[Methodology] SCB & Riksbank quantitative integration (CPI, AKU, fuel-price) for economic transmission analysis

[pethers]

📋 Issue Type

Feature / Methodology Hardening

🎯 Objective

Add SCB (Statistics Sweden) + Riksbank quantitative micro-/macro layers as the Swedish ground-truth complement to the IMF canon, enabling semi-quantitative forecasts (e.g. fuel-price → disposable-income → polling).

📊 Current State (evidence from 2026-04-26 reflections)

• realtime-pulse/methodology-reflection.md Improvement 2: "The Norwegian comparator provides a +3pp polling boost estimate, but we have not quantified the Swedish-specific transmission mechanism (pump price reduction → disposable income → consumer sentiment → voting intention). Incorporate SCB consumer price index data and Riksbank fuel price forecasts to model the expected magnitude and timing of HD01FiU48's economic impact."
• weekly-review/methodology-reflection.md Improvement 3: "Routinely adding SCB AKU vs. Stats Finland vs. StatsDenmark quarterly comparison would contextualise whether Sweden's unemployment trajectory diverges structurally or simply lags the cycle."
• monthly-review/methodology-reflection.md: Riksbank 2026-03-20 minutes already used as substitute → formalise this.

🚀 Desired State

1. New helper scripts/scb-fetch.ts wrapping the existing scb MCP server (PXWeb) for: KPI (CPI), AKU (labour force), HEK (household economy), prices (fuel).
2. New helper scripts/riksbank-fetch.ts for repo-rate path + minutes (web_fetch on riksbank.se PDF/JSON).
3. Standard table snippets in comparative-international.md and intelligence-assessment.md.
4. Per the IMF canon (AGENTS.md cross-agent rule): SCB is Swedish-specific ground truth, never replaces IMF for cross-country macro.

🔧 Implementation Approach

1. Reuse existing SCB MCP — focus on table-id selection (KPI: 0000003N, AKU: 000003V8 etc.).
2. Add domains www.riksbank.se, api.scb.se (already allow-listed) to all relevant workflows.
3. Add economicProvenance block per ECONOMIC_DATA_CONTRACT.md v2.1, with provider: "scb" or "riksbank", never aliased as IMF.

🤖 Recommended Agent

data-pipeline-specialist

✅ Acceptance Criteria

• scripts/scb-fetch.ts + scripts/riksbank-fetch.ts
• Provenance blocks comply with banned-phrase contract test
• Auto-injection into 2 templates
• Vitest coverage incl. SCB-API outage path
• Skill riksdag-regering-mcp and data-science-for-intelligence updated

📚 References

• analysis/daily/2026-04-26/{realtime-pulse,weekly-review,monthly-review}/methodology-reflection.md
• Contract: .github/aw/ECONOMIC_DATA_CONTRACT.md v2.1
• MCP server: scb (PXWeb)
• ISMS: CLASSIFICATION.md