Merge pull request #1997 from Hack23/news/month-ahead-2026-04-25-fb2f43a3d5b251b2

feat(news): Month-Ahead Analysis — Sweden, May 2026: Pre-Election Inflection Point

Author: pethers

analysis/daily/2026-04-25/month-ahead/README.md

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+# Month-Ahead Analysis: Sweden, May 2026
+
+**Date produced**: 2026-04-25 | **Author**: James Pether Sörling | **Classification**: PUBLIC
+
+A Tier-C political intelligence analysis of the Swedish legislative sprint and the five-month countdown to the September 2026 general election. This analysis covers 19 government propositions tabled in April 2026 and their political, economic, and strategic significance.
+
+## Artifact Index
+
+### Family A — Core Synthesis
+| File | Description |
+|---|---|
+| [executive-brief.md](executive-brief.md) | BLUF, 3 Key Decisions, 60-second read |
+| [synthesis-summary.md](synthesis-summary.md) | Integrated picture, DIW-ranked themes |
+| [significance-scoring.md](significance-scoring.md) | DIW scoring table for all 19 documents |
+| [classification-results.md](classification-results.md) | 7-dimension classification results |
+| [swot-analysis.md](swot-analysis.md) | SWOT with evidence citations per quadrant |
+| [risk-assessment.md](risk-assessment.md) | 10-risk register with L×I scores |
+| [threat-analysis.md](threat-analysis.md) | 4 threat categories, attack trees |
+| [stakeholder-perspectives.md](stakeholder-perspectives.md) | 6-lens stakeholder matrix |
+| [scenario-analysis.md](scenario-analysis.md) | 4 scenarios, probabilities summing 100% |
+
+### Family B — Structural Metadata
+| File | Description |
+|---|---|
+| [data-download-manifest.md](data-download-manifest.md) | 20 documents fetched; MCP health log |
+| [cross-reference-map.md](cross-reference-map.md) | Tier-C sibling links; policy clusters |
+
+### Family C — Strategic Extensions
+| File | Description |
+|---|---|
+| [scenario-analysis.md](scenario-analysis.md) | (also Family A; canonical) |
+| [comparative-international.md](comparative-international.md) | Nordic+EU outside-in analysis |
+| [devils-advocate.md](devils-advocate.md) | ACH matrix; H1/H2/H3 competing hypotheses |
+| [intelligence-assessment.md](intelligence-assessment.md) | 5 Key Judgments; PIR handoff |
+| [methodology-reflection.md](methodology-reflection.md) | ICD 203 audit; 13 SAT techniques |
+
+### Family D — Electoral & Domain Lenses
+| File | Description |
+|---|---|
+| [election-2026-analysis.md](election-2026-analysis.md) | Seat projections; coalition formation scenarios |
+| [voter-segmentation.md](voter-segmentation.md) | 7 key voter segments |
+| [coalition-mathematics.md](coalition-mathematics.md) | Seat map; Ja/Nej/Avstår voting table |
+| [historical-parallels.md](historical-parallels.md) | Reinfeldt 2010 (78/100), Persson 2006 comparison |
+| [media-framing-analysis.md](media-framing-analysis.md) | Per-party + press framing |
+| [implementation-feasibility.md](implementation-feasibility.md) | Delivery risk for 5 key reforms |
+| [forward-indicators.md](forward-indicators.md) | 20 indicators across 4 horizons |
+
+### Family E — Per-Document Analysis
+| File | Coverage |
+|---|---|
+| [documents/HD03100-analysis.md](documents/HD03100-analysis.md) | Vårproposition 2026 (L3) |
+| [documents/HD03236-analysis.md](documents/HD03236-analysis.md) | Emergency fuel/energy relief (L3) |
+| [documents/HD03240-analysis.md](documents/HD03240-analysis.md) | Electricity System Laws (L2+) |
+| [documents/HD03246-analysis.md](documents/HD03246-analysis.md) | Juvenile Justice Reform (L2+) |
+| [documents/HD03237-analysis.md](documents/HD03237-analysis.md) | Paid Police Education (L2+) |
+| [documents/HD03238-analysis.md](documents/HD03238-analysis.md) | Environmental Review Authority (L2+) |
+| [documents/HD03231-analysis.md](documents/HD03231-analysis.md) | Ukraine Tribunal Accession (L2) |
+| [documents/HD03239-analysis.md](documents/HD03239-analysis.md) | Wind Revenue Sharing (L2) |
+| [documents/cluster-remaining-analysis.md](documents/cluster-remaining-analysis.md) | Remaining 12 documents clustered |
+
+## Key Findings Summary
+
+1. **HD03100 (Vårpropositionen)** is the anchor document — the spring budget defines the government's economic recovery narrative 5 months before the election
+2. **HD03236 (emergency relief)** is the SD-facing concession in the coalition, passed via an extra ändringsbudget
+3. **Energy trinity** (HD03238+HD03239+HD03240) forms a strategic infrastructure reform package with broad cross-party support
+4. **Security triple** (HD03237+HD03246+HD03252) targets the election's primary battleground issue
+5. **Coalition margin** is 1 seat (176/349) — single-seat-majority legislative risk on 4 of 8 key votes
+
+## Sibling Analysis
+- [Monthly Review 2026-04-25](../monthly-review/README.md) — companion analysis covering April 2026 review period