[WIP] Add machine-readable PIR status sidecar for cross-cycle inheritance

.github/prompts/05-analysis-gate.md

@@ -232,6 +232,80 @@ if [ -s "$ANALYSIS_DIR/coalition-mathematics.md" ]; then
     || { echo "❌ coalition-mathematics.md: missing seat-count / vote-breakdown table"; FAIL=1; }
 fi
 
+# Check 9 — PIR status sidecar (`pir-status.json`)
+# A valid pir-status.json must be present after every analysis run so that
+# open PIRs can be automatically rolled forward to the next cycle.
+# Schema: schemas/pir-status.schema.json (v1.0)
+# Roll-forward script: scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts
+PIR_FILE="$ANALYSIS_DIR/pir-status.json"
+if [ ! -s "$PIR_FILE" ]; then
+  echo "❌ pir-status.json missing or empty in $ANALYSIS_DIR — create it per schemas/pir-status.schema.json"
+  FAIL=1
+else
+  # Structural check: required top-level fields
+  for PIR_FIELD in schema_version cycle date subfolder pirs generated_at; do
+    python3 -c "
+import json, sys
+try:
+    d = json.load(open('$PIR_FILE'))
+    sys.exit(0 if '$PIR_FIELD' in d else 1)
+except Exception:
+    sys.exit(1)
+" 2>/dev/null || { echo "❌ pir-status.json: missing required field '$PIR_FIELD'"; FAIL=1; }
+  done
+  # schema_version must be '1.0'
+  python3 -c "
+import json, sys
+try:
+    d = json.load(open('$PIR_FILE'))
+    sys.exit(0 if d.get('schema_version') == '1.0' else 1)
+except Exception:
+    sys.exit(1)
+" 2>/dev/null || { echo "❌ pir-status.json: schema_version must be '1.0'"; FAIL=1; }
+  # pirs must be an array
+  python3 -c "
+import json, sys
+try:
+    d = json.load(open('$PIR_FILE'))
+    sys.exit(0 if isinstance(d.get('pirs'), list) else 1)
+except Exception:
+    sys.exit(1)
+" 2>/dev/null || { echo "❌ pir-status.json: 'pirs' field must be a JSON array"; FAIL=1; }
+  # each PIR (any status) must have valid pir_id, statement, status, confidence;
+  # answered PIRs must carry answer_summary; non-answered PIRs must not.
+  python3 -c "
+import json, sys, re
+try:
+    d = json.load(open('$PIR_FILE'))
+    PIR_ID_RE = re.compile(r'^PIR-[A-Za-z0-9]+(-[A-Za-z0-9]+)*$')
+    VALID_STATUS = {'open','answered','superseded','deferred','cancelled'}
+    VALID_CONF = {'VERY HIGH','HIGH','MEDIUM','LOW','VERY LOW'}
+    bad = 0
+    # Cross-field invariant: subfolder must equal cycle (not enforceable in pure JSON Schema).
+    if d.get('subfolder') != d.get('cycle'):
+        print(f'❌ pir-status.json: subfolder={d.get(\"subfolder\")!r} must equal cycle={d.get(\"cycle\")!r}'); bad = 1
+    for p in d.get('pirs', []):
+        pid = p.get('pir_id')
+        if not isinstance(pid, str) or not PIR_ID_RE.match(pid):
+            print(f'❌ pir-status.json: invalid pir_id format: {pid!r}'); bad = 1
+        for f in ('statement', 'status', 'confidence'):
+            if not p.get(f):
+                print(f'❌ pir-status.json pir={pid!r}: missing required field \"{f}\"'); bad = 1
+        if p.get('status') not in VALID_STATUS:
+            print(f'❌ pir-status.json pir={pid!r}: invalid status {p.get(\"status\")!r}'); bad = 1
+        if p.get('confidence') not in VALID_CONF:
+            print(f'❌ pir-status.json pir={pid!r}: invalid confidence {p.get(\"confidence\")!r}'); bad = 1
+        # Conditional: answer_summary required iff status == 'answered'.
+        if p.get('status') == 'answered' and not p.get('answer_summary'):
+            print(f'❌ pir-status.json pir={pid!r}: status=answered requires non-empty answer_summary'); bad = 1
+        if p.get('status') != 'answered' and 'answer_summary' in p:
+            print(f'❌ pir-status.json pir={pid!r}: status={p.get(\"status\")!r} must not carry answer_summary'); bad = 1
+    sys.exit(bad)
+except Exception as e:
+    print(f'❌ pir-status.json: parse error: {e}'); sys.exit(1)
+" 2>&1 || FAIL=1
+fi
+
 [ "$FAIL" -eq 0 ] || exit 1
 ```
 
@@ -264,7 +338,7 @@ Non-blocking for `standard` / `deep` runs; **blocking for `comprehensive` / Tier
 Inline bash probe — append to the main block after `FAIL=0` bookkeeping completes. Supplementary artifacts have **three independent blocking triggers**, not a single tier-only rule: **aggregation article types** (`weekly-review`, `monthly-review`) require the aggregation artifacts; any run whose **tier** is `comprehensive` (the Tier-C run mode) requires the Tier-C supplementary set; and `cross-run-diff.md` is blocking whenever the workflow has **≥ 2 production runs** of the same article type, including `standard` and `deep` runs. `ARTICLE_TYPE` encodes the workflow family; `ANALYSIS_TIER` (when set) encodes the depth tier (`standard` | `deep` | `comprehensive`); `ANALYSIS_RUN_COUNT` (when set) is the numeric count of runs for the same article-generation cycle (if unset or non-numeric, treated as `1`).
 
