perturbation-sim: eigenvalue-perturbation + edge-propagation outage simulator#504
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| # this sibling for its core crates, so the fork is expected present. Clean- | ||
| # checkout alternative (helix pattern): swap to | ||
| # ndarray = { git = "https://github.com/AdaWorldAPI/ndarray.git", branch = "master", optional = true, default-features = false, features = ["std"] } | ||
| ndarray = { path = "../../../ndarray", optional = true, default-features = false, features = ["std"] } |
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Because Cargo resolves optional path dependencies while loading the manifest, a checkout that does not already have the sibling ../../../ndarray cannot run the documented default command cargo test --manifest-path crates/perturbation-sim/Cargo.toml even when ndarray-simd is not enabled; in this environment it failed before compilation with unable to update /workspace/ndarray. That contradicts the crate's zero-dep default and blocks users/CI that have not run the separate sibling-clone setup.
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Fixed in f29b…→latest: switched the optional ndarray dep from a path to the git source, so a clean checkout resolves it remotely and never needs ../../../ndarray with the feature off. Verified — default cargo test (no feature) now passes (49 tests) without the local sibling.
| if alive[e] { | ||
| (flow[e] - flow_base[e]).abs() | ||
| } else { | ||
| flow_base[e].abs() |
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For any line that trips after the seed, this records the all-lines base flow rather than the overloaded flow from the round that actually caused the trip. In cascades where redistribution overloads a line that had little or zero base-case flow, edge_field underreports that trip footprint (and any downstream display of the perturbation shape) even though the line tripped because its current-round flow exceeded its limit.
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Good catch — fixed: simulate_outage now captures trip_flow[e] = flow[e] in the round each line trips, and edge_field for a tripped line uses that overload (seed/survivors default to base). Added regression test round_trip_edge_field_is_the_overload_not_base asserting a round-≥1 trip's edge_field exceeds its limit.
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P2-1 (Cargo.toml): the optional ndarray dep was a PATH dep — Cargo reads the path manifest at resolution, so a clean checkout without ../../../ndarray failed even with ndarray-simd OFF, breaking the zero-dep default. Switched to the GIT source (helix pattern): it resolves remotely and is only fetched/built when the feature activates it. Verified: default `cargo test` now resolves the git dep without any local sibling — 49 tests pass. P2-2 (cascade.rs): edge_field recorded the all-lines BASE flow for lines that trip in later rounds, underreporting redistribution-driven trips (a line with ~0 base flow that trips on a large redistributed flow showed ~0 footprint). Now capture trip_flow[e] = the current-round flow at the round each line trips (seed/survivors default to base); edge_field for a tripped line uses that overload. New regression test round_trip_edge_field_is_the_overload_not_base asserts a round-≥1 trip's edge_field exceeds its limit. 49 tests pass; clippy -D warnings clean; fmt clean.
Standalone zero-dep research crate (excluded, like jc/sigker/helix) that models the perturbation shape of a cascading grid failure — the applied companion to crates/jc and the genuine eigenvalue-perturbation result the math-theorem harvest flagged as missing (jc::weyl is equidistribution, not the spectral-perturbation inequality). Two composed halves: - Spectral perturbation (perturbation.rs, eigen.rs): a line trip = rank-1 perturbation E of the weighted Laplacian (‖E‖₂ = 2·b_k). Certifies Weyl |λᵢ(L')−λᵢ(L)| ≤ ‖E‖₂, reports Davis–Kahan Fiedler rotation sinθ ≤ ‖E‖₂/gap, tracks algebraic connectivity λ₂ (drop toward 0 = fragmentation precursor). - Edge propagation (flow.rs, cascade.rs, graph.rs): DC power flow θ=L⁺p, f_e=b_e(θ_a−θ_b); trip redistributes flow, overloaded lines trip in turn (cascade recomputed exactly each round), islanding detected via Laplacian nullity. Output PerturbationShape: per-bus angle-deviation field + per-line flow-shift field + trip footprint. node_field is ready for predicted-vs-observed validity (ndarray::hpc::reliability Pearson/Spearman/ICC), with Jirak n^(p/2−1) significance, not IID Berry–Esseen. Pure std; cyclic-Jacobi symmetric eigensolver. 13 tests (Weyl holds per line, Davis–Kahan bounds rotation, bridge cut collapses connectivity, LODF matches full recompute, islanding flagged). clippy -D warnings clean, fmt clean. Example `simulate` prints the full spectral + cascade + shape report.
