Merge pull request #2 from BreakingBytes/snake-dike-risk-assessment

Create Climbing-life-lessons-risk.md

Author: mikofski

content/Climbing-life-lessons-risk.md

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+Title: Climbing Life Lessons: Reassessing Changing Risk
+Date: 2023-07-14
+Category: Productivity
+Tags: project-management, project-planning, research, rant, risk-management
+Authors: Mark Mikofski
+Summary: Reassessing risk as conditions change is critical in the backcountry.
+
+# Reassessing Risk in Mountians
+
+[Snake Dike](http://www.supertopo.com/rock-climbing/Yosemite-Valley-Half-Dome-Snake-Dike)
+is on the southwest shoulder of Half Dome, perhaps the most recognizable rock face in
+Yosemite Valley. Although considered a moderate climb, rated 5.7 R, it's sometimes called
+"Snake Hike" because it's a serious commitment with huge exposure.
+
+![Snake Dike Approach](images/P2010025.JPG)
+
+Understanding risk on Snake Dike is important. This climb requires planning, good timing,
+a bit of skill, and lots of luck. More importantly though, you need to be constantly
+aware of changing conditions, how they can affect your risk, and whether bailing is still
+an easy option. Evaluating risk is one of climbing's life lessons.
+
+![Snake Dike Rainout](images/P2010019.JPG)
+
+Snake Dike is an all day climb. The approach is a 6 mile, 3-hour hike up 2500-ft that starts
+at Happy Isles behind Curry Village and follows the Mist Trail, one of my favorites.
+Unfortunately, our 4am start was quickly foiled by rain, but our good timing gave us some
+flexibility, so we decided to wait it out for at least an hour and then reassess. Lucky for us
+our patience was rewarded, and within the hour we were back on the trail. We decided to pick up
+the pace a bit to make up for the lost time. Getting caught in a thunderstrom can have deadly
+consequences for climbers, so even though there was no rain in the forecast that day, we didn't
+know if the weather would turn bad again later that afternoon. Same as for climbers, descending
+the cables from Half Dome in a thunderstorm is a death sentence. We also didn't want to hike out
+in the dark, although we had brought our torches and some emergency overnight gear just in case.
+There's always trade offs to consider in the backcountry, so we tried to pack as lightly as we
+could to move fast yet still be safe. There's a saying in the mountains:
+
+> Speed is saftey.
+
+It means don't waste time, so we didn't. Ok, well maybe we stopped to take a few photos of the
+breathtaking views near Lost Lake.
+
+![Snake Dike Photo Opp](images/P2010026.jpg)
+
+I had climbed Snake Dike once before with a large group of experienced climbers, and I'd been on the
+Mist Trail numerous times, so I had good intuition for finding the right path to turn off the trail,
+and miraculously we nailed the approach. We ate a quick snack, tied on our climbing shoes, strapped
+on our harnesses, clipped on a light rack (mostly slings & quickdraws), and tackled the first pitch
+which is actually one of the 5.7 cruxes of the climb. The "R" stands for "runout" which means there's
+no protection. That pretty much describes most of Snake Dike, but the first pitch is especially gnarly.
+It starts on typical Yosemite glacial polish with tiny microedges that you can friction climb up to a
+roof where you can finally place your first solid piece and exhale a huge sigh of relief. If you slip on
+this slab, you'll get some serious scrapes as you tumble back to the base of the climb. In researching
+for this blog, I read an
+[incident report from YOSAR](https://www.nps.gov/yose/blogs/rescue-from-near-snake-dike-half-dome.htm)
+about a couple that were off route but slipped on similar frictiony slab, tumbled to the base, and
+dragged the belayer, who was not clipped to anything, off her ledge and into a talus field. She had a
+punctured lung, a fractured pelvis, and broke two vertebra. Climbing can be especially dangerous if
+you're unlucky, don't  take precautions, and fail to assess your risk carefully. I'm not trying to
+scare you, lots of things are dangerous, that's why it's important to know your risk and make conscious
+decisions. Anyway, I pulled the roof, shimmied up to the ledge and made the only anchor with pro I'd
+need during the entire climb. From there on out is was bolt city.
+
+![Snake Dike First Anchor](images/P2010027.JPG)
+
+That's the SERENE anchor, a cordelet with 3 equalized cams, _a la_
+[climbing anchors by John Long](http://falcon.com/books/9780762782079). Pay attention
+to that black webbing because it's got a bit part in this story later on. I swear
+my second has a backup clove hitch on a 4th piece out of the frame you can't see,
+so he can escape the belay.
+
+![Snake Dike Crux Pitch](images/P2010028.JPG)
+
+There's one more sketchy traverse on frictiony slab protected by a single bolt,
+and then the rest of Snake Dike is all jugs and 5 easy. You should download the
+[free supertopo](http://www.supertopo.com/topos/yosemite/snakedike.pdf) if you're
+serious about climbing Snake Dike. I had tried to memorize it, because there are so
+many bolts on this climb that it's easy to either stop early or skip an anchor.
+People talk about girth hitching chicken heads but the dike doesn't really take
+protection. It's just a long juggy extrusion that you follow like a ladder.
+
+![Snake Dike The Dike](images/P2010029.JPG)
+
+All the rest of the pitches are juggy and positive but super runout with just a single
+bolt every 60 feet or so. In fact, some of the pitches don't have _any_ bolts!
+Another interesting twist is that every so often you come across a pair of bolts that
+looks like an anchor, but is for shorter ropes. Knowing where to belay is part of route
+finding that can speed up your climb and remember, "speed is safety!" Clip the
+wrong bolts though, and you might find yourself and your partner simul-climbing.
+
+![Snake Dike Runout Bols](images/P2010030.JPG)
+
+The climbing was smooth, and the views were spectacular. Take a moment to
