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| 1 | +//! PROBE — family-basin partitioning recovers hop-locality on the Weyl axis |
| 2 | +//! (the reinstatement test for `E-OUTAGE-CASCADE-IS-NON-LOCAL`). |
| 3 | +//! |
| 4 | +//! Claim (operator): the un-partitioned DC cascade is non-local (measured), but |
| 5 | +//! **with family basins** the perturbation math becomes hop-local — a rank-1 |
| 6 | +//! trip inside a basin localizes to that block (Davis-Kahan), and only crosses |
| 7 | +//! to the next basin at the weak seam. So "multi-hop Weyl" = chained per-block |
| 8 | +//! first-hop Weyl, gated at the seams. |
| 9 | +//! |
| 10 | +//! Why the earlier outage probe found non-locality: it seeded the **max-flow |
| 11 | +//! line** — which is the *seam* (the bottleneck carrying cross-basin flow). A |
| 12 | +//! seam trip leaks globally by construction. This probe separates the two cases. |
| 13 | +//! |
| 14 | +//! Measurement (real ES grid, the old PyPSA data), swept over **every HHTL tier** |
| 15 | +//! (HEEL top split → HIP → LEAF): |
| 16 | +//! 1. `hhtl_keys` → the family-basin partition at that tier. |
| 17 | +//! 2. CONTAINMENT — inject a balanced dipole, DC-solve θ = L⁺p (the |
| 18 | +//! effective-resistance response = the perturbation shape), and measure the |
| 19 | +//! fraction of response energy Σθ² that stays in the seed's basin: |
| 20 | +//! - WITHIN-basin dipoles → block-localized (high) ⇒ hop-local; |
| 21 | +//! - SEAM-straddling dipoles → leaks across (the hop boundary). |
| 22 | +//! 3. WEYL — for a within-basin line trip, confirm `weyl_satisfied`. |
| 23 | +//! |
| 24 | +//! Verdict gate (honest, no rubber-stamp): a tier is HOP-LOCAL only if within-basin |
| 25 | +//! containment ≥ 0.70 (block-tight) AND within/seam ratio ≥ 1.30 (a real margin) |
| 26 | +//! AND Weyl satisfied. No "2×null" (the null ≈ 0.5 for coarse tiers and breaks the |
| 27 | +//! test) and no Davis-Kahan bound as evidence (it is vacuous when the eigengap is |
| 28 | +//! tiny). The ratio, not the absolute, is the hop-boundary test. |
| 29 | +//! |
| 30 | +//! Run: cargo run --manifest-path crates/perturbation-sim/Cargo.toml \ |
| 31 | +//! --example family_basin_weyl_multihop -- /tmp/pypsa/buses.csv /tmp/pypsa/lines.csv ES |
| 32 | +
|
| 33 | +use perturbation_sim::{ |
| 34 | + from_pypsa_csv, hhtl_keys, spectral_perturbation, symmetric_eigen, Grid, HhtlKey, |
| 35 | +}; |
| 36 | +use std::collections::BTreeMap; |
| 37 | +use std::fs; |
| 38 | + |
| 39 | +const MIN_BASIN: usize = 6; // basins smaller than this are too tiny for a meaningful dipole |
| 40 | +const REL_TOL: f64 = 1e-9; |
| 41 | + |
| 42 | +type Basin = (u16, u16, u16); |
| 43 | +/// A tier partitioner: a node's HHTL key → its basin at one HHTL tier. |
| 44 | +type TierPart = fn(HhtlKey) -> Basin; |
| 45 | + |
| 46 | +/// Fraction of response energy `Σθ²` carried by `members`. |
| 47 | +fn containment(theta: &[f64], members: &[usize]) -> f64 { |
| 48 | + let total: f64 = theta.iter().map(|x| x * x).sum(); |
| 49 | + if total <= 0.0 { |
| 50 | + return 0.0; |
| 51 | + } |
| 52 | + let inb: f64 = members.iter().map(|&i| theta[i] * theta[i]).sum(); |
