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MaxGhenisMaxGhenis
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Merge pull request #1560 from PolicyEngine/codex/fix-1378
Add OBR forecast importer
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‎changelog.d/obr-forecast-importer.added.md‎

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Added an OBR detailed forecast table importer script for updating economic forecast values in `yoy_growth.yaml`.

‎policyengine_uk/tests/test_import_obr_forecasts.py‎

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from io import BytesIO
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from zipfile import ZipFile
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from policyengine_uk.utils.import_obr_forecasts import (
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build_efo_href,
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extract_annual_series_from_xlsx,
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infer_forecast_start_year,
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infer_release,
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update_yoy_growth_yaml,
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)
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def make_inline_cell(ref: str, value: str) -> str:
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return f'<c r="{ref}" t="inlineStr"><is><t>{value}</t></is></c>'
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def make_number_cell(ref: str, value: float) -> str:
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return f'<c r="{ref}"><v>{value}</v></c>'
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def make_sheet(rows: dict[int, list[str]]) -> bytes:
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row_xml = []
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for row_num in sorted(rows):
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row_xml.append(f'<row r="{row_num}">{"".join(rows[row_num])}</row>')
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xml = (
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'<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?>'
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'<worksheet xmlns="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/spreadsheetml/2006/main">'
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f"<sheetData>{''.join(row_xml)}</sheetData>"
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"</worksheet>"
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)
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return xml.encode()
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def make_test_xlsx() -> bytes:
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workbook_xml = """<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?>
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<workbook xmlns="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/spreadsheetml/2006/main"
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xmlns:r="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/relationships">
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<sheets>
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<sheet name="1.6" sheetId="1" r:id="rId1"/>
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<sheet name="1.7" sheetId="2" r:id="rId2"/>
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<sheet name="1.16" sheetId="3" r:id="rId3"/>
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</sheets>
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</workbook>
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"""
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rels_xml = """<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?>
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<Relationships xmlns="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/package/2006/relationships">
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<Relationship Id="rId1" Type="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/relationships/worksheet" Target="worksheets/sheet1.xml"/>
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<Relationship Id="rId2" Type="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/relationships/worksheet" Target="worksheets/sheet2.xml"/>
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<Relationship Id="rId3" Type="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/relationships/worksheet" Target="worksheets/sheet3.xml"/>
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</Relationships>
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"""
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sheet_16 = make_sheet(
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{
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3: [make_inline_cell("Q3", "Average weekly earnings growth (per cent)")],
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97: [
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make_inline_cell("B97", "2025"),
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make_number_cell("Q97", 5.17),
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],
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98: [
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make_inline_cell("B98", "2026"),
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make_number_cell("Q98", 3.33),
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],
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}
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)
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sheet_17 = make_sheet(
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{
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3: [
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make_inline_cell("C3", "RPI"),
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make_inline_cell("E3", "CPI"),
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make_inline_cell("F3", "CPIH"),
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make_inline_cell(
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"H3",
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"Mortgage interest payments on dwellings (per cent change on a year earlier)",
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),
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make_inline_cell(
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"I3",
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"Actual rents for housing (per cent change on a year earlier)",
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),
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],
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98: [
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make_inline_cell("B98", "2025"),
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make_number_cell("C98", 4.33),
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make_number_cell("E98", 3.45),
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make_number_cell("F98", 3.88),
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make_number_cell("H98", 9.52),
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make_number_cell("I98", 5.42),
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],
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99: [
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make_inline_cell("B99", "2026"),
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make_number_cell("C99", 3.71),
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make_number_cell("E99", 2.48),
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make_number_cell("F99", 2.55),
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make_number_cell("H99", 7.97),
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make_number_cell("I99", 3.34),
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],
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}
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)
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sheet_116 = make_sheet(
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{
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3: [
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make_inline_cell(
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"D3",
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"House price index (per cent change on a year earlier)",
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)
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],
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97: [
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make_inline_cell("B97", "2025"),
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make_number_cell("D97", 2.80),
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],
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98: [
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make_inline_cell("B98", "2026"),
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make_number_cell("D98", 2.40),
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],
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}
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)
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buffer = BytesIO()
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with ZipFile(buffer, "w") as archive:
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archive.writestr("xl/workbook.xml", workbook_xml)
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archive.writestr("xl/_rels/workbook.xml.rels", rels_xml)
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archive.writestr("xl/worksheets/sheet1.xml", sheet_16)
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archive.writestr("xl/worksheets/sheet2.xml", sheet_17)
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archive.writestr("xl/worksheets/sheet3.xml", sheet_116)
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return buffer.getvalue()
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def test_extract_annual_series_from_xlsx():
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series = extract_annual_series_from_xlsx(make_test_xlsx())
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assert series["average_earnings"] == {2025: 0.0517, 2026: 0.0333}
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assert series["rpi"] == {2025: 0.0433, 2026: 0.0371}
