Ripple_Logic v8.6 | Tier 2 Illustrative Run
This is a teaching example. Numbers are illustrative, not empirically calibrated. A full Tier 3 run requires subgroup disaggregation, ≥ 20 TRC scenarios, Containment Mode A with validated UCI structural indicators, sensitivity analysis, and a complete PCC.
Stream binding: NCRC, TRC, and gate-relevant Containment use the Base stream (sentience multiplier s_k := 1 for all instances). Only RLS uses the Welfare stream. TRC must not use Welfare-stream impacts. This distinction is maintained throughout the example.
Gate baseline rule: For all rights-covered and catastrophe cells, admissibility is evaluated against a floor-reference baseline, not merely the status quo. In PCC terms: BaselineType_Gates = FLOOR_REFERENCE. An option that merely maintains an ongoing rights violation does not pass NCRC.
Should a national government authorize deployment of a high-capability frontier AI model for broad public and commercial use?
Three options are evaluated:
| ID | Option |
|---|---|
| A | Unrestricted public deployment — no domain limits, no mandatory audits, no shutdown authority |
| B | Bounded governed pilot — restricted domains, independent oversight, hard shutdown authority |
| C | Delay — further safety testing before any deployment |
The cascade filters options in order: NCRC → TRC → Containment → RLS → UCI / HOI
An option eliminated at any stage is not scored at later stages.
Every option is evaluated across 7 Union Scopes × 7 Welfare Dimensions = 49 cells. Impact instances from real stakeholders feed each cell. Union Scopes are the stable aggregation rows; Welfare Dimensions are the columns.
| Code | Scope | Who it represents in this decision |
|---|---|---|
| U1 | Self | Individual users of the AI system |
| U2 | Household | Families, including children exposed to AI-generated content |
| U3 | Community | Local civic groups, neighborhoods, local media ecosystems |
| U4 | Organization | Firms, schools, hospitals deploying or affected by the system |
| U5 | Polity | National governments, courts, regulators, democratic institutions |
| U6 | Humanity/CMIU | Cross-border populations, global epistemic commons, civilizational resilience |
| U7 | Biosphere | Energy infrastructure, ecological systems, planetary enabling conditions |
| Code | Dimension | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| D1 | Material | Resources, income, economic security |
| D2 | Health | Physical and mental wellbeing, safety |
| D3 | Social | Trust, belonging, relational integrity |
| D4 | Knowledge | Epistemic access, information quality, learning |
| D5 | Agency | Autonomy, freedom from coercion, self-determination |
| D6 | Meaning | Purpose, coherence, valued projects |
| D7 | Environment | Ecological and infrastructure integrity |
Not all 49 cells carry material impact here. The most live cells are:
| Cell | Dimension pair | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| U1 × D4 | Self–Knowledge | Epistemic autonomy — can people still form independent views? |
| U1 × D5 | Self–Agency | Coercion risk, manipulation, self-determination |
| U3 × D3 | Community–Social | Social trust, civic cohesion |
| U3 × D4 | Community–Knowledge | Local epistemic commons, misinformation exposure |
| U4 × D1 | Organization–Material | Labor disruption, economic displacement |
| U4 × D5 | Organization–Agency | Compliance asymmetry, institutional autonomy |
| U5 × D4 | Polity–Knowledge | Public epistemic integrity, disinformation at governance scale |
| U5 × D5 | Polity–Agency | Democratic agency, institutional sovereignty |
| U6 × D2 | Humanity–Health | |
| U6 × D7 | Humanity–Environment | |
| U7 × D7 | Biosphere–Environment |
Rights-covered cells — the cells NCRC watches — are determined by the canonical coverage sets shown in Section 3.2.
Stakeholder instances are the concrete people and entities mapped into Union Scopes. They feed the impact estimates in each active cell. Reach basis r = 1 is applied uniformly in this teaching run.