…example + HARVESTING.md - ingest.rs: zero-dep, schema-flexible (column-alias) quote-aware CSV loader from_pypsa_csv(buses, lines, country) → PypsaImport. b=1/x (estimated from length+circuits at 0.33 Ω/km when absent), limit=s_nom (estimated by voltage class when absent); reports n_estimated_* for honest disclosure. ISO-2 country filter. PypsaImport::largest_component() (DFS) to drop the fragmentation that a country filter induces (cross-border ties + OSM gaps → λ₂≈0). - examples/iberian.rs: loads the Zenodo 13358976 (ODbL) network, restricts to the connected core, synthesizes deterministic balanced injections, self-calibrates limits, trips the most-loaded line, prints spectral + cascade + geo epicentre. Graceful no-args usage (prints download recipe, exits 0). - HARVESTING.md: process for any source/country — PyPSA-Eur/OSM (verified v0.3 schema, metres/kV + fragmentation gotchas), Overpass/GridKit alternatives, ENTSO-E/ESIOS/Electricity-Maps live state, the column-alias contract, parameter derivation + honesty, and the predicted-vs-observed ICC/Jirak loop. Validated end-to-end on real ES data: 705→261-bus connected core, one trip cascades to 71/348 lines (20.4%), 21% connectivity loss, 43 islands; epicentre clusters in northern Spain. 18 tests pass (4 ingest + 1 LCC new); clippy -D warnings clean, fmt clean.
…tive resistance + Go-meta) + METHODS.md
basin.rs — the field half of the infight-vs-Raumgewinn duality, all four tools
as functions of the one Laplacian operator:
- kron_reduce: Schur complement L/L_II — basin→super-node, cross-border tiering;
preserves effective resistance (Dörfler-Bullo), tested.
- effective_resistance + spectral_embedding: R_ij = (eᵢ−eⱼ)ᵀL⁺(eᵢ−eⱼ) metric and
electrical coordinates — the CORRECT substrate for Morton/HHTL tiling (geography
is not). Metric (triangle-inequality) tested.
- cheeger_sweep: normalized μ₂ + Fiedler sweep conductance with the Cheeger
sandwich μ₂/2 ≤ h ≤ φ ≤ √(2μ₂) — the field↔cut exchange rate, both bounds tested.
- basin_lambda2 + Cauchy interlacing (tested) — per-tier field eigenvalue bounds
the parent; HHTL hierarchy is spectrally consistent.
- infight_vs_raumgewinn → Regime{Infight,Raumgewinn,Balanced} (Go-meta); bridge
cut classified Raumgewinn, tested.
- contingency_features → [Δλ₂, DK-rotation, Δφ, infight, raumgewinn]: the four
methods' properties as per-contingency measurement variables.
METHODS.md — mathematical grounding connecting all four (one operator L; its L⁺,
spec, normalized spec, Schur complement), the anti-dilution table (combinatorial
λ₂ vs normalized μ₂; geography vs electrical distance; Weyl-equidistribution vs
Weyl-perturbation; reliability vs validity; IID vs Jirak), and the statistics
design: the four as a measurement battery → ICC/Pearson/Spearman/Cronbach with
mutual control variables via partial correlation r(x,y|z), convergent/discriminant
validity, and Jirak n^(p/2−1) significance (not IID Berry-Esseen).
26 tests pass; clippy -D warnings clean; fmt clean.
…field-tier synergy) + METHODS §6-8 sketch.rs (PROTOTYPE) — the fast-sketch synergy: - resistance_sketch: Spielman-Srivastava effective resistance from k random ±1 sign-projections (= vsa_bundle of sign fingerprints); R≈‖z_u−z_v‖², exact in expectation (MᵀM=L), JL-concentrated. Tested <12% rel-err at k=6000. - walsh_pyramid_energy + fwht: Walsh/Morton pyramid coarse(Raumgewinn)↔fine (infight) collapse screen, O(N log N). Tested smooth=coarse, spike=fine, fwht∘fwht=N·I. - Honest: dense L⁺ (accuracy demo, not the speed win — needs a fast solver); Walsh=eigenbasis only on hypercubes (a screen, eigensolve certifies); Jirak error bars. splat.rs (PROTOTYPE) — the Gaussian-splat magnitude side: - splat_neighborhood: SPD Σ fit to a bus's electrical neighbourhood (spectral embedding, resistance-weighted); anisotropy ≈ cut normal. Splats in electrical coords, NOT geography. Tested symmetric+PSD. - ewa_coarsen vs box_coarsen + morton2: EWA anisotropic-Gaussian pyramid coarsen anti-aliases the Morton Z-jump seam. Tested wide-σ→box, tight-σ suppresses a seam outlier (box≈34→EWA≈1), morton2 known codes. - Together §6+§7 = the OGAR bipolar-phase pyramid (sign=Walsh/XOR × magnitude= EWA/bundle), two-algebra rule respected. METHODS.md §6/§7 document both; §8 frames the physical-fidelity ladder as ITERATIONS on one extensible L-operator design (cheap→medium→fork adds columns + swaps solver, never rewrites the field tier), not a limiting DC-vs-AC fork. Anti-dilution table + README module map updated. 33 tests pass; clippy -D warnings clean; fmt clean.
