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Child limit targets need 2024-25 uprating #117

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Merged
nikhilwoodruff merged 1 commit into from
May 27, 2025
Merged

Child limit targets need 2024-25 uprating #117

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4 changes: 4 additions & 0 deletions changelog_entry.yaml
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
- bump: patch
changes:
fixed:
- Uprating in child limit target.
9 changes: 7 additions & 2 deletions policyengine_uk_data/tests/test_child_limit.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -29,8 +29,13 @@ def test_child_limit():
).sum()
households_affected = (capped_households * household_weight).sum()

child_target = 1.6e6 # Expected number of affected children
household_target = 440e3 # Expected number of affected households
UPRATING_24_25 = 1.12 # https://ifs.org.uk/articles/two-child-limit-poverty-incentives-and-cost, table at the end
child_target = (
1.6e6 * UPRATING_24_25
) # Expected number of affected children
household_target = (
440e3 * UPRATING_24_25
) # Expected number of affected households

assert (
abs(children_affected / child_target - 1) < 0.1
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5 changes: 3 additions & 2 deletions policyengine_uk_data/utils/loss.py
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Expand Up @@ -252,11 +252,12 @@ def pe_count(*variables):
children_in_capped_households
)
target_names.append("dwp/uc_two_child_limit_affected_child_count")
target_values.append(1.6e6) # DWP statistics for 2024/25
UPRATING_24_25 = 1.12 # https://ifs.org.uk/articles/two-child-limit-poverty-incentives-and-cost, table at the end
target_values.append(1.6e6 * UPRATING_24_25) # DWP statistics for 2024/25
# https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-and-child-tax-credit-claimants-statistics-related-to-the-policy-to-provide-support-for-a-maximum-of-2-children-april-2024/universal-credit-and-child-tax-credit-claimants-statistics-related-to-the-policy-to-provide-support-for-a-maximum-of-two-children-april-2024
df["dwp/uc_two_child_limit_affected_household_count"] = capped_households
target_names.append("dwp/uc_two_child_limit_affected_household_count")
target_values.append(440e3) # DWP statistics for 2024/25
target_values.append(440e3 * UPRATING_24_25) # DWP statistics for 2024/25

combined_targets = pd.concat(
[
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