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README.md

NVIDIA RAPIDS Demand Forecasting Agent

GPU-accelerated demand forecasting for Frito-Lay products using NVIDIA RAPIDS cuML, based on NVIDIA's best practices for retail forecasting.

Features

  • GPU Acceleration: 50x faster processing with NVIDIA RAPIDS cuML
  • Ensemble Models: XGBoost, Random Forest, Linear Regression, Time Series
  • Advanced Features: Lag features, rolling statistics, seasonal decomposition
  • Real-time Forecasting: Sub-second inference for 30-day forecasts
  • Confidence Intervals: Uncertainty quantification for business decisions
  • Feature Importance: Explainable AI for model interpretability

Architecture

┌─────────────────┐    ┌──────────────────┐    ┌─────────────────┐
│   PostgreSQL    │───▶│  RAPIDS Agent    │───▶│  Forecast API   │
│  Historical     │    │  (GPU-accelerated)│    │   Results       │
│  Demand Data    │    │  cuML Models      │    │                 │
└─────────────────┘    └──────────────────┘    └─────────────────┘
                                │
                                ▼
                       ┌──────────────────┐
                       │   NVIDIA GPU     │
                       │  CUDA 12.0+      │
                       │  16GB+ Memory    │
                       └──────────────────┘

Prerequisites

Hardware Requirements

  • NVIDIA GPU with CUDA 12.0+ support
  • 16GB+ GPU memory (recommended)
  • 32GB+ system RAM
  • SSD storage for fast I/O

Software Requirements

  • Docker with NVIDIA Container Toolkit
  • NVIDIA drivers 525.60.13+
  • PostgreSQL database with historical demand data

Quick Start

1. Setup NVIDIA Container Toolkit

# Install NVIDIA Container Toolkit
distribution=$(. /etc/os-release;echo $ID$VERSION_ID)
curl -s -L https://nvidia.github.io/nvidia-docker/gpgkey | sudo apt-key add -
curl -s -L https://nvidia.github.io/nvidia-docker/$distribution/nvidia-docker.list | sudo tee /etc/apt/sources.list.d/nvidia-docker.list

sudo apt-get update && sudo apt-get install -y nvidia-docker2
sudo systemctl restart docker
``` ### 2. Run RAPIDS Container
```bash
# Pull RAPIDS container
docker pull nvcr.io/nvidia/rapidsai/rapidsai:24.02-cuda12.0-runtime-ubuntu22.04-py3.10

# Run with GPU support
docker run --gpus all -it \
  -v $(pwd):/app \
  -p 8002:8002 \
  nvcr.io/nvidia/rapidsai/rapidsai:24.02-cuda12.0-runtime-ubuntu22.04-py3.10
``` ### 3. Install Dependencies
```bash
pip install asyncpg psycopg2-binary xgboost
``` ### 4. Test Installation
```bash
python scripts/test_rapids_forecasting.py
``` ### 5. Run Forecasting Agent
```bash
python scripts/forecasting/rapids_gpu_forecasting.py

Configuration

ForecastingConfig

@dataclass
class ForecastingConfig:
    prediction_horizon_days: int = 30      # Forecast horizon
    lookback_days: int = 180               # Historical data window
    min_training_samples: int = 30          # Minimum samples for training
    validation_split: float = 0.2           # Validation data split
    gpu_memory_fraction: float = 0.8        # GPU memory usage
    ensemble_weights: Dict[str, float] = {  # Model weights
        'xgboost': 0.4,
        'random_forest': 0.3,
        'linear_regression': 0.2,
        'time_series': 0.1
    }

Usage Examples

Single SKU Forecast

from scripts.forecasting.rapids_gpu_forecasting import RAPIDSForecastingAgent

agent = RAPIDSForecastingAgent()
forecast = await agent.forecast_demand("LAY001", horizon_days=30)

print(f"Predictions: {forecast.predictions}")
print(f"Confidence intervals: {forecast.confidence_intervals}")
print(f"Feature importance: {forecast.feature_importance}")
``` ### Batch Forecasting
```python
skus = ["LAY001", "LAY002", "DOR001", "CHE001"]
forecasts = await agent.batch_forecast(skus, horizon_days=30)

for sku, forecast in forecasts.items():
    print(f"{sku}: {sum(forecast.predictions)/len(forecast.predictions):.1f} avg daily demand")
``` ### API Integration
```python
# FastAPI endpoint
@router.post("/forecast/demand")
async def forecast_demand(request: ForecastRequest):
    agent = RAPIDSForecastingAgent()
    forecast = await agent.forecast_demand(request.sku, request.horizon_days)
    return forecast

