Add calibration target for babies under 1 in Scotland#259
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Add scotland_babies_under_1 calibration target (~46k) based on NRS Vital Events data. This addresses overestimation of babies in Scotland (99k vs 46k actual births per year). Source: NRS Vital Events Reference Tables 2024 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/publications/vital-events-reference-tables-2024/ Changes: - demographics.csv: Add scotland_babies_under_1 entry (46k for all years) - loss.py: Add matrix column for Scotland babies under 1 - test_scotland_babies.py: Add test to validate calibration accuracy (15% tolerance) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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MaxGhenis
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Jan 15, 2026
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Summary
Add calibration target for babies under 1 in Scotland to improve accuracy of Scottish Child Payment (SCP) baby boost modeling.
Add
scotland_babies_under_1calibration target (46k) from NRS Vital Events data.Changes
demographics.csvscotland_babies_under_1row with 46k targetloss.py(region == "SCOTLAND") & (age < 1)test_scotland_babies.pyData source
Test plan
pytest policyengine_uk_data/tests/test_scotland_babies.pyafter recalibration