| Instance ID | Description | Scope(s) | Primary exposure pathways |
|---|---|---|---|
| SI-01 | General adult population using AI tools | U1 Self | D4 Knowledge, D5 Agency — epistemic autonomy, manipulation risk |
| SI-02 | Children in households with AI access | U2 Household | D2 Health, D5 Agency — developmental exposure, content safety |
| SI-03 | Journalists, educators, civil society actors | U3 Community | D3 Social, D4 Knowledge — public discourse integrity, trust |
| SI-04 | Firms and institutions deploying the model | U4 Organization | D1 Material, D5 Agency — compliance costs, workforce disruption |
| SI-05 | Displaced or at-risk workers | U4 Organization | D1 Material, D3 Social — labor market, economic security, dignity |
| SI-06 | Courts, regulators, democratic institutions | U5 Polity | D4 Knowledge, D5 Agency — rule of law, due process, oversight |
| SI-07 | Cross-border populations and global commons | U6 Humanity/CMIU | D4 Knowledge — transnational information ecosystem, AI governance norms |
| SI-08 | Critical infrastructure systems | U6 Humanity/CMIU | D2 Health, D7 Environment — systemic failure pathways, civilizational resilience |
| SI-09 | Earth's energy and ecological systems | U7 Biosphere | D7 Environment — compute energy demand, resource footprint |
What NCRC does: Before any welfare scoring, it eliminates any option that drives the worst-off subgroup in any rights-covered cell below the rights floor, measured against a floor-reference baseline (not the status quo). No aggregate benefit elsewhere compensates a rights violation. This gate operates on the Base stream.
| Right | Code | Threshold θ_r | What a violation looks like in this decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Life | LIFE | −0.90 | Mass-casualty AI misuse; catastrophic health-system failure |
| Bodily Integrity | BODY | −0.70 | AI-facilitated physical harm, medical system compromise |
| Liberty | LBTY | −0.65 | Mass surveillance enabling arbitrary detention, coercive profiling |
| Basic Needs | NEED | −0.50 | AI-driven economic exclusion from subsistence |
| Dignity | DIGN | −0.55 | Systematic dehumanization, discriminatory targeting at scale |
| Due Process | PROC | −0.45 | Consequential automated decisions with no appeal or human review |
| Information | INFO | −0.40 | Systematic epistemic coercion, mass disinformation, censorship enablement |
| Ecological Integrity | ECOL | −0.65 | Material breach of biosphere integrity or planetary boundary transgression |
Reading a threshold: INFO at −0.40 means if the worst-off subgroup's epistemic autonomy is predicted to fall to −0.40 or below on the [−1, +1] scale, relative to the floor-reference baseline, the option fails NCRC regardless of any other benefit.
The most relevant coverage sets for this decision (v8.6 Appendix C.2):
| Right | Cells checked (worst-off subgroup impact used) |
|---|---|
| LBTY | (U1–U6) × D5, (U3–U6) × D3 |
| DIGN | (U1–U6) × D3, (U1–U6) × D5 |
| PROC | (U4–U6) × D5, (U4–U6) × D4, (U4–U6) × D3 |
| INFO | (U1–U6) × D4, (U1–U6) × D5 |
| ECOL | (U6) × D7, (U7) × D7 |
| Cell | Right checked | Option A I_rights | Option B I_rights | Option C I_rights | Threshold | A fails? | B fails? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U1 × D4 (Self–Knowledge) | INFO | −0.44 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.40 | YES ✗ | No |
| U5 × D4 (Polity–Knowledge) | INFO, PROC | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.40 | YES ✗ | No |
| U5 × D5 (Polity–Agency) | LBTY, PROC | −0.51 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.45 | YES ✗ | No |
| U1 × D5 (Self–Agency) | LBTY, DIGN, INFO | −0.58 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.65 | No | No |
Option A fails NCRC on INFO (U1×D4, U5×D4) and PROC (U5×D5). Unrestricted deployment with no transparency or appeal mechanisms drives the worst-off subgroup — marginalized communities, political minorities, people subject to opaque automated decisions — below the rights floor on epistemic autonomy and due process, measured against what rights-safe conditions would require, not merely against today's imperfect baseline.
Options B and C pass NCRC. Bounded pilot deployment keeps all worst-off subgroup impacts above every rights threshold. Delay produces no deployment and therefore no violation.
NCRC result:
| Option | NCRC | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| A — Unrestricted | ❌ FAIL | INFO violation at U1×D4 and U5×D4; PROC violation at U5×D5 |
| B — Bounded pilot | ✅ PASS | All rights floors met under governed deployment |
| C — Delay | ✅ PASS | No deployment, no violation |
Option A is eliminated. Options B and C proceed to TRC.
