Temporarily disable OBR participation responses (#1347)

nikhilwoodruff · web-flow · commit 5ecd52ff8c50 · 2025-09-29T13:26:34.000+01:00
* Fix benefit cap exemption logic

* Format

* Fix circular dependency

* Update tests

* Fix bug in LCWRA calculation

* Add changes

* Fix LSR issues

* Versioniong

* Format
diff --git a/changelog_entry.yaml b/changelog_entry.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+- bump: patch
+  changes:
+    fixed:
+    - Temporarily disabled OBR participation responses.
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/dynamics/labour_supply.py b/policyengine_uk/dynamics/labour_supply.py
@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ def calculate_excluded_from_labour_supply_responses(
         | (adult_index == 0)
         | (adult_index >= count_adults + 1)
     )
-    return excluded
+    return excluded.values
 
 
 class FTEImpacts(BaseModel):
@@ -132,8 +132,9 @@ def apply_labour_supply_responses(
     )
     reform_income = sim.calculate(target_variable, year, map_to="person")
 
-    baseline_income = baseline_income.values
-    reform_income = reform_income.values
+    baseline_income = baseline_income
+    reform_income = reform_income
+    baseline_income = pd.Series(baseline_income, index=reform_income.index)
 
     # Calculate relative changes
     income_rel_change = np.where(
@@ -154,7 +155,9 @@ def apply_labour_supply_responses(
     )
 
     # Apply extensive margin responses (participation model)
-    participation_responses = apply_participation_responses(sim=sim, year=year)
+    participation_responses = (
+        None  # = apply_participation_responses(sim=sim, year=year)
+    )
 
     # Add FTE impacts to the response data
     fte_impacts = FTEImpacts(
@@ -336,11 +339,10 @@ def apply_progression_responses(
     response = response_df["total_response"].values
 
     # Apply the labour supply response to the simulation
-    # NOTE: Don't reset calculations as this breaks UC and other benefit calculations
-    # Instead, just update the employment income with the behavioral response
+    sim.reset_calculations()
     sim.set_input(input_variable, year, employment_income + response)
 
-    weight = sim.calculate("household_weight", year, map_to="person")
+    weight = sim.calculate("household_weight", year, map_to="person").values
 
     result = MicroDataFrame(df, weights=weight)
 
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/dynamics/progression.py b/policyengine_uk/dynamics/progression.py
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ def calculate_derivative(
         Array of marginal rates clipped between 0 and 1
     """
     # Get baseline values for input variable and identify adults
-    input_variable_values = sim.calculate(input_variable, year)
+    input_variable_values = sim.calculate(input_variable, year).copy()
     adult_index = sim.calculate("adult_index")
     entity_key = sim.tax_benefit_system.variables[input_variable].entity.key
 
@@ -67,6 +67,10 @@ def calculate_derivative(
         ~pd.Series(adult_index).isin(range(1, count_adults + 1))
     ] = np.nan
 
+    # Reset simulation to original state
+    sim.reset_calculations()
+    sim.set_input(input_variable, year, input_variable_values)
+
     # Clip to ensure rates are between 0 and 1 (0% to 100% retention)
     return rel_marginal_wages.clip(0, 1)
 
@@ -96,6 +100,9 @@ def calculate_relative_income_change(
     reformed_target_values = sim.calculate(
         target_variable, year, map_to="person"
     )
+    original_target_values = pd.Series(
+        original_target_values, index=reformed_target_values.index
+    )
 
     # Calculate relative change, handling division by zero
     rel_change = (
@@ -159,6 +166,7 @@ def calculate_derivative_change(
         count_adults=count_adults,
         delta=delta,
     )
+    original_deriv = pd.Series(original_deriv, index=reformed_deriv.index)
 
     # Calculate relative and absolute changes in marginal rates
     rel_change = reformed_deriv / original_deriv - 1
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt.py
@@ -4,67 +4,16 @@
 class is_benefit_cap_exempt(Variable):
     value_type = bool
     entity = BenUnit
-    label = "Whether exempt from the benefits cap"
+    label = (
+        "Whether exempt from the benefits cap because of health or disability"
+    )
     definition_period = YEAR
     reference = "https://www.gov.uk/benefit-cap/when-youre-not-affected"
 