+appreciate this sweeping vista starting to your left past Glacier Point right
+to the valley floor. Is that El Cap off in the distance? 
+
+![Snake Dike View L](images/P2010034.JPG)
+![Snake Dike View M](images/P2010033.JPG)
+![Snake Dike View R](images/P2010032.JPG)
+
+Look just a little further to the left though, and you can see what I was seeing.
+Dark clouds gathering around Liberty Cap and Mt. Broderick were moving our way. We
+needed to pick up the pace, or we would end up with only bad options.
+
+![Snake Dike Dark Clouds](images/P2010036.JPG)
+![Snake Dike Liberty Cap & Mt. Broderick](images/P2010035.JPG)
+
+Is there anything that is purely deterministic? I believe almost every event has
+a distribution of possible outcomes, some good, some great, some bad, and some
+very bad. Lucky or not, those possibilities aren't usually random, some outcomes
+are more likely than others. So now I had to weigh the odds that we could summit
+and decend before it start raining. The main danger for climbers in the rain is
+lightning. For a quick primer check out this Climbing Magazine article,
+[Don't Get Struck By Lightning](https://www.climbing.com/skills/learn-this-laws-of-lightning/).
+
+In my haste, I made a tactical error. After clipping a pair of anchor bolts,
+I decided to pass them thinking they were for shorter ropes, but before I knew
+it I was literally at the end of my rope. I had clipped the bolts between me and
+my second, and I knew there was another pair of anchors just up ahead. I felt confident
+so I decided to start simul-climbing, and I yelled down to my partner, "START CLIMBING!"
+A 60-meter rope is almost 200-ft long, and in the vastness, sounds get blown away, so I
+just started yanking on the rope forcing him to follow me upward. This worked for a few
+feet but then I was yanked to a stop. I could see the next pair of anchors, but they were
+just out of reach. I turned around to start screaming frantic, feeling the buzz
+of adrenalin shoot into my veins, when I saw my partner take off his backpack. I was
+completely confused. Dread crept into my bones as I saw something flutter off into
+the breeze, but I was quickly filled with relief as my partner slung his backpack
+and lept upward. I flew to the anchors, clipped them like a baby hugging his mother
+and hauled up my parter. "What the heck was that?" I asked as he got closer, and he
+explained that he had climbed to the end of that black piece of webbing, but it was
+too tight, and he couldn't reach down to unclip the locking carabiner I'd lent him,
+so he cut the sling and left the biner. It was a small price I was happy to pay.
+
+![Snake Dike Scramble](images/P2010037.JPG)
+
+Mini epic almost over, the rest of the climb was uneventful. We reached the third class
+scramble while there were still patches of blue in the cloudy skies, but once on the
+summit, while taking victory photos and scarfing food, it started snowing and we
+knew we had to sprint down the cables. 
+
+![Snake Dike Snow](images/P2010039.jpg)
+
+We reached the bottom and started planning our celebration with cocktails at the
+Mountain Bar at the Lodge. There we reflected on the choices we made during the
+day as the conditions changed, and we reassessed our risk. Our planning didn't
+consider the surprise mini-epic, but a little skill and a lot of luck kept us
+safe. I don't think either of us were particularly risky, even before we had kids.
+Sure, there's a spectrum, and each person has to make a conscious choice of the
+risks they're willing to take, but to do that effectively requires understanding
+and evaluating the risk especially as conditions change. 
+
+![Snake Dike Me on the Diving Board](images/P2010041.JPG)
+
+Here's me 20 years ago, after that Snake Hike, on the infamous diving board,
+overlooking the valley. I reflect back on my climbing experiences, and I realize
+that of the many valuable lessons I learned in the mountains, assessing risk
+has been one of the most useful. Understanding uncertainty has helped me navigate
+an often uncertain world, and to realize that as conditions change, I can re-evaluate
+my risk and make different choices. You can too. Thanks for reading!
+
+If you like this Climbing Life Lesson, check out this one on
+[Offwidths]({filename}Climbing-life-lessons-offwidth.md) or why it's better to stick
+with the plan rather than making last minute changes.
+
+## My Notes:
+
+- Any event has a distribution of possible outcomes, some that are more favorable than others and some that are definitely undesirable.
+- The distribution might not be random, in other words some outcomes might be more likely than others.
+- Risk assessment is a measure of the possibility of favorable and undesirable outcomes.
+- Each person's or party's tolerance for risk is a choice that depends on trade offs between the chances of favorable vs. undesired outcomes.
+- changing conditions force you to reavaluate the risk and make new choices.
+- Sometimes conditions and risk can change quickly, leaving you exposed to greater risk.
+- Exposure in theoretical terms is a measure of the level risk you've accepted but in practical terms it's measured in how far or long it will take to escape danger and get to help.
+- climbing in the mountains automatically increases your exposure because it can be difficult to escape the rock safely.
+- climbing in the backcountry can increase exposure significantly because in addition to a safe retreat you may also need to hike and drive significant distances before you can get help.
+- Dangers in the mountains include route finding, getting caught in bad weather, darkness, lightning strikes, equipment failure, missing or losing equipment, falls, injuries, death
+- learning to evaluate risk in changing conditions is an important skill that can have practical advantages in all aspects of your life.
+- it can help you tolerate uncertainty, because reality is both full of possiblities and uncertainty
+- it can help you rule out unlikely or scenarios with no serious consequences