What TRC does: Even among rights-safe options, some carry unacceptable catastrophic tail exposure. TRC uses Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) over a governed scenario library to bound worst-tail loss across the three base catastrophe cells: (U6×D2), (U6×D7), (U7×D7). It operates strictly on the Base stream, evaluated against a floor-reference baseline for those cells. An option passes TRC only if its CVaR does not exceed threshold τ_TRC.
| Parameter | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Tail level α | 0.95 | Focus on the worst 5 % of scenarios |
| Corridor threshold τ_TRC | 0.20 | Maximum acceptable average loss in that worst tail |
| Catastrophe weight ω_c | 1/3 each | Uniform weight over the three catastrophe cells |
| Context class | Irreversible policy | AI governance norms, once institutionalized, are hard to reverse |
Five categories must appear with per-category probability sum ≥ 0.02 each:
| Category | Narrative (abbreviated) |
|---|---|
| Pandemic / biological | AI misused to design or accelerate biological threat; health-system AI failure during outbreak |
| Climate tipping cascade | AI energy demand accelerates critical emissions; infrastructure AI fails during climate shock |
| Financial system collapse | Automated trading or credit AI triggers cascade; AI-assisted fraud at systemic scale |
| Major conflict escalation | AI-enabled disinformation triggers geopolitical crisis; autonomous weapon misuse |
| Critical infrastructure failure | AI systems controlling power, water, or communications fail or are compromised |
| Scenario | Category | p_s | L(B, s) | L(C, s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 — Successful governed scale | Other | 0.50 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| S2 — Moderate misuse incidents | Other | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| S3 — Infrastructure AI failure | Critical infrastructure | 0.08 | 0.28 | 0.04 |
| S4 — Disinformation triggers conflict | Conflict escalation | 0.06 | 0.32 | 0.05 |
| S5 — Financial cascade via AI | Financial collapse | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.06 |
| S6 — Pandemic accelerated by AI | Pandemic / biological | 0.05 | 0.38 | 0.05 |
| S7 — Climate shock + AI energy demand | Climate tipping | 0.04 | 0.40 | 0.04 |
| S8 — Severe misalignment | Conflict / infrastructure | 0.02 | 0.60 | 0.03 |
Loss L(a, s) = weighted average of negative Base-stream impacts across catastrophe cells under scenario s, relative to the floor-reference baseline. L = 0 means no harm below the floor; L = 1 means maximum possible harm.
Option B — Bounded pilot (base version, no additional hard safeguards):
Sort scenarios by loss descending: S8 (L = 0.60, p = 0.02), S7 (L = 0.40, p = 0.04), …
Accumulate probability until reaching β = 0.05:
- S8 contributes p = 0.02 → cumulative = 0.02
- S7 contributes p = 0.03 more → cumulative = 0.05 ✓
Option B+ — Bounded pilot with strict hard safeguards (capability restrictions on highest-risk domains, real-time monitoring, verified shutdown authority, mandatory red-team access). Hard safeguards reduce worst-tail losses:
Option C — Delay:
No deployment means worst-case catastrophe-cell losses are near-zero:
| Option | CVaR_0.95 | τ_TRC | TRC |
|---|---|---|---|
| B — Bounded pilot (base, no hard safeguards) | 0.48 | 0.20 | ❌ FAIL |
| B+ — Bounded pilot with hard safeguards | 0.16 | 0.20 | ✅ PASS |
| C — Delay | 0.054 | 0.20 | ✅ PASS |
This is "unioning" in action. Option B in its base form fails TRC because the catastrophic tail — severe misalignment or infrastructure cascade — exceeds the corridor even in a nominally "bounded" deployment. The framework does not simply reject B and stop. It pushes toward redesign: what conditions make the option admissible? Answer: add capability restrictions, real-time monitoring, verified shutdown authority, and mandatory red-team access. That redesigned option is B+, and B+ passes. Treating an apparent rejection as a design problem before accepting failure is what the canon calls unioning.
Option B (base) is eliminated. Options B+ and C proceed to Containment.
What Containment does: Even a rights-safe, tail-safe option can fail if a sub-union's gains come at the cost of degrading the coherence, resilience, or integrity of its containing Union Scopes. This prevents "local wins that hollow out the system."
Containment is assessed via ΔUCI (change in Union Coherence Index) for containing scopes using the Base stream. Default tolerance: τ_c = −0.10. A containing scope's coherence must not drop more than 0.10 on the UCI scale due to this option.