 ```bash
-# Check 9 — supplementary artifacts (blocking for aggregation types, any Tier-C run, and S5 when run-count >= 2)
+# Check 10 — supplementary artifacts (blocking for aggregation types, any Tier-C run, and S5 when run-count >= 2)
 IS_AGGREGATION=0
 IS_TIER_C=0
 IS_MULTI_RUN=0

analysis/methodologies/ai-driven-analysis-guide.md

@@ -209,6 +209,7 @@ Read every file you produced in Steps 3–5. For each one, **improve every secti
 - Add one more named actor (MP, minister, official) to every stakeholder and SWOT entry.
 - Add one more dok_id or vote-record citation to every evidence column that has < 2 citations.
 - **Tag every key finding to a PIR/EEI** from the catalog in `political-style-guide.md`.
+- **Write `pir-status.json`** — every cycle must produce `$ANALYSIS_DIR/pir-status.json` conforming to `schemas/pir-status.schema.json` v1.0 (required fields: `schema_version`, `cycle`, `date`, `subfolder`, `pirs`, `generated_at`). Newly extracted PIRs from `intelligence-assessment.md` default to `status: "open"`; rolled-forward PIRs from a prior cycle preserve their existing status (`open` / `answered` / `superseded` / `deferred` / `cancelled`) and may carry a populated `inherits_from` chain. Open PIRs that are carried forward have their confidence degraded one level (HIGH → MEDIUM, etc.) by `scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts`; non-open PIRs are preserved unchanged so the historical lineage is never lost. This file is the machine-readable PIR sidecar used for automated roll-forward and CI gate enforcement (Check 9 in `05-analysis-gate.md`).
 - Add Statskontoret evidence to every implementation-capacity or agency-burden claim where a relevant public report/page exists.
 - Verify every macro/fiscal/monetary/external-sector claim is IMF-first, vintage-tagged when projected, and represented in `economic-data.json` when charted.
 - Re-rank the significance scoring if the rewrite reveals a stronger lead.
@@ -579,6 +580,53 @@ Every security-relevant control in Family A maps to **ISO 27001:2022**, **NIST C
 | [`political-threat-framework.md`](political-threat-framework.md) | Attack trees + kill chain + threat taxonomy |
 | [`political-style-guide.md`](political-style-guide.md) | Writing voice, attribution, evidence density |
 