     def formula(benunit, period, parameters):
-        # Check if anyone in benefit unit is over state pension age
-        person = benunit.members
-        over_pension_age = person("is_SP_age", period)
-        has_pensioner = benunit.any(over_pension_age)
-
-        # UC-specific exemptions
-        # Limited capability for work and work-related activity
-        has_lcwra = benunit.any(
-            person("uc_limited_capability_for_WRA", period)
-        )
-
-        # Carer element in UC indicates caring for someone with disability
-        gets_uc_carer_element = benunit("uc_carer_element", period) > 0
-
-        # Earnings exemption for UC (£846/month = £10,152/year)
-        # Note: Only check earned income, not UC amount itself to avoid circular dependency
-        uc_earned = benunit("uc_earned_income", period)
-        earnings_threshold = 10_152
-        meets_earnings_test = uc_earned >= earnings_threshold
-
-        # Disability and carer benefits that exempt from cap
-        QUAL_PERSONAL_BENEFITS = [
-            "attendance_allowance",
-            "carers_allowance",
-            "dla",  # Disability Living Allowance (includes components)
-            "pip_dl",  # PIP daily living component
-            "pip_m",  # PIP mobility component
-            "iidb",  # Industrial injuries disability benefit
-        ]
-
-        # ESA and Working Tax Credit
-        QUAL_BENUNIT_BENEFITS = [
-            "esa_income",  # Income-based ESA
-            "working_tax_credit",  # If getting WTC, likely working enough
-        ]
-
-        qualifying_personal_benefits = add(
-            benunit, period, QUAL_PERSONAL_BENEFITS
-        )
-        qualifying_benunit_benefits = add(
-            benunit, period, QUAL_BENUNIT_BENEFITS
-        )
-
-        # Check for Armed Forces Compensation Scheme payments
-        afcs = benunit("afcs", period) > 0
-
-        # ESA contribution-based with support component
-        esa_support_component = benunit("esa_contrib", period) > 0
-
-        return (
-            has_pensioner
-            | has_lcwra
-            | gets_uc_carer_element
-            | meets_earnings_test
-            | (qualifying_personal_benefits > 0)
-            | (qualifying_benunit_benefits > 0)
-            | afcs
-            | esa_support_component
+        exempt_health = benunit(
+            "is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability", period
         )
+        exempt_other = benunit("is_benefit_cap_exempt_other", period)
+        exempt_earnings = benunit("is_benefit_cap_exempt_earnings", period)
+        return exempt_health | exempt_earnings | exempt_other
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_earnings.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_earnings.py
@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+from policyengine_uk.model_api import *
+
+
+class is_benefit_cap_exempt_earnings(Variable):
+    value_type = bool
+    entity = BenUnit
+    label = "Whether exempt from the benefits cap for non-health/disability reasons"
+    definition_period = YEAR
+    reference = "https://www.gov.uk/benefit-cap/when-youre-not-affected"
+
+    def formula(benunit, period, parameters):
+        # Check if anyone in benefit unit is over state pension age
+        person = benunit.members
+        over_pension_age = person("is_SP_age", period)
+        has_pensioner = benunit.any(over_pension_age)
+
+        # UC-specific exemptions
+        # Limited capability for work and work-related activity
+        has_lcwra = benunit.any(
+            person("uc_limited_capability_for_WRA", period)
+        )
+
+        # Carer element in UC indicates caring for someone with disability
+        gets_uc_carer_element = benunit("uc_carer_element", period) > 0
+
+        # Earnings exemption for UC (£846/month = £10,152/year)
+        # Note: Only check earned income, not UC amount itself to avoid circular dependency
+        uc_earned = benunit.sum(
+            benunit.members("employment_income", period)
+            + benunit.members("self_employment_income", period)
+            - benunit.members("income_tax", period)
+            - benunit.members("national_insurance", period)
+        )
+        earnings_threshold = 10_152
+        meets_earnings_test = uc_earned >= earnings_threshold
+
+        # Disability and carer benefits that exempt from cap
+        QUAL_PERSONAL_BENEFITS = [
+            "attendance_allowance",
+            "carers_allowance",
+            "dla",  # Disability Living Allowance (includes components)
+            "pip_dl",  # PIP daily living component
+            "pip_m",  # PIP mobility component
+            "iidb",  # Industrial injuries disability benefit
+        ]
+
+        # ESA and Working Tax Credit
+        QUAL_BENUNIT_BENEFITS = [
+            "esa_income",  # Income-based ESA
+            "working_tax_credit",  # If getting WTC, likely working enough
+        ]
+
+        qualifying_personal_benefits = add(
+            benunit, period, QUAL_PERSONAL_BENEFITS
+        )
+        qualifying_benunit_benefits = add(
+            benunit, period, QUAL_BENUNIT_BENEFITS
+        )
+
+        # Check for Armed Forces Compensation Scheme payments
+        afcs = benunit("afcs", period) > 0
+
+        # ESA contribution-based with support component
+        esa_support_component = benunit("esa_contrib", period) > 0
+
+        return meets_earnings_test
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability.py
@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+from policyengine_uk.model_api import *
+
+