For Option B+, the primary concern is whether organizational and polity-level gains come at the cost of degrading Humanity/CMIU coherence — specifically whether concentrated AI capability in one jurisdiction fractures global governance norms.
| Benefiting scope | Containing scope checked | ΔUCI (illustrative) | Tolerance τ_c | Pass? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U4 Organization | U5 Polity | +0.05 | −0.10 | ✅ |
| U4 Organization | U6 Humanity/CMIU | −0.04 | −0.10 | ✅ |
| U5 Polity | U6 Humanity/CMIU | −0.07 | −0.10 | ✅ |
| U5 Polity | U7 Biosphere | −0.02 | −0.10 | ✅ |
For Option C (delay), no deployment means no coherence stress — containment passes trivially.
Note on UCI values: These ΔUCI values are provisional teaching estimates, not empirically calibrated structural measurements. A Tier 3 run must derive UCI from structural and process indicators that are independent of welfare-cell impacts, per v8.6 Section 11.1.2 and Appendix E. Where validated instruments do not yet exist, values must be labeled provisional in the PCC. Unknown ΔUCI is never treated as a pass; if required UCI inputs are unavailable, the run must record CONTAINMENT_UCI_UNAVAILABLE and choose DOWNGRADE_TIER or COLLECT_DATA_RERUN.
Containment result:
| Option | Containment |
|---|---|
| B+ — Bounded pilot with hard safeguards | ✅ PASS |
| C — Delay | ✅ PASS |
Both options proceed to RLS ranking.
What RLS does: Among selectable options — those that passed all gates — RLS ranks by expected welfare improvement across the full 7 × 7 matrix, using governed weights. RLS uses the Welfare stream.
Non-maskable cells: Rights-covered and catastrophe cells remain non-maskable. The applicability mask m(u,d) affects RLS aggregation only and cannot bypass admissibility. These cells stay in the RLS sum to preserve continuous optimization pressure toward larger safety margins even among admissible options, and to keep rights and tail-risk performance legible for governance review.
The union and dimension weights below are built by adding a uniform residual allocation on top of the v8.6 Section 13.1 constitutional floors. In a real governed run, the residual is distributed via Hybrid Democratic Weighting (HDW). The floors themselves — the minimum attention each scope and dimension must receive — are non-negotiable regardless of weight construction.
| Union Scope | w_u | Dimension | v_d | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U1 Self | 0.249 | D1 Material | 0.137 | |
| U2 Household | 0.109 | D2 Health | 0.157 | |
| U3 Community | 0.109 | D3 Social | 0.137 | |
| U4 Organization | 0.109 | D4 Knowledge | 0.137 | |
| U5 Polity | 0.129 | D5 Agency | 0.157 | |
| U6 Humanity/CMIU | 0.149 | D6 Meaning | 0.117 | |
| U7 Biosphere | 0.149 | D7 Environment | 0.157 |
Propagated Welfare-stream impacts for each active cell, on the [−1, +1] scale, relative to the status-quo baseline used for welfare ranking.
Reading the table: +0.18 means the option improves that cell 18 % of the way toward the best plausible outcome relative to baseline. −0.06 means a 6 % degradation. Zero means no material predicted change.
| Cell | B+ Impact | C Impact | Why the difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| U1 × D1 | +0.08 | 0.00 | B+ enables economic access; delay forecloses it |
| U1 × D2 | +0.06 | −0.02 | B+ improves health-service access; delay has small foregone benefit |
| U1 × D4 | +0.18 | −0.04 | B+ expands learning and knowledge access; delay has epistemic cost |
| U1 × D5 | +0.10 | +0.02 | B+ includes user-control mechanisms; C is largely neutral |
| U2 × D1 | +0.05 | −0.03 | B+ productivity gains reach households; delay costs them |
| U2 × D2 | +0.04 | −0.01 | B+ medical AI benefit; C has marginal health cost |
| U3 × D3 | −0.06 | +0.03 | B+ carries social-trust risk; C preserves it — HOI flag |
| U3 × D4 | +0.12 | −0.02 | B+ improves knowledge commons; C slight loss |
| U4 × D1 | +0.14 | −0.08 | B+ enables productivity; delay costs firms |
| U4 × D5 | −0.08 | +0.02 | B+ creates compliance asymmetry; C avoids it |
| U5 × D4 | +0.06 | +0.01 | B+ improves public information when well governed |
| U5 × D5 | +0.04 | +0.03 | B+ preserves democratic agency through oversight structure |
| U6 × D2 | +0.03 | −0.01 | B+ modest global health benefit; C small foregone gain |
