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Add Scottish Child Payment as calibration target#261

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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into
mainfrom
add-scp-calibration-target
Jan 17, 2026
Merged

Add Scottish Child Payment as calibration target#261
MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into
mainfrom
add-scp-calibration-target

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@MaxGhenis

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Summary

Adds Scottish Child Payment total spend as a calibration target to improve microsimulation accuracy.

Changes

  • Add sss/scottish_child_payment to calibration matrix
  • Target values from Scottish Budget 2026-27, Table 5.08:
    • 2024: £455.8m
    • 2025: £471.0m
    • 2026: £484.8m
  • Extrapolates 3% annual growth for other years

Source

Scottish Budget 2026-27, Chapter 5

Note

This will require a dataset rebuild after merge to recalibrate weights to match SCP totals.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

- Add SCP total spend to calibration targets
- Source: Scottish Budget 2026-27, Table 5.08
- Values: £455.8m (2024), £471.0m (2025), £484.8m (2026)
- Extrapolates 3% growth for other years

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

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Closing - SCP is already within 0.7% of target without explicit calibration. Existing Scotland demographic and UC calibration targets are sufficient.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis closed this Jan 17, 2026
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis reopened this Jan 17, 2026
Move scottish_child_payment df assignment to after the statistics lookup
to avoid KeyError when looking up targets. Custom targets (not in
statistics CSV) should be added after the initial targets lookup.

Also use household_from_person instead of household_from_family since
scottish_child_payment is now a Person-level variable.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit b1d4a84 into main Jan 17, 2026
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the add-scp-calibration-target branch January 17, 2026 05:09
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