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IMF Indicator ↔ Swedish Policy / Committee Mapping

Authoritative committee → IMF indicator map. Referenced by scripts/imf-context.ts, the Step 2.6 prompt of every .github/workflows/news-*.md workflow, and the per-committee analysis templates.

Companion docs: README.md · indicators-inventory.json (machine-readable) · data-dictionary.md · agentic-integration.md · use-cases.md · worldbank/indicator-policy-mapping.md (non-economic residue).

1 · Committee → IMF indicator matrix

Format key: DATABASE:CODE (e.g. WEO:NGDP_RPCH, FM:GGXONLB_NGDP, GFS_COFOG:GF02_T). [projection] flags indicators that publish T+5 projections.

Committee Remit IMF role Primary indicators Secondary / supporting
FiU Finance — macro & budget IMF primary WEO:NGDP_RPCH [proj] (growth) · WEO:PCPIPCH [proj] (inflation) · WEO:NGDPDPC [proj] (GDP per capita) · WEO:GGXWDG_NGDP [proj] (debt/GDP) · WEO:GGXCNL_NGDP [proj] (fiscal balance) · WEO:GGX_NGDP [proj] (expenditure) · FM:GGXONLB_NGDP [proj] (primary balance) WEO:PPPPC [proj] (GDP per capita PPP) · CPI:_T.IX (monthly CPI) · ER:USD_XDC.PA_RT (SEK/USD)
SkU Taxation IMF primary WEO:GGR_NGDP [proj] (revenue/GDP) · FM:GGXONLB_NGDP [proj] (primary balance) · FM:GGSB_NPGDP [proj] (cyclically-adjusted) · WEO:GGXWDG_NGDP [proj] (debt context) WEO:GGX_NGDP [proj]
AU Labour market IMF + SCB WEO:LUR [proj] (unemployment rate) · WEO:LE [proj] (employment) SCB AKU (preferred for Swedish-specific) · WEO:NGDPDPC [proj]
NU Business & trade IMF primary WEO:BCA_NGDPD [proj] (current account) · WEO:TX_RPCH [proj] (exports growth) · WEO:TM_RPCH [proj] (imports growth) · IMTS:XG_FOB_USD (bilateral exports) · IMTS:MG_CIF_USD (bilateral imports) PCPS:POILAPSP (oil — export competitiveness)
UU Foreign affairs IMF primary WEO:BCA_NGDPD [proj] · WEO:TX_RPCH [proj] · IMTS:XG_FOB_USD (partner-country exports) · IMTS:MG_CIF_USD (partner-country imports) —
SoU Health & welfare IMF + WB GFS_COFOG:GF07_T (health spending / GDP) · WEO:LP [proj] (population) · WEO:NGDPDPC [proj] (per-capita context) WB SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS, SH.MED.BEDS.ZS
SfU Social insurance IMF + WB GFS_COFOG:GF10_T (social protection) · WEO:LP [proj] · WEO:LUR [proj] WB social-residue indicators
FöU Defence IMF + WB GFS_COFOG:GF02_T (defence spending / GDP) WB MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS (historical) · MS.MIL.XPND.CD
MJU Environment WB primary (IMF overlay) PCPS:POILAPSP (oil — energy transition) · PCPS:PALLFNF (commodity index) WB EN.ATM.CO2E.PC, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, AG.LND.FRST.ZS
UbU Education IMF + WB GFS_COFOG:GF09_T (education spending / GDP) WB SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS, SE.PRM.ENRR, SE.TER.ENRR
KU Constitution / institutions WB only (WGI) — WB CC.EST, RL.EST, VA.EST, GE.EST, RQ.EST, PV.EST (all source=75)
JuU Justice / rule of law WB only — WB VC.IHR.PSRC.P5, IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ, WGI
KrU Culture — — WB SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS (sector-specific), SM.POP.TOTL
TU Transport IMF + WB WEO:NGDP_RPCH [proj] (growth context) WB IS.ROD.TOTL.KM, IS.RRS.TOTL.KM
CU Civil affairs / housing IMF + WB GFS_COFOG:GF10_T WB housing indicators

Convention: When IMF and SCB both cover a Swedish indicator (typically unemployment, inflation), IMF is primary for cross-country comparison, SCB is primary for Swedish-specific ground truth. Article commentary may cite both with the methodology difference annotated — see data-dictionary.md § 5.5.