…ing hypotheses (METHODS §9) Runs on today's topology-only data; computes only what the data supports; models missing per-asset variables as UNIFORM CONSTANTS (never noise — a constant injects no spurious heterogeneity, so relative shape + ranking stay clean). - DataLevel / Capability / assess_capability: which outputs are valid (relative shape always; absolute MW / loss gradient / tech-debt differential gated on data presence). - scale_susceptance + invariance test: uniform b-scale leaves flows, cascade, connectivity_loss EXACTLY invariant (λ₂→c·λ₂ cancels) — the math license for "assume Spain uniformly outdated" as a free relative-analysis null. - with_uniform_derate: the global stress knob (not invariant; sweep + disclose). - AgeModel: Uniform (null) vs DensityProxy (the Gegenhypothese — sparse/ low-degree rural areas older, derived from topology ALONE, genuine heterogeneity) vs ModernizationSpend (per-bus newness from official Spanish grid-planning data). edge_age_factors + apply_aging (age→thermal derate). - The three AgeModels are competing hypotheses, validated against the observed Spain-outage footprint via the §5 ICC/Pearson/Spearman battery (Jirak-sig) — turning the aging assumption into a falsifiable claim. METHODS §9 documents it + cites the official data sources (planificacionelectrica .es 2021-26/2025-30 plan ~260 projects PDF; MITECO portals; REE ISE_2024). Anti-dilution rows + README updated. 38 tests pass; clippy -D warnings clean; fmt clean.
…layer Consolidates every external source into one ledger (anti-dilution), organized by the layer it feeds: (1) topology+params (PyPSA-Eur/OSM, GridKit, Overpass), (2) live state (ENTSO-E/ESIOS/Electricity-Maps), (3) modernization/spend (Spanish planificacionelectrica.es 2021-26/2025-30, MITECO portals, REE ISE_2024), (4) renewable+storage context (Climate17, NECP 22.5 GW storage). Each row states format/openness/extraction reality so no layer over-claims data it cannot read. Flags the genuine new modeling axis the storage sources imply: storage = a controllable injection (Pearl rung-2 do(p_i += discharge)) → a future intervention.rs quantifying storage as collapse-prevention, slotting onto the existing cascade with no field-tier change.
…s-overload validation caveat DATA_SOURCES §5 (ground truth) + Awesome-Electrical-Grid-Mapping meta-source: - ENTSO-E expert-panel final report (2026-03-20): the 28 Apr 2025 Iberian blackout was a VOLTAGE-COLLAPSE event — overvoltage-driven cascading generation disconnection + oscillations + reactive/voltage-control gaps — NOT a line-overload cascade. - Eurosurveillance 30/26 + PMC12231376: human footprint — 147 excess deaths over 3 days (+4.2%; 65-84yo +7.9%), MoMo surveillance (severity target). Critical honesty caveat (DATA_SOURCES §5 + METHODS anti-dilution rows): the DC overload cascade does NOT reproduce the Iberian sequence; the voltage trigger needs the AC fork (METHODS §8). What transfers is the mechanism-agnostic STRUCTURAL field tier (Weyl/Cheeger/Fiedler/Kron) as a vulnerability screen, and the Go-meta Raumgewinn lens for a system-wide event. Human footprint validates severity (any mechanism) via the §5 ICC battery; ties to the public-health surface. Guards against over-claiming "we model the Iberian blackout".
