minor fixes

Author: EugeneSim

README.md

@@ -152,16 +152,18 @@ The tab returns:
 - human-readable segment benchmark tables with plain-language guidance (`lower error is better`, `higher sample size is better`).
 - location/connectivity premium context (planning area, region tier, MRT proxy, and CBD access heuristic).
 - optional scenario overlay controls for school-zone, shopping-hub, and fast-CBD-access premium assumptions.
-- new **Housing economics details** tab for end-to-end ownership estimation:
+- new **HDB calculator** tab for end-to-end ownership estimation:
   - MOP timeline and estimated sale timing checks
-  - grants checklist, estimated return-to-government, and levy
+  - tiered EHG + Family/Singles/PHG grant assumptions
+  - estimated return-to-government, levy, and policy-tier subsidy recovery
   - HDB/bank loan cashflow schedule with CPF vs cash split
-  - COV/premium, renovation, taxes/fees, and itemized cost ledger
+  - BSD/ABSD auto defaults, fixed-fee assumptions, and itemized cost ledger
   - profit waterfall and breakdown tables
   - bank package modelling for common `2-year fixed -> SORA + spread` path
   - repricing/refinancing simulation with admin/legal/valuation/clawback and lock-in penalty impacts
+  - integrated debt-free vs rental-subsidy progress chart
 
-### Housing economics details (estimator)
+### HDB calculator (estimator)
 
 The app now includes an estimator-focused page for BTO/resale/EC/private planning using policy defaults in:
 

configs/housing_finance_v1.yaml

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 metadata:
-  effective_date: "2026-01-01"
+  effective_date: "2026-04-28"
   updated_on: "2026-04-28"
   disclaimer: "Estimator only. Verify policy and legal details with official sources."
 
@@ -15,19 +15,37 @@ grant_defaults:
   grant_return_rate_pct: 100.0
   sg_sg:
     - name: "EHG"
-      amount: 80000
+      amount: 120000
       selected: false
     - name: "Family Grant"
-      amount: 50000
+      amount: 80000
+      selected: false
+    - name: "Proximity Housing Grant"
+      amount: 20000
       selected: false
   sg_pr:
+    - name: "EHG"
+      amount: 120000
+      selected: false
     - name: "Family Grant (Citizen-PR)"
-      amount: 40000
+      amount: 70000
+      selected: false
+    - name: "Proximity Housing Grant"
+      amount: 20000
+      selected: false
+  pr_pr:
+    - name: "EHG"
+      amount: 120000
       selected: false
-  pr_pr: []
   single_citizen:
+    - name: "EHG (Singles)"
+      amount: 60000
+      selected: false
     - name: "Singles Grant"
-      amount: 25000
+      amount: 40000
+      selected: false
+    - name: "Proximity Housing Grant (Singles)"
+      amount: 10000
       selected: false
   other: []
 
@@ -40,7 +58,7 @@ resale_levy_defaults:
 fee_defaults:
   legal_fees_default: 2500
   valuation_fees_default: 500
-  buyer_stamp_duty_default_rate_pct: 2.5
+  buyer_stamp_duty_default_rate_pct: 3.0
   additional_buyer_stamp_duty_default_rate_pct: 0
   agent_sale_fee_default_rate_pct: 0.02
   maintenance_monthly_default: 120

docs/housing_details_v1_runbook.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 
 ## Purpose
 
-`Housing economics details` is an estimator-first Streamlit tab for BTO, resale, EC, and private scenarios.  
+`HDB calculator` is an estimator-first Streamlit tab for BTO, resale, EC, and private scenarios.  
 It computes affordability and exit economics using transparent assumptions and formula outputs.
 
 ## What It Covers
@@ -11,9 +11,10 @@ It computes affordability and exit economics using transparent assumptions and f
   - MOP countdown
   - earliest legal sale timing from purchase
 - Grants and return-to-government:
-  - grant checkbox selection
+  - EHG income-tier estimation
+  - Family / Singles / Proximity / Citizen Top-Up toggles
   - estimated grant return and levy
-  - additional manual government return fields
+  - subsidy recovery assumptions for Standard/Plus/Prime policy tiers
 - Loan and instalments:
   - HDB fixed track or bank tracks
   - monthly schedule with interest, principal, CPF used, cash used
@@ -47,7 +48,7 @@ This file stores:
 - bank default path for common market structure: `24-month fixed -> SORA + spread`
 - grant defaults by household profile
 - levy defaults by housing type
-- fee defaults (BSD/ABSD baseline rates, legal/valuation, maintenance)
+- fee defaults (legal/valuation, maintenance; BSD and ABSD are auto-computed in app)
 
