Merge pull request #2042 from Hack23/copilot/add-scb-riksbank-integration

[WIP] Add SCB and Riksbank quantitative integration for economic analysis

Author: pethers

.github/skills/data-science-for-intelligence/SKILL.md

@@ -25,11 +25,13 @@ Apply this skill when:
 - ✅ Constructing influence networks from voting alignment patterns
 - ✅ Forecasting trends in party support or politician effectiveness
 - ✅ Clustering politicians or parties by voting similarity
+- ✅ Modelling Swedish economic transmission chains using IMF macro context plus SCB KPI/AKU/HEK/fuel-price series and Riksbank policy-rate/minutes signals
 
 Do NOT use for:
 - ❌ Simple aggregation queries (use SQL views instead)
 - ❌ Real-time operational dashboards (use materialized views)
 - ❌ Causal inference without proper experimental design or quasi-experimental methods
+- ❌ Replacing IMF cross-country macro/fiscal indicators with SCB or Riksbank series; use SCB/Riksbank only as Swedish ground-truth complements
 
 ## Data Science Framework for CIA Platform
 

.github/skills/riksdag-regering-mcp/SKILL.md

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ Provide comprehensive access to Swedish political data through the `riksdag-rege
 4. **Real-Time Access**: Latest parliamentary and government activities
 5. **GDPR Compliance**: Public interest basis (Article 6(1)(e)), no personal data beyond official capacity
 6. **Multi-Source Integration**: Riksdag documents + Government publications
+7. **Quantitative Context Handoff**: Pair parliamentary evidence with SCB/Riksbank helper outputs when domestic economic transmission matters; keep IMF as cross-country macro canon and SCB/Riksbank as Swedish ground truth.
 
 ## Available Tools (32 Total)
 
@@ -112,6 +113,7 @@ Provide comprehensive access to Swedish political data through the `riksdag-rege
 - **Electoral Research**: Historical trends, party evolution
 - **Transparency Dashboards**: Real-time political metrics
 - **Risk Assessment**: Identify democratic accountability gaps
+- **Economic Transmission Analysis**: Combine Riksdag measures with `scripts/scb-fetch.ts` KPI/AKU/HEK/fuel presets and `scripts/riksbank-fetch.ts` policy-rate/minutes context for Swedish-specific impact estimates.
 
 ## Calling MCP Tools in Agentic Workflows
 

analysis/templates/comparative-international.md

@@ -159,6 +159,21 @@ graph TB
 
 ---
 
+## 🇸🇪 Swedish Ground-Truth Transmission Layer (SCB + Riksbank)
+
+> Use this table whenever the Swedish measure depends on domestic price, labour-market, household-income or monetary-policy transmission. IMF remains primary for cross-country macro; SCB and Riksbank supply the Swedish-specific ground truth. Fetch with `tsx scripts/scb-fetch.ts preset --preset <cpi|aku|household-economy|fuel-prices> --persist` and `tsx scripts/riksbank-fetch.ts <repo-rate-path|minutes|fuel-price-context> --persist`.
+
+| Transmission step | Swedish source | Required provenance | Current value | Timing / lag | Analytical use |
+|-------------------|----------------|---------------------|:-------------:|--------------|----------------|
+| Pump price / energy component → CPI | SCB `fuel-prices` (`PR0101A`) + SCB `cpi` (`0000003N`) | `economicProvenance.provider="scb"` | — | Monthly | Estimate direct CPI and disposable-income effect |
+| Labour-market slack | SCB `aku` (`000003V8`) | `economicProvenance.provider="scb"` | — | Quarterly | Judge whether Swedish unemployment divergence is structural or cyclical |
+| Household disposable-income exposure | SCB `household-economy` (`HE0110A`) | `economicProvenance.provider="scb"` | — | Annual / latest | Distributional incidence and voter-segment exposure |
+| Monetary-policy pass-through | Riksbank `repo-rate-path` + `minutes` | `economicProvenance.provider="riksbank"` | — | Per monetary-policy decision | Check whether fiscal relief conflicts with the Riksbank inflation path |
+
+> **Interpretation:** State the Swedish mechanism explicitly: instrument → SCB/Riksbank metric → household / labour / sentiment channel → expected political salience. Never relabel SCB or Riksbank data as IMF; use IMF only for cross-country macro/fiscal comparators.
+
+---
+
 ## 📘 Policy-Transfer Assessment
 
 | Question | Answer | Evidence |
@@ -216,4 +231,3 @@ graph TB
 - [ ] **Cross-references resolve** — every `[link](file.md)` in this artifact points to a file that exists in the run folder (`analysis/daily/$ARTICLE_DATE/$SUBFOLDER/`) or to a methodology / template under `analysis/`.
 - [ ] **Mermaid renders** — every fenced ` ```mermaid ` block parses (no missing class definitions, no orphan nodes, no >40-node graphs that overflow viewport on mobile).
 - [ ] **Line-floor check** — artifact length ≥ the per-artifact floor in [`reference-quality-thresholds.json`](../methodologies/reference-quality-thresholds.json); shorter artifacts trigger Pass-2 rewrite, never a `[truncated]` note.
-