… 2024 — the empirical condition layer REE Auditoria Calidad de Servicio RdT 2024 (availability, ENS, interruption indices per element/region) is the measured condition/reliability data that lifts the tech-debt modifier from the topology DensityProxy to real per-region condition (DataLevel::WithHeterogeneousAssets): low availability / high ENS = older/weaker asset = newness down. PDF → per-region condition index → newness vector for AgeModel::ModernizationSpend.
…tion, 11 Apr 2025) i-DE (Iberdrola DSO) capacity map = the distribution-layer complement to the REE/PyPSA transmission layer: per-substation (Umspannwerk) available connection capacity. Saturated substations (~0 headroom) = candidate stressed nodes feeding AgeModel; dated 17 days pre-blackout = a near-contemporaneous as-of snapshot. Map-style PDF → OCR/parse to a substation→capacity table.
…the ENTSO-E full report Harvested the 50 MB ENTSO-E final report PDF (text-extracted) into a concrete, numbers-quoted validation target in DATA_SOURCES §5: - pre-conditions: ~5 GW exports; damped 0.63 Hz local + 0.2 Hz inter-area oscillations. - 12:32:00 voltages rise; 12:33:16-18 overvoltage-protection cascade (~525/727/ 928/355 MW chunks); 12:33:20.473 Morocco AC trip; 12:33:21.535 France-Spain AC disconnect (the cut isolating Iberia); 12:33:23.960 HVDC trip → full separation; frequency → ~48 Hz. Mechanism→model split made explicit: the TRIGGER (overvoltage gen trips, ~24 s) is AC/reactive → AC fork only; the SEPARATION (FR-ES AC+HVDC disconnect) IS a connectivity cut → the field tier (Cheeger min-cut / Fiedler λ₂ / Kron) does model the separation geometry. Field tier = structural screen + separation; AC fork = the voltage trigger. Sharpens the anti-over-claim caveat with receipts.
acflow.rs (the fork rung) — polar Newton-Raphson AC power flow on the full π-model (R+jX+jB/2): AcSystem/AcBus/AcLine, ybus (complex), solve() with a convergence flag (divergence = voltage-collapse signal), collapse_margin (the loading nose). New types; DC field tier untouched (METHODS §8 iterations-not- fork). This is the rung that models the voltage mechanism the Iberian blackout actually exhibited. Tests: flat no-load, self-consistent NR balance, Ybus symmetry, heavy-load divergence, finite collapse margin. PROTOTYPE (no PV/PQ Q-limit switching, no taps). stats.rs — zero-dep reliability/validity (Pearson, tie-aware Spearman, Cronbach α, ICC(2,1), zscore), mirroring ndarray::hpc::reliability. Tests incl. the ICC-catches-bias-Pearson-misses signature. examples/validate.rs — computes modifiers from the data we have (topology DensityProxy / Gegenhypothese), applies aging, sweeps a fixed contingency set across time slices, extracts the 4 field factors per contingency, runs the battery (Cronbach α + ICC + pairwise Spearman) + time test-retest. On the 5x5 synthetic: d_lambda2 ≡ raumgewinn (both λ₂-derived), negative α confirms the factors are DISTINCT facets (infight vs Raumgewinn), not one scale — exactly the discriminant-validity result expected. 48 tests pass; clippy -D warnings clean; fmt clean.
… committed) Created GitHub Release perturbation-sim-data-v0.1 on AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph with buses.csv + lines.csv (PyPSA-Eur/OSM, ODbL, © OSM contributors) attached as assets — so clones never auto-pull the data and the repo stays lean. Official Spanish PDFs remain links-only (not re-hosted, licensing). DATA_SOURCES.md + HARVESTING.md updated with the release mirror curl recipe and a no-data-in-git note.
…amid) + helix-360/turbovec live-encoding doctrine - ndarray-simd feature (optional, off by default → crate stays zero-dep): the Morton/Walsh pyramid transform (sketch::walsh_pyramid_energy) routes through ndarray::simd::wht_f32 (AVX-512/AMX, x86-64-v4) when enabled; scalar fwht fallback otherwise. ndarray = AdaWorldAPI fork (path dep; git alternative documented). Verified: 48 tests + clippy clean under BOTH default and `--features ndarray-simd` (target-cpu=native); the fork compiles in ~20s. - METHODS §10: documents the wiring + the deeper tile-specific ndarray targets (simd_soa::MultiLaneColumn, hpc::codec::ctu HEVC-quadtree, hilbert, U8x64/ hamming). And the live-4-factor-encoding doctrine: the factors are unit-free spectral magnitudes → carry them on the GENERIC helix Signed360 residue tenant (6B/factor, L1-metric-safe so Spearman/ICC survive the encoding), NOT an electricity-specific tenant; turbovec ANN for episodic factor-vector search; electricity-specific encoding reserved for the raw |V|/MW layer; compute stays on raw f64. Anti-dilution rows + README updated. Real-Iberian validate (261-bus core, release build): Cronbach α=-0.83 (factors are distinct facets, not one scale), spectral cluster convergent (ρ 0.96-1.00), infight orthogonal to it (ρ≈±0.05 — discriminant validity = the Go duality measured), time test-retest ρ≈0.90 (basin ranking stable). Basin model verified.