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assert series["consumer_price_index"] == {2025: 0.0345, 2026: 0.0248}
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assert series["cpih"] == {2025: 0.0388, 2026: 0.0255}
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assert series["mortgage_interest"] == {2025: 0.0952, 2026: 0.0797}
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assert series["rent"] == {2025: 0.0542, 2026: 0.0334}
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assert series["house_prices"] == {2025: 0.028, 2026: 0.024}
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def test_release_inference_helpers():
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assert infer_release("Economy_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx") == (
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"November",
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2025,
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)
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assert infer_forecast_start_year("March", 2026) == 2025
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assert build_efo_href("March", 2026) == (
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"https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/"
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)
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def test_update_yoy_growth_yaml_updates_forecast_window_only(tmp_path):
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yaml_path = tmp_path / "yoy_growth.yaml"
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yaml_path.write_text("""obr:
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rpi:
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values:
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2024-01-01: 0.0300
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2031-01-01: 0.0230
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
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href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
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average_earnings:
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values:
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2024-01-01: 0.0400
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2031-01-01: 0.0383
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: Old
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href: https://example.com/old
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consumer_price_index:
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values:
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2024-01-01: 0.0200
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2031-01-01: 0.0200
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: Old
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href: https://example.com/old
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cpih:
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values:
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2024-01-01: 0.0200
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2031-01-01: 0.0230
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: Old
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href: https://example.com/old
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house_prices:
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values:
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2024-01-01: 0.0100
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2031-01-01: 0.0200
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: Old
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href: https://example.com/old
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mortgage_interest:
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values:
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2024-01-01: 0.1000
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2031-01-01: 0.0300
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: Old
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href: https://example.com/old
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rent:
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values:
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2024-01-01: 0.0500
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2031-01-01: 0.0200
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: Old
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href: https://example.com/old
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""")
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update_yoy_growth_yaml(
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yaml_path=yaml_path,
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series_values=extract_annual_series_from_xlsx(make_test_xlsx()),
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month="March",
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year=2026,
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forecast_start_year=2025,
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forecast_years=2,
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)
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content = yaml_path.read_text()
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assert "2024-01-01: 0.0300" in content
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assert "2025-01-01: 0.0433" in content
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assert "2026-01-01: 0.0371" in content
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assert "2031-01-01: 0.0230" in content
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assert "2025-01-01: 0.0280" in content
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assert "2026-01-01: 0.0240" in content
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assert (
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"OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.16)" in content
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)
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assert "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/" in content
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def test_update_yoy_growth_yaml_keeps_existing_values_when_obr_has_blank_years(
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tmp_path,
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):
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yaml_path = tmp_path / "yoy_growth.yaml"
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yaml_path.write_text("""obr:
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mortgage_interest:
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values:
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2027-01-01: 0.0553
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
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href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
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rpi:
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values:
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2027-01-01: 0.0000
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
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href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
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average_earnings:
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values:
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2027-01-01: 0.0000
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.6)
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href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
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consumer_price_index:
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values:
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2027-01-01: 0.0000
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
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href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
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cpih:
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values:
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2027-01-01: 0.0000
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
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href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
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house_prices:
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values:
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2027-01-01: 0.0000
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.16)
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href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
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rent:
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values:
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2025-01-01: 0.0000
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2026-01-01: 0.0000
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2027-01-01: 0.0000
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metadata:
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reference:
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- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
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href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
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""")
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update_yoy_growth_yaml(
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yaml_path=yaml_path,
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series_values=extract_annual_series_from_xlsx(make_test_xlsx()),
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month="March",
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year=2026,
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forecast_start_year=2025,
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forecast_years=3,
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)
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content = yaml_path.read_text()
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assert "2025-01-01: 0.0952" in content
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assert "2026-01-01: 0.0797" in content
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assert "2027-01-01: 0.0553" in content

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