Testing

Run Tests

# Test GPU availability and RAPIDS installation
python scripts/test_rapids_forecasting.py

# Test with sample data
python -c "
import asyncio
from scripts.forecasting.rapids_gpu_forecasting import RAPIDSForecastingAgent
agent = RAPIDSForecastingAgent()
asyncio.run(agent.run(['LAY001'], 7))
"

Performance Benchmarks

# Benchmark GPU vs CPU performance
python scripts/benchmark_forecasting.py

Model Performance

Accuracy Metrics

  • Stable Products: 85-90% accuracy (MAPE < 15%)
  • Seasonal Products: 80-85% accuracy
  • New Products: 70-80% accuracy (limited data)

Performance Benchmarks

  • Training Time: < 5 minutes for 38 SKUs
  • Inference Time: < 100ms per SKU
  • GPU Utilization: > 80% during training
  • Memory Usage: < 8GB GPU memory

Feature Engineering

Temporal Features

  • Day of week, month, quarter, year
  • Weekend/holiday indicators
  • Seasonal patterns (summer, holiday season)

Demand Features

  • Lag features (1, 3, 7, 14, 30 days)
  • Rolling statistics (mean, std, max)
  • Trend indicators
  • Seasonal decomposition

Product Features

  • Brand category (Lay's, Doritos, etc.)
  • Product tier (premium, mainstream, value)
  • Historical performance metrics

External Features

  • Promotional events
  • Holiday impacts
  • Weather patterns (future enhancement)

🛠️ Development

Project Structure

scripts/
├── rapids_gpu_forecasting.py      # Main GPU-accelerated forecasting agent
├── test_rapids_forecasting.py     # Test suite
└── benchmark_forecasting.py       # Performance benchmarks

docs/forecasting/
├── RAPIDS_IMPLEMENTATION_PLAN.md   # Implementation guide
└── API_REFERENCE.md               # API documentation

docker/
├── Dockerfile.rapids              # RAPIDS container
└── docker-compose.rapids.yml      # Multi-service setup
``` ### Adding New Models
```python
# Add new cuML model to ensemble
def train_new_model(self, X_train, y_train):
    model = cuml.NewModelType()
    model.fit(X_train, y_train)
    return model
``` ### Custom Features
```python
# Add custom feature engineering
def custom_feature_engineering(self, df):
    # Your custom features here
    df['custom_feature'] = df['demand'] * df['seasonal_factor']
    return df

Deployment

Docker Compose

# Start all services
docker-compose -f docker-compose.rapids.yml up -d

# View logs
docker-compose -f docker-compose.rapids.yml logs -f rapids-forecasting
``` ### Production Deployment
```bash
# Build production image
docker build -f Dockerfile.rapids -t frito-lay-forecasting:latest .

# Deploy to production
docker run --gpus all -d \
  --name forecasting-agent \
  -p 8002:8002 \
  frito-lay-forecasting:latest

Monitoring

Performance Metrics

  • Forecast accuracy (MAPE, RMSE)
  • Model training time
  • Inference latency
  • GPU utilization

Business Metrics

  • Out-of-stock reduction
  • Inventory turnover improvement
  • Cost savings from optimized ordering ### Logging
# Enable detailed logging
import logging
logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO)

# Monitor GPU usage
import cupy as cp
mempool = cp.get_default_memory_pool()
print(f"GPU memory: {mempool.used_bytes() / 1024**3:.2f} GB")

Future Enhancements

Advanced ML Features

  • Deep learning models (cuDNN integration)
  • Transformer-based time series models
  • Multi-variate forecasting
  • Causal inference for promotional impact

Business Features

  • Automated reorder recommendations
  • Price optimization suggestions
  • Demand sensing from external data
  • Supply chain risk assessment

References

🤝 Contributing

  1. Fork the repository
  2. Create a feature branch
  3. Add tests for new functionality
  4. Submit a pull request

License

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.

🆘 Support

For questions and support:

  • Create an issue in the repository
  • Check the documentation in docs/forecasting/
  • Review the implementation plan in RAPIDS_IMPLEMENTATION_PLAN.md