Commit 9942e3a
authored
spec: add heatmap-loss-triangle specification (#4602)
## New Specification: `heatmap-loss-triangle`
Related to #4581
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### specification.md
# heatmap-loss-triangle: Actuarial Loss Development Triangle
## Description
A triangular matrix visualization showing cumulative insurance claim
payments developing over time. Rows represent accident/origin years,
columns represent development periods (e.g., 1-10 years), with the
upper-left triangle displaying actual observed cumulative claims and the
lower-right triangle showing projected/estimated values (IBNR). This
plot is essential for actuarial reserving, enabling analysts to
visualize the chain-ladder method and identify development patterns in
loss data.
## Applications
- Insurance reserving: visualizing cumulative claims development to
estimate IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) reserves using the
chain-ladder method
- Reinsurance pricing: assessing reserve adequacy and treaty pricing by
examining historical loss development patterns
- Financial reporting: preparing loss reserve disclosures and
communicating reserve estimates to stakeholders
## Data
- `accident_year` (integer) - The origin/accident year when claims
occurred (e.g., 2015-2024)
- `development_period` (integer) - The development period in years from
origin (e.g., 1-10)
- `cumulative_amount` (float) - Cumulative claim payments at each
development stage
- `is_projected` (boolean) - Whether the value is actual (observed) or
projected (estimated)
- `development_factor` (float) - Age-to-age development factors between
consecutive periods
- Size: 10 accident years x 10 development periods (triangular: ~55
actual + ~45 projected cells)
- Example: Cumulative paid claims triangle with accident years 2015-2024
and development periods 1-10
## Notes
- The upper-left triangle contains actual/observed values; the
lower-right triangle contains projected values
- Use distinct visual styling (e.g., different background colors or
hatching) to clearly differentiate actual from projected cells
- The diagonal from top-right to bottom-left represents the latest
evaluation date
- Annotate each cell with the cumulative amount value (formatted with
thousands separator)
- Display age-to-age development factors between column headers or as a
separate row below the triangle
- Color intensity should encode the magnitude of cumulative amounts
- Include a clear legend distinguishing actual vs projected regions
- Row labels show accident/origin years; column headers show development
periods
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