Use outturn data for council tax growth, 2023-25 (#1246)

Author: janton10

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -5,6 +5,12 @@ All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/), 
 and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).
 
+## [2.39.2] - 2025-07-17 10:41:08
+
+### Fixed
+
+- Use outturn data for council tax growth in England, Scotland, and Wales for 2023-2025.
+
 ## [2.39.1] - 2025-07-16 11:08:29
 
 ### Fixed
@@ -1955,6 +1961,7 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 
 
 
+[2.39.2]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.39.1...2.39.2
 [2.39.1]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.39.0...2.39.1
 [2.39.0]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.38.2...2.39.0
 [2.38.2]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.38.1...2.38.2

changelog.yaml

@@ -1651,3 +1651,9 @@
     fixed:
     - Improved water bills projections.
   date: 2025-07-16 11:08:29
+- bump: patch
+  changes:
+    fixed:
+    - Use outturn data for council tax growth in England, Scotland, and Wales for
+      2023-2025.
+  date: 2025-07-17 10:41:08

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml

@@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ obr:
       reference:
         - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.6, Row Q)
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
-  
+
   consumer_price_index:
     description: Consumer price index year-on-year growth.
     values:
@@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ obr:
       reference:
         - title: OBR EFO March 2025
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
-  
+
   non_labour_income:
     description: Non-labour income year-on-year growth.
     values:
@@ -109,55 +109,54 @@ obr:
       reference:
         - title: OBR EFO March 2025
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
-  
+
   council_tax:
     england:
-      description: Growth in the level (adjusted for household growth) of council tax receipts in England.
+      description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in England.
       values:
         2023-01-01: 0.051
         2024-01-01: 0.051
-        2025-01-01: 0.043
+        2025-01-01: 0.050
         2026-01-01: 0.043
         2027-01-01: 0.043
         2028-01-01: 0.043
         2029-01-01: 0.043
       metadata:
         unit: /1
         reference:
-        - title: OBR EFO March 2025
-          href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (2023-2025 based on outturn)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
     scotland:
-      description: Growth in the level (adjusted for household growth) of council tax receipts in Scotland.
+      description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Scotland.
       values:
-        2023-01-01: 0.026
-        2024-01-01: 0.027
-        2025-01-01: 0.027
+        2023-01-01: 0.052
+        2024-01-01: 0.001
+        2025-01-01: 0.088
         2026-01-01: 0.027
         2027-01-01: 0.027
         2028-01-01: 0.027
         2029-01-01: 0.027
       metadata:
         unit: /1
         reference:
-        - title: OBR EFO March 2025
-          href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (2023-2025 based on outturn)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
     wales:
-      description: Growth in the level (adjusted for household growth) of council tax receipts in Wales.
+      description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Wales.
       values:
-        2023-01-01: 0.038
-        2024-01-01: 0.041
-        2025-01-01: 0.041
+        2023-01-01: 0.058
+        2024-01-01: 0.077
+        2025-01-01: 0.072
         2026-01-01: 0.041
         2027-01-01: 0.041
         2028-01-01: 0.041
         2029-01-01: 0.041
       metadata:
         unit: /1
         reference:
-        - title: OBR EFO March 2025
-          href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (2023-2025 based on outturn)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
 
-  
   per_capita:
     gdp:
       description: Per capita GDP year-on-year growth.
@@ -177,7 +176,7 @@ obr:
         reference:
           - title: OBR EFO March 2025
             href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
-    
+
     mixed_income:
       description: Per capita mixed income year-on-year growth.
       values:
@@ -196,7 +195,7 @@ obr:
         reference:
           - title: OBR EFO March 2025
             href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
-    
+
     non_labour_income:
       description: Per capita non-labour income year-on-year growth.
       values:
@@ -215,7 +214,7 @@ obr:
         reference:
           - title: OBR EFO March 2025
             href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
-  
+
   house_prices:
     description: House prices year-on-year growth.
     values:
@@ -234,7 +233,7 @@ obr:
       reference:
         - title: OBR EFO March 2025
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
-  
+
   mortgage_interest:
     description: Mortgage interest year-on-year growth.
     values:
@@ -253,7 +252,7 @@ obr:
       reference:
         - title: OBR EFO March 2025
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
-  
+
   social_rent:
     description: Rent year-on-year growth (CPI+1%, one year lagged).
     values:

pyproject.toml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 [project]
 name = "policyengine-uk"
-version = "2.39.1"
+version = "2.39.2"
 description = "PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK"
 readme = "README.md"
 authors = [