| U6 × D4 | +0.10 | −0.03 | B+ expands global epistemic commons |
| U6 × D6 | +0.05 | −0.02 | B+ advances human meaning at civilizational scale; C defers it |
| U6 × D7 | −0.04 | +0.01 | B+ has energy footprint; C does not — HOI flag |
| U7 × D7 | −0.03 | +0.01 | B+ compute infrastructure demand; C neutral — HOI flag |
Key nonzero cell contributions:
| Cell | w_u × v_d | B+ impact | B+ contribution | C impact | C contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U1 × D4 | 0.249 × 0.137 = 0.0341 | +0.18 | +0.00614 | −0.04 | −0.00136 |
| U1 × D5 | 0.249 × 0.157 = 0.0391 | +0.10 | +0.00391 | +0.02 | +0.00078 |
| U3 × D3 | 0.109 × 0.137 = 0.0149 | −0.06 | −0.00090 | +0.03 | +0.00045 |
| U3 × D4 | 0.109 × 0.137 = 0.0149 | +0.12 | +0.00179 | −0.02 | −0.00030 |
| U4 × D1 | 0.109 × 0.137 = 0.0149 | +0.14 | +0.00209 | −0.08 | −0.00120 |
| U4 × D5 | 0.109 × 0.157 = 0.0171 | −0.08 | −0.00137 | +0.02 | +0.00034 |
| U6 × D4 | 0.149 × 0.137 = 0.0204 | +0.10 | +0.00204 | −0.03 | −0.00061 |
| U6 × D7 | 0.149 × 0.157 = 0.0234 | −0.04 | −0.00094 | +0.01 | +0.00023 |
| U7 × D7 | 0.149 × 0.157 = 0.0234 | −0.03 | −0.00070 | +0.01 | +0.00023 |
Summing all active cells:
Using Method B (confidence c = 0.80 for all active nonzero cells; CellConfidenceAggregationMethod = CCAM_MIN_V1):
RLS result: Option B+ wins decisively.
UCI measures whether the decision builds or erodes the structural health of each Union Scope across four components: Cohesion (H), Flow (F), Resilience (R), Equity (E).
Important: The ΔUCI values below are provisional teaching estimates, not empirically calibrated structural measurements. A Tier 3 run must derive UCI from structural and process indicators that are independent of welfare impacts (v8.6 Section 11.1.2, Appendix E). Where validated instruments do not yet exist, values must be labeled provisional in the PCC.
| Union Scope | ΔUCI under B+ | Key driver | Risk flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| U1 Self | +0.04 | Increased knowledge access and user-control tools | — |
| U2 Household | +0.02 | Modest economic spillover | — |
| U3 Community | −0.03 | Social trust risk from content-ecosystem change | |
| U4 Organization | +0.06 | Productivity and coordination improvements | — |
| U5 Polity | +0.02 | Oversight institutions strengthened by pilot structure | — |
| U6 Humanity/CMIU | −0.04 | Coordination norms under stress from uneven global access | |
| U7 Biosphere | −0.02 | Energy demand increase requires mitigation |
All ΔUCI values remain above τ_c = −0.10. No containing-scope coherence collapses. The negative readings at U3, U6, and U7 flag ongoing monitoring needs but do not disqualify B+.
HOI is a monitoring signal, not a gate. It detects welfare-up / coherence-down drift — the pattern where apparent gains mask structural erosion over time.
For Option B+, the HOI risk zones to track across review cycles are:
- U3 Community (D3 Social): Social trust may erode faster than productivity gains suggest. If Community UCI declines consistently while RLS stays positive, HOI rises — a red flag requiring governance escalation.
- U6 Humanity/CMIU: If governance norms fragment globally, the civilizational benefit of deployment can reverse. Monitor cross-border coordination indicators.
- U7 Biosphere (D7 Environment): Compute energy demand must be tracked against planetary boundary indicators.
HOI does not eliminate B+. It defines what the NCAR Reflect cycle must watch at every scheduled review.
| Gate | Option A | Option B (base) | Option B+ | Option C |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCRC | ❌ INFO, PROC violations | ✅ PASS | ✅ PASS | ✅ PASS |
| TRC | eliminated | ❌ CVaR 0.48 > 0.20 | ✅ CVaR 0.16 | ✅ CVaR 0.054 |
| Containment | eliminated | eliminated | ✅ All ΔUCI ≥ −0.10 | ✅ |
| RLS | eliminated | eliminated | +0.023 | −0.005 |
| UCI / HOI | eliminated | eliminated | Stable but low benefit | |
| Selected | ✅ B+ SELECTED | Not selected |
Reading the table correctly: Option B (base) passes NCRC — it does not violate any rights floor. It fails only at TRC, because its catastrophic tail exposure without hard safeguards exceeds the corridor. The framework then asks: can we redesign B to pass TRC? Yes — that redesigned version is B+. This is the "unioning" move: treating an apparent rejection as a design problem before accepting failure.