+### PIR status sidecar — automated roll-forward
+
+Every analysis cycle writes a `pir-status.json` sidecar alongside the 23 required artifacts:
+
+| Item | Detail |
+|------|--------|
+| **Schema** | `schemas/pir-status.schema.json` v1.0 — JSON Schema 2020-12 |
+| **Location** | `analysis/daily/YYYY-MM-DD/{subfolder}/pir-status.json` |
+| **Fields** | `schema_version`, `cycle`, `date`, `subfolder`, `generated_at`, `inherited_from`, `pirs[]` |
+| **PIR entry fields** | `pir_id` (pattern `PIR-*`), `statement`, `status`, `confidence`, `trigger`, `answer_summary`, `inherits_from[]`, `evidence_refs[]`, `horizon`, `admiralty_grade` |
+| **Roll-forward script** | `scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts` — propagates `open` PIRs from the previous cycle to the current cycle, degrading confidence by one level to flag staleness |
+| **CI gate** | Check 9 in `.github/prompts/05-analysis-gate.md` — blocks article generation if `pir-status.json` is absent or structurally invalid |
+
+**How to write `pir-status.json` during analysis (Step 7):**
+
+```json
+{
+  "schema_version": "1.0",
+  "cycle": "month-ahead",
+  "date": "2026-04-27",
+  "subfolder": "month-ahead",
+  "generated_at": "2026-04-27T10:00:00Z",
+  "inherited_from": null,
+  "pirs": [
+    {
+      "pir_id": "PIR-1",
+      "statement": "SD voting discipline on prop. 2025/26:236 (fuel tax)",
+      "trigger": "May 2026 chamber vote on HD01FiU48",
+      "status": "open",
+      "confidence": "HIGH",
+      "evidence_refs": ["HD01FiU48"],
+      "horizon": "2026-05-15",
+      "admiralty_grade": "B2"
+    }
+  ]
+}
+```
+
+**Roll-forward usage (next cycle):**
+
+```bash
+npx tsx scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts \
+  --date 2026-04-28 --cycle month-ahead
+```
+
+---
+
 ### Templates and platform exemplars
 
 | Document | Purpose |
@@ -591,7 +639,8 @@ Every security-relevant control in Family A maps to **ISO 27001:2022**, **NIST C
 
 **Document Control**
 - **Path:** `/analysis/methodologies/ai-driven-analysis-guide.md`
-- **Version:** 6.6 — Phase 2–5 alignment (worked examples + narrative-voice + Pass-2 self-audit)
+- **Version:** 6.7 — PIR status sidecar (`pir-status.json`) integration
+- **Key changes in v6.7:** Added mandatory `pir-status.json` sidecar write step to Pass-2 checklist (Step 7); added PIR status sidecar reference section under Related Documents; added roll-forward usage example (`scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts`) and schema reference (`schemas/pir-status.schema.json`).
 - **Key changes in v6.6:** Step 3 now points at the v1.3 doctype-variant detector (5 extended types: motion-package, fpm, utskottsbetänkande-variants, KU-anmälan, EU-nämnd) and adds Narrative subsection requirement for ≥ L2 per-file artifacts; Step 4 cross-reference-map row links to the 7 atomic edge types in `structural-metadata-methodology.md` v1.3; Step 7 Pass-2 rewrite checklist adds two binding items — Pass-2 Self-Audit Checklist (10 items) and Narrative 6-axis rubric (18/30 floor); DIW section adds worked-example callout to `synthesis-methodology.md` v1.3 (line-by-line scoring + winner/loser rubric) and Sainte-Laguë walkthrough in `electoral-domain-methodology.md` v1.3; Quality Gate Checklist gains rows 11–12.
 - **Key changes in v6.5:** source diversity rule integration (political-style-guide.md v3.1)
 - **Key changes in v6.4:** Updated Step 1 reading list to reference **Source Diversity Rule** in political-style-guide.md v3.1 (multi-source corroboration by claim priority, conflict resolution, worked scenario); added Source Diversity check to Quality Gate Evidence dimension (P0/P1: ≥3 sources required); added source diversity verification to Pass-2 rewrite checklist; added IMF collection tools to referenced Collection Management Matrix.