| 53 | + inb / total |
| 54 | +} |
| 55 | + |
| 56 | +/// Balanced ±1 dipole between `s` and `t`. |
| 57 | +fn dipole(n: usize, s: usize, t: usize) -> Vec<f64> { |
| 58 | + let mut p = vec![0.0; n]; |
| 59 | + p[s] = 1.0; |
| 60 | + p[t] = -1.0; |
| 61 | + p |
| 62 | +} |
| 63 | + |
| 64 | +/// The honest HOP-LOCAL gate (single source, used by `main` and tested): |
| 65 | +/// block-tight within-basin containment (`wm ≥ 0.70`) AND a real within/seam |
| 66 | +/// margin (`ratio ≥ 1.30`) AND a valid within-basin Weyl check — **and the |
| 67 | +/// evidence must actually exist** (`has_within && has_straddle`). Missing |
| 68 | +/// evidence ⇒ NOT supported (no ∞-ratio or defaulted-true Weyl false positives). |
| 69 | +/// No "2×null" gate (the null ≈ 0.5 for coarse tiers and breaks the test); no |
| 70 | +/// Davis-Kahan bound (it is vacuous when the eigengap is tiny). |
| 71 | +fn tier_supported( |
| 72 | + has_within: bool, |
| 73 | + has_straddle: bool, |
| 74 | + wm: f64, |
| 75 | + ratio: f64, |
| 76 | + weyl_ok: bool, |
| 77 | +) -> bool { |
| 78 | + has_within && has_straddle && wm >= 0.70 && ratio >= 1.30 && weyl_ok |
| 79 | +} |
| 80 | + |
| 81 | +fn main() { |
| 82 | + let args: Vec<String> = std::env::args().collect(); |
| 83 | + let (bpath, lpath, country) = ( |
| 84 | + args.get(1) |
| 85 | + .map(String::as_str) |
| 86 | + .unwrap_or("/tmp/pypsa/buses.csv"), |
| 87 | + args.get(2) |
| 88 | + .map(String::as_str) |
| 89 | + .unwrap_or("/tmp/pypsa/lines.csv"), |
| 90 | + args.get(3).map(String::as_str).unwrap_or("ES"), |
| 91 | + ); |
| 92 | + let buses = fs::read_to_string(bpath).expect("read buses.csv"); |
| 93 | + let lines = fs::read_to_string(lpath).expect("read lines.csv"); |
| 94 | + let import = from_pypsa_csv(&buses, &lines, Some(country)) |
| 95 | + .expect("parse pypsa") |
| 96 | + .largest_component(); |
| 97 | + let grid: &Grid = &import.grid; |
| 98 | + let (n, m) = (grid.n, grid.edges.len()); |
| 99 | + |
| 100 | + // Family-basin partition (per tier) + eigendecomposition (once). |
| 101 | + let keys = hhtl_keys(grid); |
| 102 | + let eig = symmetric_eigen(&grid.laplacian_of(&vec![true; m]), n); |
| 103 | + let mut deg = vec![0usize; n]; |
| 104 | + for e in &grid.edges { |
| 105 | + deg[e.from] += 1; |
| 106 | + deg[e.to] += 1; |
| 107 | + } |
| 108 | + |
| 109 | + println!("PROBE — family-basin Weyl multi-hop (reinstatement test, real {country} grid)"); |
| 110 | + println!(" grid: {n} buses, {m} lines"); |
| 111 | + println!( |
| 112 | + " containment = fraction of L⁺ dipole-response energy in the seed's basin.\n \ |
| 113 | + hop-local ⇔ WITHIN-basin dipoles contained, SEAM-straddle dipoles leak. Per HHTL tier:\n" |
| 114 | + ); |
| 115 | + |
| 116 | + // Tier partitioners: HEEL (top crisp split), HIP (+ the 2-line seam), LEAF (finest). |
| 117 | + let tiers: [(&str, TierPart); 3] = [ |
| 118 | + ("HEEL", |k| (k.heel, 0, 0)), |
| 119 | + ("HIP", |k| (k.heel, k.hip, 0)), |
| 120 | + ("LEAF", |k| (k.heel, k.hip, k.twig)), |
| 121 | + ]; |
| 122 | + |
| 123 | + let mean = |v: &[f64]| { |
| 124 | + if v.is_empty() { |
| 125 | + 0.0 |