2 · Projection horizons

Indicator Historical back to Projection to (WEO Apr-2026 vintage) Released
WEO:NGDP_RPCH 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:NGDPD 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:NGDPDPC 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:PCPIPCH 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:PCPIEPCH 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:LUR 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:LE 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:LP 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:GGXWDG_NGDP 1995 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:GGR_NGDP 1995 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:GGX_NGDP 1995 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:GGXCNL_NGDP 1995 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:BCA_NGDPD 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
WEO:TX_RPCH / TM_RPCH 1980 2031 Apr/Oct
FM:GGXONLB_NGDP 2000 2031 Apr/Oct
FM:GGSB_NPGDP 2000 2031 Apr/Oct
CPI:_T.IX 1950s — (historical only) Monthly
MFS_IR:MMRT_RT_PT_A_PT 1993 — Monthly
GFS_COFOG:GF02_T/07/09/10 1995 — (T+1 annual) Annual
IMTS:XG_FOB_USD 1980 — Monthly
PCPS:POILAPSP 1980 — Monthly

3 · How to cite (audit-grade)

Projection (WEO/FM only — must include vintage tag):

"IMF projects Sweden's general government gross debt at 32.4 % of GDP in 2027 (WEO Apr-2026, GGXWDG_NGDP)."

Historical (WEO/FM — vintage recommended for extraordinary values, optional otherwise):

"Sweden's debt/GDP peaked at 38 % in 2022 (WEO:GGXWDG_NGDP)."

High-frequency (IFS, MFS_IR, DOTS, PCPS, ER):

"Sweden's HICP reached 109.4 (2010=100) in March 2026 (CPI:_T.IX, monthly)."

"Brent crude averaged USD 82/bbl in March 2026 (PCPS:POILAPSP)."

Bilateral trade (DOTS):

"Swedish goods exports to Russia collapsed 92 % between 2021-Q4 and 2023-Q4 (IMTS:XG_FOB_USD)."

Never use un-attributed forecast phrasing:

  • ❌ "Sweden will grow at 2 % in 2027"
  • ❌ "The economy is expected to reach 2 %"
  • ✅ "IMF projects Sweden's real GDP growth at 2.3 % in 2027 (WEO Apr-2026, NGDP_RPCH)"

See banned-phrasings list in .github/aw/ECONOMIC_DATA_CONTRACT.md § 6.

4 · Disambiguation — WEO vs FM for same code

The code GGXWDG_NGDP exists in both WEO and FM, and can differ by up to ~1 pp in the same year due to different cutoff dates and revision policies. Rule:

  • Headline macro article → cite WEO: (WEO Apr-2026, GGXWDG_NGDP)
  • Debt-sustainability / cyclically-adjusted analysis → cite FM: (FM Apr-2026, GGXWDG_NGDP) or use FM-exclusive codes like GGXONLB_NGDP, GGSB_NPGDP.

When both are cited in the same article, always qualify with the database prefix so the audit can reconcile.

5 · Cross-provider coverage — committees with NO IMF primary

  • KU (constitution / institutions) — IMF has no governance indicator. WB WGI (CC.EST, RL.EST, VA.EST, GE.EST, RQ.EST, PV.EST, all source=75) is authoritative. Commentary is historical only (WGI publishes no projections).
  • JuU (justice / rule of law) — Same as KU. Plus VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 for homicide rates.
  • KrU (culture) — IMF does not decompose culture spending. WB sector data or SCB for Swedish cultural budget execution.
  • MJU (environment) — WB primary for emissions, renewables, forests. IMF PCPS overlay for commodity-price context in energy-policy articles.

Articles touching these committees will have source.imf: [] in their economic-data.json. This is valid and expected — the validator does not require a non-empty IMF source, only that IMF is consulted first whenever the article class is one IMF covers (macro/fiscal/monetary/external).

6 · Machine-readable lookup

# Human: browse the authoritative committee matrix
cat analysis/imf/indicators-inventory.json | jq '.committeeMatrix'

# Agent: programmatic lookup in TypeScript
import { findImfIndicatorsForCommittee, findImfIndicatorsForDomains } from '../../scripts/imf-context.js';
const forFiU = findImfIndicatorsForCommittee('FiU');
const forDomain = findImfIndicatorsForDomains(['fiscal policy', 'debt']);

7 · Related