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Re-freeze the manuscript on the 24-model corrected-reference board#121

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manuscript-refreeze-24-models
Jul 11, 2026
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Re-freeze the manuscript on the 24-model corrected-reference board#121
MaxGhenis merged 1 commit into
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manuscript-refreeze-24-models

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Prepares the paper for SSRN/arXiv submission by advancing the frozen manuscript snapshot from the June 13-model board to the current 24-model v1.1 board.

Why the June snapshot could not ship

  • Its references were generated with policyengine-us 1.723.0 and contain the four defects the audit program later found and fixed (verified: scenario_056 still carried the incorrect NJ state tax in the frozen data).
  • Its abstract claimed "zero PolicyEngine reference defects," which the post-freeze triage falsified for exactly those references.
  • Its GPT-5.5 wave ran with a low-effort pin later traced to a harness token-budget artifact.

What the re-freeze does

  • Snapshot: 24 models, references regenerated with policyengine-us 1.755.4, every model at unconfigured provider defaults, decisive-diagnosis audit annotations (6,031 rows: 5,466 llm_error + 565 deterministic parse_contract_failure; zero unresolved, zero reference-suspect). The frozen us/data.json recombines byte-exactly to the published dashboard-data-20260710 artifact, and the manifest records the multi-wave response window (2026-06-12 to 2026-07-10).
  • Abstract: the audit sentence now states the real record — 35 reference-suspect flags across three waves, 31 dissolved against primary sources and engine traces, 4 genuine defects fixed upstream before this snapshot's references were generated, and parse failures (1.2% of cells) scored as misses rather than dropped.
  • Reference-output credibility: rewritten around the adversarial review program, with the audit-tooling hardening reported (trace-grounded derivation narratives with mechanism validators; a judge contract requiring per-model diagnoses, with hedged verdicts mechanically rejected and reference doubt routed to structured flags for manual adjudication).
  • Limitations: discloses the scenario_121 encoding mismatch and the two input-semantics conventions slated for the next scenario refresh.
  • Parse coverage: stated truthfully everywhere (565 unparsable cells, concentrated in Kimi K2.6 and GLM-5.2, stand as scored misses); the prior "zero missing values" claims are gone, including one in Failure modes that contradicted the appendix.
  • Tooling: freeze_snapshot.py emits the live_dashboard_artifact block, freezes the trace-grounded narratives alongside annotations, and parse_contract_failure joins llm_error as a final annotation class in the validator.

Verification

  • All 16 snapshot-artifact tests pass, including byte-exact recombination of the frozen export to the published artifact sha.
  • Full Python suite: 481 passed; Ruff clean.
  • Paper renders clean to HTML and PDF; rendered hashes re-pinned in the manifest. PDF spot-checks assert the corrected claims ("GPT-5.6 Sol at 88.7", "35 reference-suspect flags", "policyengine-us 1.755.4", "565 cells (1.2%)") and the absence of the stale zero-missing claim.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

The frozen snapshot advances from the June 13-model board (pe-us
1.723.0 references, pinned-low GPT-5.5) to the live 24-model v1.1
board: references regenerated with policyengine-us 1.755.4 after the
audit-driven fixes (#8845 NJ filing-threshold floor, #8846 Head Start
age window, #8844 CA asset limit), every model at unconfigured
provider defaults, and the decisive-diagnosis audit annotations
(6,031 rows: 5,466 llm_error + 565 deterministic parse failures,
zero unresolved, zero reference-suspect).

The abstract's audit claim is corrected: the adversarial review
raised 35 reference-suspect flags across three waves, 31 dissolved
against primary sources and engine traces, and the 4 genuine defects
were fixed upstream before this snapshot's references were
generated. New prose documents the audit-tooling hardening
(trace-grounded narratives with mechanism validators; a judge
contract that requires per-model diagnoses and mechanically rejects
hedged verdicts) and discloses the scenario_121 encoding mismatch
under Limitations. Parse coverage is stated truthfully: 565 cells
score zero as parse-contract failures rather than the prior
zero-missing claim.

freeze_snapshot.py now emits the live_dashboard_artifact block,
freezes the trace-grounded reference narratives alongside the audit
annotations, and records the multi-wave response window (2026-06-12
to 2026-07-10). parse_contract_failure joins llm_error as a final
annotation class.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit f108a95 into main Jul 11, 2026
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the manuscript-refreeze-24-models branch July 11, 2026 14:10
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