Merge pull request #456 from ashilovtax/CBO_2026_BASELINE_UPDATE

CBO 2026 baseline update

Author: jdebacker

cps_stage1/stage1.py

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 
 def main(syr=2014):
     SYR = str(syr)  # Start year of CPS
-    EYR = 2035  # Last year in our extrapolation
+    EYR = 2036  # Last year in our extrapolation
 
     # Read in state SOI estimates
     soi_estimates = pd.read_csv(

cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv

@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
-,2014,2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035
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+Dep_return,96916673,96505181,94809260,94708629,99911398,100735190,101549290,102373082,103187182,104001282,104805690,105610099,106414507,107209224,107984557,108759890,109525532,110281482,111018049,111744924,112452416,113150216,113828632,114487666,115137008,115776658
+INTS,156367939,95881223,96640233,106055367,124828526,125813644,138072890,143545768,146829495,146407301,134695343,144655980,162638293,171254167,180855158,201136080,216851058,237272711,256959434,272752596,288655215,304636019,319256421,335377956,349826353,364024562
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+Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,846471849,889515039,925594384,996293984,1075416519,1097236565,1184848358,1251170684,1312916769,1375326078,1435613073,1496828580,1557447186,1620785008,1688035846,1758735446,1831358393,1906567911,1983833421,2063552857
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cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ function Solve_func(year, tol)
 
 end
 
-year_list = [x for x in 2014:2035]
+year_list = [x for x in 2014:2036]
 tol = 0.70
 
 # Run solver function for all years and tolerances (in order)

cps_stage2/solver.jl

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
 STAGE_1_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "puf_stage1", "Stage_I_factors.csv")
 STAGE_2_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "cps_stage1", "stage_2_targets.csv")
 START_YEAR = 2014
-END_YEAR = 2035
+END_YEAR = 2036
 
 # Read hashes used to see which years can be skipped
 with open(Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "datahashes.json")) as f:

cps_stage2/stage2.py

@@ -2,7 +2,6 @@
 from taxdata import cps
 from pathlib import Path
 
-
 CUR_PATH = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
 DATA_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "data")
 

createcps.py

@@ -47,9 +47,9 @@ As previously mentioned, most of the variables we used can be found in the
 To manually update these variables download the latest file and copy/paste the 
 specific variables.
 
-Previous Document: February 2023
+Previous Document: January 2025
 
-Current Document: January 2025
+Current Document: February 2026
 
 | Variable | Name In CBO Document                                |
 |----------|-----------------------------------------------------|
@@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ Source: [Revenue Projections, By Category (CBO)](https://www.cbo.gov/about/produ
 
 Previous: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx)
 
-Current: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx)
+Current: [February 2026](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51138-2026-02-Revenue.xlsx)
 
 In the revenue projections file, the data is in the `Capital Gains Realizations`
 tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column.
@@ -83,7 +83,7 @@ Source: [IRS Publication 6187 Table 1B](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/projectio
 
 Previous: [Fall 2022 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
-Current: [Publication 6187 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/24projpub6187tables.xlsx)
+Current: [Publication 6187 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/25projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
 The projections in the publication typically end a few years before the
 10-year projections do. We use the growth rate from the final year in the
@@ -96,16 +96,19 @@ Source: [OASI Trust Fund Annual Trustees Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/)
 Table VI.C4. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Table VI.C4, Column:
 `Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level`
 
-Previous: [2023 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2023/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
+Previous: [2024 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
-Current: [2024 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
+Current: [2025 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2025/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
 Projections are taken directly from the `Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level`
 column of this table.
 
 ### CPIM (CPI Medical Care)
 
-Source: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)
+Previous: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)
+
+Current: [CBO Economic Projections](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51135-2026-02-Economic-Projections.xlsx)
+
 
 Series ID: CUSR0000SAM
 Access Date: 
@@ -120,13 +123,15 @@ Manual Instructions:
 6. Find the average difference between CPI-U from the CBO 10-Year projections
 7. Add this average difference to the CBO CPI-U projections
 
+NOTE: The latest CBO Economic Projections contain forecasts for the CPI-U Medical Care. This is now used in CBO_baseline.csv for CPIM 
+
 ### UCOMP
 
 Source: [CBO Unemployment Compensation projections](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs#24)
 
 Previous: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51316-2025-01-unemployment.xlsx)
 
-Current: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51316-2025-01-unemployment.xlsx)
+Current: [February 2026](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51316-2026-02-unemployment.xlsx)
 
 Note: Change the `Total Benefits` number from the table to be in terms of
 billions rather than millions of dollars

data/cps.csv.gz

@@ -26,4 +26,4 @@ dependencies:
   - requests-html
   - black
   - taxcalc>=5.3.0
-  - jupyter-book>=0.9.1
+  - jupyter-book<2.0.0