+class is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability(Variable):
+    value_type = bool
+    entity = BenUnit
+    label = (
+        "Whether exempt from the benefits cap because of health or disability"
+    )
+    definition_period = YEAR
+    reference = "https://www.gov.uk/benefit-cap/when-youre-not-affected"
+
+    def formula(benunit, period, parameters):
+        # Check if anyone in benefit unit is over state pension age
+        person = benunit.members
+        over_pension_age = person("is_SP_age", period)
+        has_pensioner = benunit.any(over_pension_age)
+
+        # UC-specific exemptions
+        # Limited capability for work and work-related activity
+        has_lcwra = benunit.any(
+            person("uc_limited_capability_for_WRA", period)
+        )
+
+        # Carer element in UC indicates caring for someone with disability
+        gets_uc_carer_element = benunit("uc_carer_element", period) > 0
+
+        # Earnings exemption for UC (£846/month = £10,152/year)
+        # Note: Only check earned income, not UC amount itself to avoid circular dependency
+        uc_earned = benunit.sum(
+            benunit.members("employment_income", period)
+            + benunit.members("self_employment_income", period)
+            - benunit.members("income_tax", period)
+            - benunit.members("national_insurance", period)
+        )
+        earnings_threshold = 10_152
+        meets_earnings_test = uc_earned >= earnings_threshold
+
+        # Disability and carer benefits that exempt from cap
+        QUAL_PERSONAL_BENEFITS = [
+            "attendance_allowance",
+            "carers_allowance",
+            "dla",  # Disability Living Allowance (includes components)
+            "pip_dl",  # PIP daily living component
+            "pip_m",  # PIP mobility component
+            "iidb",  # Industrial injuries disability benefit
+        ]
+
+        # ESA and Working Tax Credit
+        QUAL_BENUNIT_BENEFITS = [
+            "esa_income",  # Income-based ESA
+            "working_tax_credit",  # If getting WTC, likely working enough
+        ]
+
+        qualifying_personal_benefits = add(
+            benunit, period, QUAL_PERSONAL_BENEFITS
+        )
+        qualifying_benunit_benefits = add(
+            benunit, period, QUAL_BENUNIT_BENEFITS
+        )
+
+        # Check for Armed Forces Compensation Scheme payments
+        afcs = benunit("afcs", period) > 0
+
+        # ESA contribution-based with support component
+        esa_support_component = benunit("esa_contrib", period) > 0
+
+        return (
+            has_lcwra
+            | gets_uc_carer_element
+            | (qualifying_personal_benefits > 0)
+            | (qualifying_benunit_benefits > 0)
+            | afcs
+            | esa_support_component
+        )
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_other.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_other.py
@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+from policyengine_uk.model_api import *
+
+
+class is_benefit_cap_exempt_other(Variable):
+    value_type = bool
+    entity = BenUnit
+    label = "Whether exempt from the benefits cap for non-health/disability reasons"
+    definition_period = YEAR
+    reference = "https://www.gov.uk/benefit-cap/when-youre-not-affected"
+
+    def formula(benunit, period, parameters):
+        # Check if anyone in benefit unit is over state pension age
+        person = benunit.members
+        over_pension_age = person("is_SP_age", period)
+        has_pensioner = benunit.any(over_pension_age)
+
+        # UC-specific exemptions
+        # Limited capability for work and work-related activity
+        has_lcwra = benunit.any(
+            person("uc_limited_capability_for_WRA", period)
+        )
+
+        # Carer element in UC indicates caring for someone with disability
+        gets_uc_carer_element = benunit("uc_carer_element", period) > 0
+
+        # Earnings exemption for UC (£846/month = £10,152/year)
+        # Note: Only check earned income, not UC amount itself to avoid circular dependency
+        uc_earned = benunit.sum(
+            benunit.members("employment_income", period)
+            + benunit.members("self_employment_income", period)
+            - benunit.members("income_tax", period)
+            - benunit.members("national_insurance", period)
+        )
+        earnings_threshold = 10_152
+        meets_earnings_test = uc_earned >= earnings_threshold
+
+        # Disability and carer benefits that exempt from cap
+        QUAL_PERSONAL_BENEFITS = [
+            "attendance_allowance",
+            "carers_allowance",
+            "dla",  # Disability Living Allowance (includes components)
+            "pip_dl",  # PIP daily living component
+            "pip_m",  # PIP mobility component
+            "iidb",  # Industrial injuries disability benefit
+        ]
+
+        # ESA and Working Tax Credit
+        QUAL_BENUNIT_BENEFITS = [
+            "esa_income",  # Income-based ESA
+            "working_tax_credit",  # If getting WTC, likely working enough
+        ]
+
+        qualifying_personal_benefits = add(
+            benunit, period, QUAL_PERSONAL_BENEFITS
+        )
+        qualifying_benunit_benefits = add(
+            benunit, period, QUAL_BENUNIT_BENEFITS
+        )
+
+        # Check for Armed Forces Compensation Scheme payments
+        afcs = benunit("afcs", period) > 0
+
+        # ESA contribution-based with support component
+        esa_support_component = benunit("esa_contrib", period) > 0
+
+        return has_pensioner | afcs | esa_support_component
