Merge pull request #1145 from PolicyEngine/obr_param_correction

Update UK parameters with gov reports

Author: MaxGhenis

changelog_entry.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+- bump: patch
+  changes:
+    fixed:
+      - Update UK parameters.

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/childcare/cap.yaml

@@ -3,10 +3,12 @@ description: The childcare costs accounted under the childcare element of the Un
   2017-04-10: 646.35
   2023-04-01: 951
   2024-04-01: 1_014.63
+  2025-04-01: 1_031.88
 2:
   2017-04-10: 1_108.04
   2023-04-01: 1_630
   2024-04-01: 1_739.37
+  2025-04-01: 1_768.94
 metadata:
   period: month
   unit: currency-GBP
@@ -16,3 +18,5 @@ metadata:
       href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/22/2021-04-12
     - title: Costing Document - Spring Budget 2023
       href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1142824/Costing_Document_-_Spring_Budget_2023.pdf#page=9
+    - title: Guidance on Universal Credit childcare costs - 2025
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/universal-credit-childcare-costs

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/child_benefit/amount/additional.yaml

@@ -45,7 +45,11 @@ values:
     reference:
       - title: Benefits Uprating 2024/25 | Commons Library Briefing
         href: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9872/CBP-9872.pdf
-  2025-04-01: 17.24
+  2025-04-01: 
+    value: 17.25
+    reference:
+      - title: Benefits Uprating 2025/26 | Commons Library Briefing
+        href: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10105/CBP-10105.pdf
 metadata:
   label: Child Benefit (additional)
   name: CB_additional

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/child_benefit/amount/eldest.yaml

@@ -42,7 +42,11 @@ values:
     reference:
       - title: Benefits Uprating 2024/25 | Commons Library Briefing
         href: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9872/CBP-9872.pdf
-  2025-04-01: 26.04
+  2025-04-01: 
+    value: 26.05
+    reference:
+      - title: Benefits Uprating 2025/26 | Commons Library Briefing
+        href: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10105/CBP-10105.pdf
 metadata:
   label: Child Benefit (eldest)
   name: CB_eldest

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml

@@ -13,13 +13,19 @@ values:
     metadata:
       reference:
       - title: Costing Document - Spring Budget 2023 (page 25)
-        href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1142824/Costing_Document_-_Spring_Budget_2023.pdf#page=9
+        href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1142824/Costing_Document_-_Spring_Budget_2023.pdf#page=25
   2025-04-01:
     value: 0.5795
     metadata:
       reference:
       - title: Costing Document - Spring Budget 2023 (page 25)
-        href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1142824/Costing_Document_-_Spring_Budget_2023.pdf#page=9
+        href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1142824/Costing_Document_-_Spring_Budget_2023.pdf#page=25
+  2026-03-22:
+    value: 0.5295
+    metadata:
+      reference:
+      - title: Costing Document - Spring Budget 2025 (page 46)
+        href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67e562fc33afcd62e4ca4c9e/SS25_Published_Costing_Document.pdf#page=46
 metadata:
   unit: currency-GBP
   name: fuel_duty_rate

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/indices/private_rent_index.yaml

@@ -105,7 +105,10 @@ values:
   2023-07-01: 120.4
   2023-08-01: 121.1
   2023-09-01: 121.8
-  2023-10-01: 122.6
+  2023-10-01: 122.7
+  2023-11-01: 123.4
+  2023-12-01: 123.9
+  2024-01-01: 124.6
 metadata:
   label: Private rental prices index
   uprating: gov.obr.consumer_price_index

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml

@@ -1,7 +1,12 @@
 description: OBR forecast for CPI
 values:
   2005-01-01: 90
-  2014-01-01: 100
+  2009-01-01: 87.3
+  2010-01-01: 90.3
+  2011-01-01: 94.2
+  2012-01-01: 96.7
+  2013-01-01: 98.9
+  2014-01-01: 100.0
   2015-01-01: 100.1
   2016-01-01: 101.2
   2017-01-01: 104.1

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ofgem/energy_price_cap.yaml

@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ values:
   2023-04-01: 3_280
   2023-07-01: 2_362 # Forecast
   2023-10-01: 2_389
+  2025-04-01: 1_849
+  2025-07-01: 1_720
 metadata:
   unit: currency-GBP
   period: year
@@ -22,4 +24,5 @@ metadata:
       href: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/all-available-charts?keyword=price%20cap&sort=relevance
     - title: Cornwall Insight price cap forecasts
       href: https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/cornwall-insight-release-latest-price-cap-predictions/
-  
+    - title: Ofgem price cap forecasts - 2025
+      href: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/information-consumers/energy-advice-households/energy-price-cap

policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/universal_credit/childcare_element/uc_maximum_childcare_element_amount.yaml

@@ -3,14 +3,14 @@
   input:
     uc_childcare_element_eligible_children: 5
   output:
-    uc_maximum_childcare_element_amount: 1_739.37 * 12
+    uc_maximum_childcare_element_amount: 1_768.94 * 12
 
 - name: One child - lower amount
   period: 2025
   input:
     uc_childcare_element_eligible_children: 1
   output:
-    uc_maximum_childcare_element_amount: 1_014.63 * 12
+    uc_maximum_childcare_element_amount: 1_031.88 * 12
 
 - name: No children 
   period: 2025