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Add Scottish Child Payment as calibration target #261

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Merged
MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into from
Jan 17, 2026
Merged

Add Scottish Child Payment as calibration target #261

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1b9724c
Add Scottish Child Payment as calibration target
MaxGhenis Jan 17, 2026
87a7994
Fix SCP calibration target ordering
MaxGhenis Jan 17, 2026
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4 changes: 4 additions & 0 deletions changelog_entry.yaml
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
- bump: minor
changes:
added:
- Add Scottish Child Payment as a calibration target using Scottish Budget figures
17 changes: 17 additions & 0 deletions policyengine_uk_data/utils/loss.py
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Expand Up @@ -519,6 +519,23 @@ def pe_count(*variables):
target_names.append("dwp/pip_dl_enhanced_claimants")
target_values.append(1_608_000)

# Scottish Child Payment total spend
# Source: Scottish Budget 2026-27, Table 5.08
# https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-2026-2027/pages/6/
scp = sim.calculate("scottish_child_payment")
df["sss/scottish_child_payment"] = household_from_person(scp)
SCP_SPEND = {
2024: 455.8e6,
2025: 471.0e6,
2026: 484.8e6,
}
# Extrapolate for other years using 3% annual growth
scp_target = SCP_SPEND.get(
int(time_period), 471.0e6 * (1.03 ** (int(time_period) - 2025))
)
target_names.append("sss/scottish_child_payment")
target_values.append(scp_target)

# Council Tax band counts

ct_data = pd.read_csv(STORAGE_FOLDER / "council_tax_bands_2024.csv")
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