diff --git a/changelog_entry.yaml b/changelog_entry.yaml index e69de29bb..ee79226c3 100644 --- a/changelog_entry.yaml +++ b/changelog_entry.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +- bump: minor + changes: + added: + - Add Scottish Child Payment as a calibration target using Scottish Budget figures diff --git a/policyengine_uk_data/utils/loss.py b/policyengine_uk_data/utils/loss.py index 376ce0961..fd0f55314 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk_data/utils/loss.py +++ b/policyengine_uk_data/utils/loss.py @@ -519,6 +519,23 @@ def pe_count(*variables): target_names.append("dwp/pip_dl_enhanced_claimants") target_values.append(1_608_000) + # Scottish Child Payment total spend + # Source: Scottish Budget 2026-27, Table 5.08 + # https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-2026-2027/pages/6/ + scp = sim.calculate("scottish_child_payment") + df["sss/scottish_child_payment"] = household_from_person(scp) + SCP_SPEND = { + 2024: 455.8e6, + 2025: 471.0e6, + 2026: 484.8e6, + } + # Extrapolate for other years using 3% annual growth + scp_target = SCP_SPEND.get( + int(time_period), 471.0e6 * (1.03 ** (int(time_period) - 2025)) + ) + target_names.append("sss/scottish_child_payment") + target_values.append(scp_target) + # Council Tax band counts ct_data = pd.read_csv(STORAGE_FOLDER / "council_tax_bands_2024.csv")