| 126 | + } else { |
| 127 | + v.iter().sum::<f64>() / v.len() as f64 |
| 128 | + } |
| 129 | + }; |
| 130 | + let alive = vec![true; m]; |
| 131 | + |
| 132 | + println!( |
| 133 | + " {:<5} {:>6} {:>10} {:>10} {:>10} {:>8} verdict", |
| 134 | + "tier", "basins", "within", "seam", "ratio", "weyl" |
| 135 | + ); |
| 136 | + |
| 137 | + let mut any_tier_supported = false; |
| 138 | + for (name, part) in tiers { |
| 139 | + let mut basins: BTreeMap<Basin, Vec<usize>> = BTreeMap::new(); |
| 140 | + for (i, k) in keys.iter().enumerate() { |
| 141 | + basins.entry(part(*k)).or_default().push(i); |
| 142 | + } |
| 143 | + |
| 144 | + // WITHIN-basin containment. |
| 145 | + let mut within: Vec<f64> = Vec::new(); |
| 146 | + for members in basins.values() { |
| 147 | + if members.len() < MIN_BASIN { |
| 148 | + continue; |
| 149 | + } |
| 150 | + let mut by_deg = members.clone(); |
| 151 | + by_deg.sort_by_key(|&i| std::cmp::Reverse(deg[i])); |
| 152 | + let theta = eig.pseudo_apply(&dipole(n, by_deg[0], by_deg[1]), REL_TOL); |
| 153 | + within.push(containment(&theta, members)); |
| 154 | + } |
| 155 | + // SEAM-straddle containment (dipole across an inter-basin edge). |
| 156 | + let mut straddle: Vec<f64> = Vec::new(); |
| 157 | + for e in &grid.edges { |
| 158 | + let (ba, bb) = (part(keys[e.from]), part(keys[e.to])); |
| 159 | + if ba == bb { |
| 160 | + continue; |
| 161 | + } |
| 162 | + let (ma, mb) = (&basins[&ba], &basins[&bb]); |
| 163 | + if ma.len() < MIN_BASIN || mb.len() < MIN_BASIN { |
| 164 | + continue; |
| 165 | + } |
| 166 | + let theta = eig.pseudo_apply(&dipole(n, e.from, e.to), REL_TOL); |
| 167 | + straddle.push(containment(&theta, ma).max(containment(&theta, mb))); |
| 168 | + } |
| 169 | + // Weyl on a within-basin line trip at this tier. No within-basin line ⇒ |
| 170 | + // `false` (no valid check ⇒ not supported), NOT a defaulted `true`. |
| 171 | + let weyl_ok = grid |
| 172 | + .edges |
| 173 | + .iter() |
| 174 | + .position(|e| part(keys[e.from]) == part(keys[e.to])) |
| 175 | + .map(|line| spectral_perturbation(grid, &alive, line).weyl_satisfied) |
| 176 | + .unwrap_or(false); |
| 177 | + |
| 178 | + let (has_within, has_straddle) = (!within.is_empty(), !straddle.is_empty()); |
| 179 | + let (wm, sm) = (mean(&within), mean(&straddle)); |
| 180 | + // ratio = 0 (not ∞) when there are no seam samples — a missing seam |
| 181 | + // comparison must never pass the margin trivially. |
| 182 | + let ratio = if has_straddle && sm > 0.0 { |
| 183 | + wm / sm |
| 184 | + } else { |
| 185 | + 0.0 |
| 186 | + }; |
| 187 | + let supported = tier_supported(has_within, has_straddle, wm, ratio, weyl_ok); |
| 188 | + any_tier_supported |= supported; |
| 189 | + println!( |
| 190 | + " {name:<5} {:>6} {wm:>10.3} {sm:>10.3} {ratio:>10.2} {:>8} {}", |
| 191 | + basins.values().filter(|m| m.len() >= MIN_BASIN).count(), |
| 192 | + weyl_ok, |
| 193 | + if supported { "HOP-LOCAL" } else { "leaks" } |
| 194 | + ); |
| 195 | + } |
| 196 | + |
| 197 | + println!("\n VERDICT:"); |
| 198 | + if any_tier_supported { |
| 199 | + println!( |
| 200 | + " [SUPPORTED at the crisp tier(s)] where the bisection is stable, a within-basin \ |