…mpts, canonical caption Reproducible spec for the perturbation-shape figure: the canonical caption with the measured numbers, the non-negotiable rigor points (λ₂≠μ₂, factor symbols, the DC-screen honesty disclaimer, illustrative-topology label), and two prompts (journal-figure for the math/stats audience; dark pitch variant for talks). Travels with the crate; final PNGs go under docs/.
…theorem mapping Adds the second figure spec: the stacked 2-bit×2-bit (4×4) Morton/z-order pyramid for spatial perturbation, with each theorem mapped to its pyramid structure — Weyl/Δλ₂ at the coarse top, Davis-Kahan/sinθ_DK at the reorienting partition, Cheeger/Δφ on the inter-tile seam (the exchange rate), infight at the fine bottom, Kron on the 4→1 coarsen arrow. Two algebras labelled (Walsh/XOR sign axis, EWA-splat magnitude axis); the bipolar-phase = Walsh-Hadamard identity; and the geography-trap + screen-not-exact + SIMD-WHT honesty strip.
P2-1 (Cargo.toml): the optional ndarray dep was a PATH dep — Cargo reads the path manifest at resolution, so a clean checkout without ../../../ndarray failed even with ndarray-simd OFF, breaking the zero-dep default. Switched to the GIT source (helix pattern): it resolves remotely and is only fetched/built when the feature activates it. Verified: default `cargo test` now resolves the git dep without any local sibling — 49 tests pass. P2-2 (cascade.rs): edge_field recorded the all-lines BASE flow for lines that trip in later rounds, underreporting redistribution-driven trips (a line with ~0 base flow that trips on a large redistributed flow showed ~0 footprint). Now capture trip_flow[e] = the current-round flow at the round each line trips (seed/survivors default to base); edge_field for a tripped line uses that overload. New regression test round_trip_edge_field_is_the_overload_not_base asserts a round-≥1 trip's edge_field exceeds its limit. 49 tests pass; clippy -D warnings clean; fmt clean.
… + Cheeger boundary examples/weakest_links.rs: on a grid (real PyPSA core via args, else synthetic), reports (1) STRUCTURAL weakest links — per-line single-trip λ₂-loss (Weyl/Fiedler, limit-independent; flags bridges whose trip alone disconnects the core), (2) the CHEEGER local boundary — the min-conductance sweep cut (μ₂, φ, which buses on the small side, which lines cross the seam = the 'flap'), (3) OPERATIONAL weakest links — per-line N-1 cascade size under self-calibrated limits. Clippy-clean.
The ndarray-simd Walsh-Hadamard path uses AVX-512 under x86-64-v4 — NOT AMX. AMX is int8/bf16 tile-GEMM (ndarray::hpc::amx_matmul); this crate's WHT is f32 and its field tier f64, neither of which maps to AMX tiles. Corrected the loose 'AVX-512/AMX' wording in Cargo.toml/README/METHODS §10; noted the int8 AMX path (matmul_i8_to_i32) as a possible-but-unwired future option.
… + AMX two-sided note weakest_links example: replaced the O(m) full-eigensolve structural sweep with first-order Fiedler sensitivity ∂λ₂/∂wₑ = (v₂[a]−v₂[b])²·bₑ — one eigensolve ranks all m lines, exact λ₂-loss recomputed only for the top 10 (bridge flag); operational cascade bounded to the top-25 candidates (max_rounds 16). The full N-1 cascade sweep was intractable (timeout). METHODS §10: corrected the AMX note to the two-sided picture — sign side (Walsh/XOR WHT) = AVX-512 f32, wired here; magnitude side (EWA-splat / Morton tile) = AMX bf16/int8 tile-GEMM in ndarray (bf16_tile_gemm/amx_matmul/edge_codec), genuinely AMX-backed but not yet wired in this crate.