 ## Formula Reference
 
@@ -99,7 +100,7 @@ streamlit run streamlit_app.py
 ```
 
 3. In app:
-   - open `Housing economics details`
+   - open `HDB calculator`
    - run at least three scenarios:
      - SG+SG BTO
      - SG+PR resale
@@ -114,6 +115,7 @@ streamlit run streamlit_app.py
 
 - Estimator only, not legal/financial advice.
 - Defaults may drift when policy changes; verify with official Singapore sources.
+- Plus/Prime subsidy recovery rates can vary by launch/project; adjust defaults to your case.
 - Grant return and levy are modeled assumptions unless exact case rules are provided.
 - Profit output is scenario-dependent and sensitive to sale-price assumption.
 - Bank packages vary by institution and repricing date; treat 2-year fixed then SORA as a practical default, not a guarantee.

reports/forecaster_v1/near_term_eval.json

@@ -1,191 +1,191 @@
 {
-  "created_at_utc": "2026-04-28T03:01:41.502719+00:00",
+  "created_at_utc": "2026-04-28T08:28:43.574563+00:00",
   "rolling_origin": {
     "windows": [
       {
         "window": 1,
         "train_end": "2026-01-01",
         "test_end": "2026-04-01",
         "rows": 5212,
-        "rmse": 208574.04050389552,
-        "mae": 176651.0337962874,
-        "interval_coverage_p10_p90": 0.1379508825786646,
-        "mean_interval_width": 97319.55
+        "rmse": 206598.59169305864,
+        "mae": 165988.39654659905,
+        "interval_coverage_p10_p90": 0.2173829623944743,
+        "mean_interval_width": 96066.74415592414
       }
     ],
-    "mean_rmse": 208574.04050389552,
-    "mean_mae": 176651.0337962874,
-    "overall_interval_coverage_p10_p90": 0.1379508825786646,
-    "mean_interval_width": 97319.55,
+    "mean_rmse": 206598.59169305864,
+    "mean_mae": 165988.39654659905,
+    "overall_interval_coverage_p10_p90": 0.2173829623944743,
+    "mean_interval_width": 96066.74415592414,
     "segment_coverage_by_town": [
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "ANG MO KIO",
         "rows": 206,
-        "coverage": 0.18446601941747573
+        "coverage": 0.32038834951456313
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "BEDOK",
         "rows": 261,
-        "coverage": 0.07662835249042145
+        "coverage": 0.24904214559386972
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "BISHAN",
         "rows": 84,
-        "coverage": 0.5833333333333334
+        "coverage": 0.5714285714285714
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "BUKIT BATOK",
         "rows": 316,
-        "coverage": 0.0949367088607595
+        "coverage": 0.21518987341772153
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "BUKIT MERAH",
         "rows": 213,
-        "coverage": 0.3051643192488263
+        "coverage": 0.39906103286384975
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "BUKIT PANJANG",
         "rows": 179,
-        "coverage": 0.01675977653631285
+        "coverage": 0.00558659217877095
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "BUKIT TIMAH",
         "rows": 12,
-        "coverage": 0.16666666666666666
+        "coverage": 0.5833333333333334
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "CENTRAL AREA",
         "rows": 36,
-        "coverage": 0.4722222222222222
+        "coverage": 0.5277777777777778
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "CHOA CHU KANG",
         "rows": 219,
-        "coverage": 0.0136986301369863
+        "coverage": 0.0045662100456621
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "CLEMENTI",
         "rows": 100,
-        "coverage": 0.37
+        "coverage": 0.5
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "GEYLANG",
         "rows": 141,
-        "coverage": 0.5106382978723404
+        "coverage": 0.6382978723404256
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       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "HOUGANG",
         "rows": 249,
-        "coverage": 0.08835341365461848
+        "coverage": 0.10843373493975904
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       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "JURONG EAST",
         "rows": 105,
-        "coverage": 0.09523809523809523
+        "coverage": 0.17142857142857143
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "JURONG WEST",
         "rows": 331,
-        "coverage": 0.03927492447129909
+        "coverage": 0.06948640483383686
       },
       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "KALLANG/WHAMPOA",
         "rows": 136,
-        "coverage": 0.4485294117647059
+        "coverage": 0.47058823529411764
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       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "MARINE PARADE",
         "rows": 22,
-        "coverage": 0.6818181818181818
+        "coverage": 0.5454545454545454
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         "window": 1,
         "town": "PASIR RIS",
         "rows": 151,
-        "coverage": 0.019867549668874173
+        "coverage": 0.026490066225165563
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         "window": 1,
         "town": "PUNGGOL",
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-        "coverage": 0.08333333333333333
+        "coverage": 0.06845238095238096
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         "window": 1,
         "town": "QUEENSTOWN",
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-        "coverage": 0.2893081761006289
+        "coverage": 0.37735849056603776
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         "window": 1,
         "town": "SEMBAWANG",
         "rows": 189,
-        "coverage": 0.10052910052910052
+        "coverage": 0.13756613756613756
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         "window": 1,
         "town": "SENGKANG",
         "rows": 340,
-        "coverage": 0.029411764705882353
+        "coverage": 0.12058823529411765
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         "window": 1,
         "town": "SERANGOON",
         "rows": 69,
-        "coverage": 0.2753623188405797
+        "coverage": 0.2463768115942029
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       {
         "window": 1,
         "town": "TAMPINES",
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         "town": "TOA PAYOH",
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         "town": "WOODLANDS",
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         "town": "YISHUN",
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   "ablation": {
     "without_location_features": {
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+      "rmse": 94168.70804401723,
+      "mape": 0.09269712100031163
     },
     "with_location_features": {
-      "mae": 33941.34214121259,
-      "rmse": 48376.61395864323,
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   "promotion_gate": {

reports/forecaster_v1/near_term_eval.md

@@ -1,15 +1,15 @@
 # Near-term Evaluation Report
 
-- Generated: `2026-04-28T03:01:41.502719+00:00`
+- Generated: `2026-04-28T08:28:43.574563+00:00`
 - Rolling windows evaluated: `1`
-- Mean rolling RMSE: `208574.04`
-- Mean rolling MAE: `176651.03`
-- Interval coverage (p10-p90): `0.138`
-- Mean interval width: `97319.55`
+- Mean rolling RMSE: `206598.59`
+- Mean rolling MAE: `165988.40`
+- Interval coverage (p10-p90): `0.217`
+- Mean interval width: `96066.74`
 
 ## Exogenous/Location Ablation (test split)
-- Without location features RMSE: `49404.03`
-- With location features RMSE: `48376.61`
+- Without location features RMSE: `94168.71`
+- With location features RMSE: `66123.28`
 
 Artifacts:
 - JSON: `reports/forecaster_v1/near_term_eval.json`