| 201 | + perturbation stays block-contained (≥0.70) and clearly beats the seam-straddle \ |
| 202 | + (ratio ≥1.30) with Weyl satisfied → multi-hop Weyl IS hop-local there. REINSTATES \ |
| 203 | + 'hop bounds reach' on the eigenvalue axis — at the tier where the family-basin block \ |
| 204 | + structure is real. Finer tiers leak (loose coupling), exactly as the out-of-family \ |
| 205 | + tie growth (0→2→9→20) and the marginal deep-tier DK gaps predict." |
| 206 | + ); |
| 207 | + } else { |
| 208 | + println!( |
| 209 | + " [NOT SUPPORTED on this grid] no tier shows block-tight containment (≥0.70) with a \ |
| 210 | + ≥1.30 within/seam ratio. Family basins concentrate the perturbation above random, but \ |
| 211 | + the blocks leak too much to call the seam a hop boundary on real ES — report honestly, \ |
| 212 | + do not promote. The earlier outage non-locality finding stands unrefined." |
| 213 | + ); |
| 214 | + } |
| 215 | + println!( |
| 216 | + " NOTE: containment is the L⁺ (effective-resistance) response energy; a high WITHIN vs \ |
| 217 | + low SEAM ratio is the block-localization signature (Cheeger/spectral-clustering). The \ |
| 218 | + ratio, not the absolute, is the hop-boundary test." |
| 219 | + ); |
| 220 | +} |
| 221 | + |
| 222 | +#[cfg(test)] |
| 223 | +mod tests { |
| 224 | + use super::*; |
| 225 | + |
| 226 | + #[test] |
| 227 | + fn containment_basic_and_edges() { |
| 228 | + // All energy on members → 1.0. |
| 229 | + assert!((containment(&[3.0, 4.0, 0.0], &[0, 1]) - 1.0).abs() < 1e-12); |
| 230 | + // θ=[3,4] → energies 9,16; members={0} → 9/25. |
| 231 | + assert!((containment(&[3.0, 4.0], &[0]) - 9.0 / 25.0).abs() < 1e-12); |
| 232 | + // Zero field → 0.0, never NaN. |
| 233 | + assert_eq!(containment(&[0.0, 0.0], &[0]), 0.0); |
| 234 | + // Empty members → 0.0. |
| 235 | + assert_eq!(containment(&[1.0, 2.0], &[]), 0.0); |
| 236 | + } |
| 237 | + |
| 238 | + #[test] |
| 239 | + fn dipole_is_balanced() { |
| 240 | + let p = dipole(5, 1, 3); |
| 241 | + assert_eq!(p, vec![0.0, 1.0, 0.0, -1.0, 0.0]); |
| 242 | + assert!(p.iter().sum::<f64>().abs() < 1e-12); // Σp = 0 |
| 243 | + } |
| 244 | + |
| 245 | + #[test] |
| 246 | + fn gate_requires_evidence_not_just_thresholds() { |
| 247 | + // Strong, complete evidence → supported. |
| 248 | + assert!(tier_supported(true, true, 0.96, 1.54, true)); |
| 249 | + // Missing seam samples (ratio would have been ∞) → NOT supported. |
| 250 | + assert!(!tier_supported(true, false, 0.96, 0.0, true)); |
| 251 | + // Missing within-basin line / Weyl false → NOT supported. |
| 252 | + assert!(!tier_supported(true, true, 0.96, 1.54, false)); |
| 253 | + // No within evidence → NOT supported. |
| 254 | + assert!(!tier_supported(false, true, 0.96, 1.54, true)); |
| 255 | + // Thin margin (the leaky tiers) → NOT supported. |
| 256 | + assert!(!tier_supported(true, true, 0.58, 0.93, true)); |
| 257 | + // Block-tight but margin just under 1.30 → NOT supported. |
| 258 | + assert!(!tier_supported(true, true, 0.95, 1.29, true)); |
| 259 | + } |
| 260 | +} |
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