analysis/templates/intelligence-assessment.md

@@ -156,6 +156,21 @@ flowchart TD
 
 ---
 
+## 📊 Quantitative Transmission Check (SCB + Riksbank)
+
+> Complete this block for assessments where economic transmission affects intent, timing or voter impact. It is a Swedish ground-truth layer and complements — but does not replace — IMF macro/fiscal context.
+
+| Mechanism | Required source | economicProvenance provider | Latest signal | Intelligence implication |
+|-----------|-----------------|-----------------------------|:-------------:|--------------------------|
+| Price shock / relief channel | `tsx scripts/scb-fetch.ts preset --preset cpi` + `tsx scripts/scb-fetch.ts preset --preset fuel-prices` | `scb` | — | Does the measure materially affect household cost pressure? |
+| Labour-market sensitivity | `tsx scripts/scb-fetch.ts preset --preset aku` | `scb` | — | Does unemployment amplify or mute the political signal? |
+| Household exposure | `tsx scripts/scb-fetch.ts preset --preset household-economy` | `scb` | — | Which voter segments face the strongest disposable-income effect? |
+| Monetary-policy reaction function | `tsx scripts/riksbank-fetch.ts repo-rate-path` + `tsx scripts/riksbank-fetch.ts minutes` | `riksbank` | — | Does the Riksbank path support or contradict the claimed transmission? |
+
+**Assessment note:** Cite concrete SCB/Riksbank values before making a forecast about disposable income, consumer sentiment or polling impact. If either source is unavailable, label the gap and fall back to cached `analysis/data/scb/` or `analysis/data/riksbank/` artifacts.
+
+---
+
 ## 🚩 Red Flags (elevate scrutiny)
 
 | Signal | Meaning | Recommended action |
@@ -211,4 +226,3 @@ flowchart TD
 - [ ] **Cross-references resolve** — every `[link](file.md)` in this artifact points to a file that exists in the run folder (`analysis/daily/$ARTICLE_DATE/$SUBFOLDER/`) or to a methodology / template under `analysis/`.
 - [ ] **Mermaid renders** — every fenced ` ```mermaid ` block parses (no missing class definitions, no orphan nodes, no >40-node graphs that overflow viewport on mobile).
 - [ ] **Line-floor check** — artifact length ≥ the per-artifact floor in [`reference-quality-thresholds.json`](../methodologies/reference-quality-thresholds.json); shorter artifacts trigger Pass-2 rewrite, never a `[truncated]` note.
-

scripts/parliamentary-data/data-persistence.ts

@@ -84,6 +84,7 @@ export type PersistenceDocumentType =
   | 'imf'
   | 'statskontoret'
   | 'scb'
+  | 'riksbank'
   | string; // extensible for generic MCP servers
 
 /** Sidecar metadata written alongside data files. */
@@ -617,6 +618,55 @@ export function persistSCBData(
   return path.join(dir, filename);
 }
 
+/**
+ * Persist Riksbank public web/JSON artifacts.
+ *
+ * Stored under `analysis/data/riksbank/{kind}.json`. Riksbank data is public
+ * and unauthenticated; provenance sidecars record the source URL/kind and the
+ * TypeScript CLI used to retrieve it.
+ *
+ * @param kind      - Logical artifact kind (e.g. 'repo-rate-path', 'minutes').
+ * @param response  - Raw or normalized Riksbank payload.
+ * @param dataRoot  - Override for the data root directory (for testing).
+ * @returns Absolute path to the persisted data file.
+ */
+export function persistRiksbankData(
+  kind: string,
+  response: unknown,
+  dataRoot: string = DATA_ROOT,
+): string {
+  const dir = path.join(dataRoot, 'riksbank');
+  ensureDir(dir);
+
+  const sanitized = sanitizeDokId(kind);
+  const filename = `${sanitized}.json`;
+  fs.writeFileSync(
+    path.join(dir, filename),
+    JSON.stringify(response, null, 2),
+    'utf8',
+  );
+
+  const candidateUrl = typeof response === 'object' && response !== null && 'url' in response
+    ? (response as { url?: unknown }).url
+    : undefined;
+  const sourceUrl = typeof candidateUrl === 'string' && candidateUrl.length > 0
+    ? candidateUrl
+    : undefined;
+  const metaFilename = `${sanitized}.meta.json`;
+  fs.writeFileSync(
+    path.join(dir, metaFilename),
+    JSON.stringify({
+      fetchedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
+      mcpTool: 'riksbank-ts-client',
+      kind,
+      ...(sourceUrl ? { url: sourceUrl } : {}),
+    }, null, 2),
+    'utf8',
+  );
+
+  return path.join(dir, filename);
+}
+
 /**
  * Return the absolute path to the data repository root.
  * Useful for callers that need to reference persisted files.