reforms_config.yaml

reforms:
- name: Raise basic rate by 1pp
  expected_impact: 7.4
  parameters:
    gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[0].rate: 0.21
- name: Raise higher rate by 1pp
  expected_impact: 5.4
  parameters:
    gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate: 0.42
- name: Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year
  expected_impact: -4.2
  parameters:
    gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount: 13000
- name: Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child
  expected_impact: -1.4
  parameters:
    gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.additional: 25
- name: Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%
  expected_impact: -17.2
  tolerance: 15.0
  parameters:
    gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.reduction_rate: 0.2
- name: Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%
  expected_impact: 12.4
  parameters:
    gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.1
- name: Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp
  # Delta scales as `consumption * 0.5 * 0.02 / 0.38 ≈ 0.0263 * consumption`
  # (full-rate share 0.5 × 2pp rate change ÷ 0.38 microdata-VAT-coverage
  # parameter). The enhanced FRS now carries a UK-realistic ~£1.6T total
  # consumption base (ONS 2025 total consumer expenditure ≈ £1.6T), so a
  # 2pp standard-rate rise produces ~£43 bn. The prior 25.0 bn expectation
  # predates the consumption-base growth. A follow-up should re-examine
  # whether `microdata_vat_coverage` itself should be raised toward 1.0
  # now that the enhanced FRS consumption aggregate has caught up — see
  # #364.
  expected_impact: 43.0
  tolerance: 10.0
  parameters:
    gov.hmrc.vat.standard_rate: 0.22
- name: Raise additional rate by 3pp
  expected_impact: 4.3
  parameters:
    gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].rate: 0.48