agi-risk/21-Existential-Risk-Category-List.html at main · HyperCrowd/agi-risk · GitHub

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   <p>
   TITL:
      <b>Existential Risk Category List</b>
      By Forrest Landry
      Monday, Aug 24, 2015.
   </p>
   <p>
   ABST:
      As listing and defining a scale
      of the relative intensity of
      various kinds of x-risk severity.
   </p>
   <p>
   TEXT:
   </p>
   <p>
      > What are the existential x-risk event categories?
   </p>
   <p>
      - Where estimating that the total level
      of equivalent computational complexity
      needing to model the total process of the planet,
        (inclusive of all life on it, down to cell level)
      is at least 10^19 lines of code, relative to a rock;
        (ie; where having 'rock' as complexity level '1');.
      - That the following four categories
      of existential risk
      are defined.
   </p>
   <p>
         - <b>Category-4 Event</b>:.
            - Temporary reduction to 10^17 complexity.
            - in other words, an event involving overall 100 times
            as much energy and intensity as a 'global catastrophe'.
            - Significant (near total) loss of human life, planet wide.
            - Possibility of recovery to present levels
            of population and civilization
            within 20,000 years.
            - Example event; certain categories of biological warfare.
   </p>
   <p>
         - <b>Category-3 Event</b>:.
            - _Temporary_reduction_ to 10^14 complexity.
            - as a 1000 times more intensity than a category 4 event.
            - Significant (near total) loss of all life on the planet
              (every blade of grass gone, most cockroaches dead, etc).
            - that there is a slight possibility of natural recovery
            to present levels of bio-diversity
            within 20 million years.
            - Example events:.
              - grey goo.
   </p>
   <p>
         - <b>Category-2 Event</b>:.
            - _Permanent_reduction_ to 10^12 complexity or lower
            - as 100X stronger than a category 3 event.
            - as a Total and permanent loss
            of all planetary life
            above (and possibly including at) a single cellular level.
            - No recovery likely,
            though at least possible conceptually,
              (assuming extensive external intervention).
            - Example events:.
              - AGI/APS total takeover.
              - global thermal runaway.
   </p>
   <p>
         - <b>Category-1 Event</b>:.
            - _Terminal_Reduction_ to 10^6 complexity or lower
            - as more than a billion billion times more impacting
            than a global catastrophe.
            - Total and permanent (unrecoverable, absolute) loss
            of all known life; no exceptions.
            - No remediation possible, even in concept.
            - Example event; Dark Fire.
   </p>
   <p>
   :
      > - ?; Where would be all out Geo-thermal nuclear war
      > be in this schema?.
   </p>
   <p>
      A full exchange event would not register in this schema.
      At best, a new, much weaker category
      would need to be created,
      somewhere at or beyond 'cat-7' perhaps.
      Basically, full exchange, though terrible,
      might not even qualify as a global catastrophe,
      insofar as it mostly only affects human life
      (ie; targets cities, rather than fertile bio-regions)
      and the level of overall planetary bio complexity
      is probably not actually that much affected
      (unless, of course, the 'nuclear winter scenario'
      actually turns out to be correct, then it becomes
      possible that we are considering a cat-5 event).
      To put it into context, such an event would have
      mostly become unnoticeable in less than 2000 years.
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