…ation
Susceptances are ~6e-5 (estimated from line length in metres), so the Fiedler
sensitivities are ~1e-8 and printed as 0.00000 in fixed notation — misleading.
Switched to {:.3e}; the ranking (line 150 top, sens 2.07e-8 / λ₂-loss 39%) and
base λ₂ = 3.15e-7 (the OSM ES core is very weakly connected) now read correctly.
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Bilingual (English + German, section-parallel) write-up: abstract, the one-operator grounding, the four-theorem method + DC/AC, data + honesty, results (factor battery α=-0.83/ICC=-0.11/convergent 0.96-1.00/infight⊥field ±0.05/ test-retest 0.90; weakest-links + Cheeger boundary on the real 261-bus ES core: the seam crosses exactly the top-2 structural weak links 46 & 150, λ₂-loss ~20-39%, operational 23/25 cascade & island), solar/wind feed-in threshold takeaways, limitations (DC-screen-not-voltage-event), conclusion, references. All numbers reproducible via the crate examples; significance via the Jirak rate.
… PAPER §4.3 examples/hhtl_levels.rs: recursive spectral (Cheeger/Fiedler) bisection builds the HHTL tree (HEEL→HIP→TWIG→LEAF); at each tier computes Weyl (per-basin λ₂), Davis-Kahan (gap λ₃−λ₂), Cheeger (μ₂/φ), and Kron (super-graph: #basins + out-of-family ties). On the real ES core the readings cohere: λ₂ rises monotone HEEL→LEAF (Cauchy interlacing), and the HIP tier has exactly 2 out-of-family ties = lines 46 & 150 = the weakest links the other analyses found. PAPER §4.3 records the table + the OGAR mapping (a 2nd inter-basin corridor = a 3rd out-of-family EdgeBlock slot, λ₂ gain bounded by interlacing).
… (Braess) finding examples/reinforce.rs: adds the optimal 3rd corridor across the Cheeger seam (Fiedler-extreme pair, max ∂λ₂/∂w; an OGAR 3rd out-of-family EdgeBlock edge), measures exact Δλ₂ and the seam-line cascade before/after. Headline scientific finding (ES core, buses 1199–4258): the corridor raises λ₂ by +136% AND lowers connectivity-loss (39.0%→34.4%) — yet the cascade WORSENS (48→95 trips). One intervention moves the two axes in OPPOSITE directions: Raumgewinn improves, infight worsens — the measured infight⊥Raumgewinn orthogonality (ρ≈0.05) realized in a single experiment, a power-grid Braess paradox. Constructive solution (PAPER §4.4): match the remedy to the failure axis — a corridor (λ₂/Cheeger/Kron) fixes separation/islanding; an overload cascade needs limit re-rating/redispatch, and structural reinforcement must be co-designed with limit upgrades or it backfires. The Go-meta Regime classifier says which axis a contingency loads. Bilingual EN/DE.
… HHTL residents (§4.5/§4.6) - timing.rs: the cascade clock. rounds=hops; inertia sets time-per-hop via the swing equation RoCoF=f₀·ΔP/2H (rocof_hz_per_s, per_hop_time). cascade_wall_time / implied_dt_per_hop; mechanism_from_timescale (the 27 s = electromechanical tell). HHTL_WEIGHTS (4:1→1:4 HEEL→LEAF) + tier_composite (per-tier R/I blend). collapse_number Π = (raumgewinn·spread)/(infight·inertia) = (time·distance)/ (...) — proposed scaling law [H], inverse correlation. 53 tests. - examples/hhtl_resident.rs: HH=Raumgewinn(λ₂) vs TL=infight per basin → measured on ES leaf basins: Pearson +0.53, Spearman +0.44, ICC +0.55 (POSITIVELY coupled) — vs global ρ≈0.05 (orthogonal). The orthogonality is SCALE-DEPENDENT → motivates per-tier weighting. - PAPER §4.5 (scale-dependent coupling) + §4.6 (time mediator, inertia clock, 27 s tell, per-tier weights, the Π collapse-number law). Bilingual EN/DE. clippy -D warnings clean; fmt clean.