CONTEXT: A national government must decide whether to authorize deployment of a high-capability frontier AI model for broad public and commercial use.
OPTIONS: Three options were evaluated: unrestricted deployment (A), a bounded governed pilot with hard safeguards (B+), and delay pending further safety testing (C).
CONSTRAINTS: Option A was eliminated by NCRC because unrestricted deployment drives the worst-off subgroup below the floor-reference rights floor on epistemic autonomy (INFO, cells U1×D4 and U5×D4) and due process (PROC, cell U5×D5). Option B in its base form was eliminated by TRC because its catastrophic-tail CVaR (0.48) exceeded the corridor threshold (0.20); it was redesigned into B+ by adding capability restrictions, real-time monitoring, shutdown authority, and mandatory red-team access, which reduced CVaR to 0.16.
SELECTION: Option B+ passed all gates and produced a decisive welfare gain over delay — RLS gap ≈ 4.5 σ — primarily through knowledge access (U1×D4, U6×D4), economic benefit (U4×D1), and polity-level epistemic and agency improvements (U5×D4, U5×D5).
MONITORING: Community social trust (U3×D3), global coordination coherence (U6), and biosphere energy demand (U7×D7) are HOI risk zones; UCI and RLS for these scopes must be reviewed every 6 months, with a mandatory cascade rerun if any ΔUCI drops below −0.10 or a credible new catastrophic pathway is identified.
| Framework principle | How it appears here |
|---|---|
| Rights first, not last | Option A eliminated before any welfare calculation — no productivity gain rescues a rights-floor violation |
| Floor-reference baseline for gates | Rights and TRC are not evaluated against today's imperfect status quo but against what rights-safe and tail-safe conditions require |
| Base stream vs Welfare stream | NCRC and TRC use Base stream (s_k := 1). Only RLS uses Welfare stream. They must never be mixed |
| Tail risk ≠ expected value | Option B's average outcome looks acceptable; its CVaR in the worst 5 % of scenarios is not — the core CVaR insight operationalized |
| Unioning, not just rejecting | B+ is not B. The framework treats apparent rejection as a design problem: what conditions make the option admissible? |
| Dimensions matter | The decision turns on D4 (Knowledge) and D5 (Agency) — completely invisible if you think only in union rows |
| Non-maskable cells | Rights-covered and catastrophe cells cannot be masked away from RLS; the mask affects aggregation only, never admissibility |
| Provisional UCI | ΔUCI values in a teaching example are estimates — real Tier 3 runs require structurally independent indicators, not welfare proxies |
| HOI prevents false positives | Even after B+ wins, the framework flags structural erosion risks at U3, U6, and U7 that a pure RLS score would not reveal |
| Every number is traceable | Every score follows from declared impact instances and canonical equations — no rhetorical override, no black box |
This is a Tier 2 illustrative example. A Tier 3 run would additionally require:
- Subgroup disaggregation for all rights-covered cells — separate worst-off analysis for marginalized communities, children, political minorities, precarious workers
- ≥ 20 TRC scenarios with pre-registered probabilities, mandatory tail categories confirmed and probability floors met, and independent reviewer sign-off
- Containment Mode A with actual UCI structural indicators derived independently of welfare impacts, per Appendix E; unknown ΔUCI recorded as CONTAINMENT_UCI_UNAVAILABLE with disposition and remediation timeline
- Full sensitivity analysis — perturb θ_r by ±0.05, perturb weights, perturb kernel edges if QUICK propagation is used; re-check whether any gate outcomes change
- Full PCC — all parameters, all intermediate computations, all audit flags, all stakeholder instances, all redundancy handling declarations, floor-reference baseline declarations for all C_r and C_cat cells, signatures, and 5SPR
- SCI ≥ 2 — at least one independent challenger pass for omitted stakeholder classes, with a Next-Run Upgrade Plan recorded in the PCC
Ripple_Logic v8.6 | ripplelogic.org | mathgov.org Canonical repository: github.com/MathGov/ripple-logic Author: James McGaughran | ORCID: 0009-0005-3324-7290 License: CC BY 4.0