schemas/pir-status.schema.json

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
+  "$id": "https://riksdagsmonitor.com/schemas/pir-status.schema.json",
+  "title": "PIR Status Sidecar",
+  "description": "Machine-readable Priority Intelligence Requirement (PIR) status sidecar produced by every agentic analysis cycle. Written to `analysis/daily/YYYY-MM-DD/{subfolder}/pir-status.json`. Enables automated PIR roll-forward, cross-cycle gap detection, and CI gate enforcement. Schema v1.0.",
+  "type": "object",
+  "additionalProperties": false,
+  "required": ["schema_version", "cycle", "date", "subfolder", "pirs", "generated_at"],
+  "properties": {
+    "schema_version": {
+      "type": "string",
+      "description": "Schema version — always '1.0' for this release.",
+      "enum": ["1.0"]
+    },
+    "cycle": {
+      "type": "string",
+      "description": "Analysis cycle type slug (matches the subfolder name convention).",
+      "enum": [
+        "committeeReports",
+        "propositions",
+        "motions",
+        "interpellations",
+        "evening-analysis",
+        "realtime-pulse",
+        "week-ahead",
+        "month-ahead",
+        "weekly-review",
+        "monthly-review"
+      ]
+    },
+    "date": {
+      "type": "string",
+      "description": "ISO calendar date of this analysis run (YYYY-MM-DD).",
+      "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$"
+    },
+    "subfolder": {
+      "type": "string",
+      "description": "Relative subfolder path under `analysis/daily/YYYY-MM-DD/` — typically equal to `cycle`. Cross-field equality is not enforced by the schema (it would require a verbose `oneOf` per cycle); the CI analysis gate (Check 10 in `.github/prompts/05-analysis-gate.md`) and the `roll-forward-pirs.ts` writer enforce `subfolder === cycle`.",
+      "minLength": 1
+    },
+    "generated_at": {
+      "type": "string",
+      "description": "ISO-8601 timestamp of when this sidecar was generated (UTC).",
+      "format": "date-time"
+    },
+    "inherited_from": {
+      "type": ["string", "null"],
+      "description": "Source path this file was rolled forward from, e.g. `analysis/daily/2026-04-26/month-ahead/pir-status.json`. Null when this is a freshly authored set (no roll-forward).",
+      "default": null
+    },
+    "pirs": {
+      "type": "array",
+      "description": "Ordered list of PIRs for this cycle. May be empty for short-event cycles that did not define standing PIRs.",
+      "items": { "$ref": "#/$defs/pirEntry" }
+    }
+  },
+  "$defs": {
+    "pirEntry": {
+      "type": "object",
+      "additionalProperties": false,
+      "required": ["pir_id", "statement", "status", "confidence"],
+      "properties": {
+        "pir_id": {
+          "type": "string",
+          "description": "Stable local identifier within this cycle, e.g. 'PIR-1', 'PIR-A', 'PIR-FiU-1'. Must be unique within the `pirs` array.",
+          "pattern": "^PIR-[A-Za-z0-9]+([-][A-Za-z0-9]+)*$"
+        },
+        "statement": {
+          "type": "string",
+          "description": "Human-readable intelligence requirement statement. Must be specific, falsifiable, and actionable.",
+          "minLength": 10
+        },
+        "trigger": {
+          "type": "string",
+          "description": "Observable event or threshold that would answer / close this PIR. Optional but strongly recommended.",
+          "minLength": 5
+        },
+        "status": {
+          "type": "string",
+          "description": "Current disposition of this PIR.",
+          "enum": ["open", "answered", "superseded", "deferred", "cancelled"]
+        },
+        "confidence": {
+          "type": "string",
+          "description": "ODNI-aligned confidence label on the current status assessment.",
+          "enum": ["VERY HIGH", "HIGH", "MEDIUM", "LOW", "VERY LOW"]
+        },
+        "answer_summary": {
+          "type": "string",
+          "description": "Short (≤ 500 chars) summary of the evidence or event that answered this PIR. Populate only when status='answered'.",
+          "minLength": 1,
+          "maxLength": 500
+        },
+        "inherits_from": {
+          "type": "array",
+          "description": "Zero or more `pir_id` references from the previous cycle that this PIR continues or inherits from.",
+          "items": {
+            "type": "string",
+            "pattern": "^PIR-[A-Za-z0-9]+([-][A-Za-z0-9]+)*$"
+          },
+          "default": []
+        },
+        "evidence_refs": {
+          "type": "array",
+          "description": "Riksdag `dok_id` references, primary-source URLs, or named artifacts that provide evidence for the current status assessment. At least one reference is recommended for answered PIRs.",
+          "items": {
+            "type": "string",
+            "minLength": 2
+          },
+          "default": []
+        },
+        "horizon": {
+          "type": "string",
+          "description": "Monitoring horizon for this PIR, expressed as an ISO date (YYYY-MM-DD) or a relative label ('next-session', 'next-week', 'election-day'). Optional.",
+          "minLength": 4
+        },
+        "admiralty_grade": {
+          "type": "string",
+          "description": "Admiralty Code grade of the best available source for the current status (STANAG 2022). Source reliability A–F + information credibility 1–6.",
+          "pattern": "^[A-F][1-6]$"
+        }
+      },
+      "allOf": [
+        {
+          "if": { "properties": { "status": { "const": "answered" } }, "required": ["status"] },
+          "then": { "required": ["answer_summary"] },
+          "else": { "not": { "required": ["answer_summary"] } }
+        }
+      ]
+    }
+  }
+}