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Jun 16, 2026
…fail-first scorecard Builds on the #504 base (eigenvalue-perturbation + edge-propagation simulator), adding the cognitive/decision layers and the spectral exploration battery. All additive to crates/perturbation-sim; nothing else in the workspace changes. New modules (src/): timing (meta-hop cascade + inertia×phase between-level model + collapse number), rolling_floor (HDR/Belichtungsmesser early-exit over the L1-L4 HHTL eigenmode tiers + weyl_over_fiedler modifier), resilience (λ₂ + Kirchhoff index = the self-inverse L⁺ certificate, read once), buffer (impulse storage + Ketchup yield — the transient axis, orthogonal to λ₂/Kirchhoff). New examples: meta_hops, validate_mediators (Pearson/Spearman/Cronbach α/ICC battery), modifier_validity, rolling_floor, resilience, buffer, explore (self-inverse + interlacing + equitability + analytic + N-2 probes), scorecard (cross-country fail-first investment locator). Findings (real Iberian/European PyPSA cores, all graded in PAPER §4.7-§4.13): - self-inverse reference L↔L⁺ verified exact in code (MP identities 1e-13); analytic λ₂/Kf match path/cycle/complete closed forms — engine sound [G]. - validity battery: Fiedler edge-sensitivity is the valid cascade-size predictor (ρ=0.77); reliability ICC 0.71 / Cronbach α 0.91. - the modifier m=Weyl×(1/Fiedler) was confounded with the Kirchhoff index (1/λ₂ is its dominant term); the BUFFER (inertia storage) is the genuinely independent axis (Spearman(λ₂,buffer)≈0). - resilience as a perturbation-agnostic certificate (read once, never re-predict), dissolving the circularity; reinforcement raises λ₂ +136% / lowers Kf −27%. - cross-country: equitability never holds on real grids; FR top cut ambiguous (gap/λ₂=0.37); N-2 super-additivity up to 3.55×; the France paradox (lowest λ₂ yet stable via nuclear buffer) validates the two-axis split. - fail-first investment locator: binding constraint → product (buffer→synchronous inertia; Spain −50%), the predictive-vulnerability case. Honest scope: topology measured; inertia/policy are transparent priors. 67 lib tests; clippy -D warnings clean; fmt clean.
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What
A new standalone research crate
crates/perturbation-sim(zero-dep default,excluded likejc/sigker/helix) that models the perturbation shape of a cascading grid failure — the applied companion tocrates/jc. It supplies the genuine eigenvalue-perturbation result the math-theorem harvest flagged as missing (jc::weylis equidistribution, not the spectral-perturbation inequality), composed with edge-propagation cascade dynamics.Everything is deterministic, pure-
stdby default, and tested (48 tests,clippy -D warningsclean,fmtclean).Modules
graph/flow/cascadePerturbationShape(per-bus Δθ + per-line Δflow + trip footprint)eigen/perturbationbasininfight_vs_raumgewinn,contingency_features(the 4 factors)acflowcollapse_margin) — the rung that models the voltage mechanism the Iberian blackout actually exhibitedsketchndarray::simd::wht_f32via--features ndarray-simd)splatΣfit + EWA Morton-seam anti-aliasmodelCapability, uniform-constant invariance,AgeModel(Uniform null / DensityProxy Gegenhypothese / ModernizationSpend)statsndarray::hpc::reliability)ingestValidated on the real Iberian grid (261-bus core)
infightorthogonal to it (ρ ≈ ±0.05) → discriminant validity = the Go duality, measured.Honest scope (kept front-and-centre in
METHODS.md+DATA_SOURCES.md)n_estimated_*); missing per-asset data modeled as uniform constants, never noise.Data
Topology is not committed — published as GitHub Release
perturbation-sim-data-v0.1(PyPSA-Eur/OSM, ODbL, © OSM contributors). Official Spanish PDFs are links-only (not re-hosted). Full provenance inDATA_SOURCES.md.Docs
METHODS.md(§0–§10: one-operator grounding, the 4 methods, the stats battery + control variables, fast-sketch, splat, the iterative fidelity ladder, data-shaped scoping, SIMD + live-encoding doctrine),HARVESTING.md,DATA_SOURCES.md,README.md.Notes
Cargo.tomlexcludeentry; nothing in the existing workspace changes. Rebased clean onto currentmain(post fix(plans)+test: #500 review — OCR rides Full not Compressed; OCR-RT gate exact #502/docs(genetics): probe spec v1 + Salient cite-rot fix #503).ada-docs(separate repo).https://claude.ai/code/session_01CcpLeEC3XK8Eye53GKBVvi
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