🔮 Autonomous Prediction Market Oracle

Multi-agent consensus oracle for decentralized prediction markets. Three independent AI agents fetch data → majority vote → resolves the market.

Architecture

User creates market ("BTC > $100k by June 1?")
         ↓
  Users place YES/NO bets
         ↓
  Resolution date arrives
         ↓
┌─────────────────────────────┐
│   Agent 1: CoinGecko API    │  ← free, no key
│   Agent 2: Binance API      │  ← free, no key
│   Agent 3: LLM Oracle       │  ← Groq / GLM / OpenRouter
└─────────────────────────────┘
         ↓
  Majority vote (2 of 3) → YES / NO / INVALID
         ↓
  Winners paid from pool

Quick Start — Deno Deploy (recommended, free)

1. Fork this repo on GitHub
2. Go to dash.deno.com → New Project → Link GitHub repo
3. Set entry point: main.ts
4. In Settings → Environment Variables, add:
   • GROQ_API_KEY — from console.groq.com (free)
   • Optionally: GLM_API_KEY, OPENROUTER_KEY
5. Deploy → your oracle is live!

Local Development

cp .env.example .env
# Edit .env with your keys

deno task dev
# Open http://localhost:8000

Free Data Sources

Agent	Source	API Key Required
Agent 1	CoinGecko Public API	❌ None
Agent 2	Binance Public API	❌ None
Agent 3	Groq (llama-3.1-8b)	✅ Free tier
Agent 3	Zhipu GLM-4-Flash	✅ Free tier
Agent 3	OpenRouter (free models)	✅ Free tier

For crypto markets: Agents 1 & 2 fetch real prices, Agent 3 uses LLM. For sports / politics / custom: All 3 agents use LLM reasoning.

Supported Market Categories

• Crypto — price threshold questions (BTC > $X, ETH > $Y, etc.)
• Sports — match outcomes (team X wins, score > Y)
• Politics — election results, policy decisions
• Custom — anything with a clear YES/NO resolution rule

Resolution Rules Examples

"price > $100000"          → BTC/ETH price check
"price >= $5000"           → Ethereum milestone
"team wins the match"      → LLM evaluates news
"bill passes senate"       → LLM evaluates news

API Endpoints

GET  /api/markets              → list all markets
GET  /api/markets/:id          → get market detail
POST /api/markets/create       → create a new market
POST /api/markets/:id/bet      → place a bet
POST /api/markets/:id/resolve  → trigger 3-agent resolution
GET  /api/stats                → platform statistics
GET  /api/logs                 → audit log
GET  /health                   → health check

Stack

• Runtime: Deno Deploy (edge, free tier)
• Storage: Deno KV (built-in, free)
• Agents: Fetch + LLM APIs
• Frontend: Single-file, no build step

License

MIT