From 30f368ed0d4bedf6baf5c9585b1cf59526955956 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2025 12:49:05 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 1/6] edit per capita --- .../parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml | 16 ++++++++-------- 1 file changed, 8 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml index b5cb424ee..b9b06c2c0 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml @@ -1,12 +1,12 @@ -description: OBR forecast for council tax. +description: OBR forecast for council tax per capita (millions of pounds). values: - 2023-01-01: 44.5 - 2024-01-01: 47.7 - 2025-01-01: 50.2 - 2026-01-01: 52.8 - 2027-01-01: 55.6 - 2028-01-01: 58.5 - 2029-01-01: 61.5 + 2023-01-01: 44.5/68500000 + 2024-01-01: 47.7/69200000 + 2025-01-01: 50.2/69900000 + 2026-01-01: 52.8/70400000 + 2027-01-01: 55.6/70900000 + 2028-01-01: 58.5/71200000 + 2029-01-01: 61.5/71500000 metadata: label: Council tax uprating reference: From 7b72c5710a37daf0744a3b1cfa6072c725b14f48 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2025 12:52:49 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 2/6] edit numbers --- .../parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml | 18 +++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 9 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml index b9b06c2c0..275a02e06 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml @@ -1,15 +1,15 @@ -description: OBR forecast for council tax per capita (millions of pounds). +description: OBR forecast for council tax per capita. values: - 2023-01-01: 44.5/68500000 - 2024-01-01: 47.7/69200000 - 2025-01-01: 50.2/69900000 - 2026-01-01: 52.8/70400000 - 2027-01-01: 55.6/70900000 - 2028-01-01: 58.5/71200000 - 2029-01-01: 61.5/71500000 + 2023-01-01: 649.6 + 2024-01-01: 689.1 + 2025-01-01: 718.3 + 2026-01-01: 750.0 + 2027-01-01: 784.2 + 2028-01-01: 821.8 + 2029-01-01: 860.1 metadata: label: Council tax uprating reference: - title: OBR March 2025 EFO href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/ - # Table A.5: Current receipt \ No newline at end of file + # Table A.5: Current receipts \ No newline at end of file From 5d9abe5c57e0520409da58cdfc663d9379a0fa87 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2025 14:05:24 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 3/6] edit per hh --- changelog_entry.yaml | 5 +- .../parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml | 19 +++---- .../parameters/gov/ons/household.yaml | 51 +++++++++++++++++++ 3 files changed, 65 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) create mode 100644 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ons/household.yaml diff --git a/changelog_entry.yaml b/changelog_entry.yaml index 97d1e0a60..f7ef22038 100644 --- a/changelog_entry.yaml +++ b/changelog_entry.yaml @@ -1,4 +1,7 @@ - bump: minor changes: added: - - Council tax projection parameters from OBR data. \ No newline at end of file + - ONS household population data from 2001-2043. + - Council tax per household projections from OBR data. + changed: + - Updated employer National Insurance contribution rate to 15% from April 6, 2025. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml index b9b06c2c0..21fc0677e 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml @@ -1,15 +1,16 @@ -description: OBR forecast for council tax per capita (millions of pounds). +description: OBR forecast for council tax per household. values: - 2023-01-01: 44.5/68500000 - 2024-01-01: 47.7/69200000 - 2025-01-01: 50.2/69900000 - 2026-01-01: 52.8/70400000 - 2027-01-01: 55.6/70900000 - 2028-01-01: 58.5/71200000 - 2029-01-01: 61.5/71500000 + 2023-01-01: 1_851.4 + 2024-01-01: 1_970.1 + 2025-01-01: 2_060.1 + 2026-01-01: 2_152.7 + 2027-01-01: 2_252.9 + 2028-01-01: 2_354.3 + 2029-01-01: 2_460.4 metadata: label: Council tax uprating reference: - title: OBR March 2025 EFO href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/ - # Table A.5: Current receipt \ No newline at end of file + # Table A.5: Current receipts + # Household population data from: gov.ons.household \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ons/household.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ons/household.yaml new file mode 100644 index 000000000..dd7a1f607 --- /dev/null +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ons/household.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +description: Number of households in the UK. +values: + 2001-01-01: 20_451_000 + 2002-01-01: 20_553_000 + 2003-01-01: 20_651_000 + 2004-01-01: 20_752_000 + 2005-01-01: 20_926_000 + 2006-01-01: 21_072_000 + 2007-01-01: 21_223_000 + 2008-01-01: 21_400_000 + 2009-01-01: 21_562_000 + 2010-01-01: 21_743_000 + 2011-01-01: 21_976_000 + 2012-01-01: 22_130_000 + 2013-01-01: 22_291_000 + 2014-01-01: 22_488_000 + 2015-01-01: 22_681_000 + 2016-01-01: 22_884_000 + 2017-01-01: 23_047_000 + 2018-01-01: 23_204_000 + # Projections: + 2019-01-01: 23_385_000 + 2020-01-01: 23_543_000 + 2021-01-01: 23_689_000 + 2022-01-01: 23_868_000 + 2023-01-01: 24_041_000 + 2024-01-01: 24_209_000 + 2025-01-01: 24_367_000 + 2026-01-01: 24_525_000 + 2027-01-01: 24_686_000 + 2028-01-01: 24_844_000 + 2029-01-01: 24_998_000 + 2030-01-01: 25_147_000 + 2031-01-01: 25_299_000 + 2032-01-01: 25_451_000 + 2033-01-01: 25_601_000 + 2034-01-01: 25_746_000 + 2035-01-01: 25_889_000 + 2036-01-01: 26_034_000 + 2037-01-01: 26_175_000 + 2038-01-01: 26_313_000 + 2039-01-01: 26_444_000 + 2040-01-01: 26_573_000 + 2041-01-01: 26_705_000 + 2042-01-01: 26_834_000 + 2043-01-01: 26_953_000 +metadata: + unit: household + reference: + - title: National population projections (2018-based) | ONS | Figure 1 + href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/householdprojectionsforengland/2018based \ No newline at end of file From c138ccca91bf983998214519068670b2ef4ce308 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2025 14:07:07 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 4/6] edit per hhs --- .../parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml | 19 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 10 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml index b9b06c2c0..84ec39c52 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml @@ -1,15 +1,16 @@ -description: OBR forecast for council tax per capita (millions of pounds). +description: OBR forecast for council tax per household. values: - 2023-01-01: 44.5/68500000 - 2024-01-01: 47.7/69200000 - 2025-01-01: 50.2/69900000 - 2026-01-01: 52.8/70400000 - 2027-01-01: 55.6/70900000 - 2028-01-01: 58.5/71200000 - 2029-01-01: 61.5/71500000 + 2023-01-01: 1851.4 + 2024-01-01: 1970.1 + 2025-01-01: 2060.1 + 2026-01-01: 2152.7 + 2027-01-01: 2252.9 + 2028-01-01: 2354.3 + 2029-01-01: 2460.4 metadata: label: Council tax uprating reference: - title: OBR March 2025 EFO href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/ - # Table A.5: Current receipt \ No newline at end of file + # Table A.5: Current receipts + # Household population data from: gov.ons.household \ No newline at end of file From 8e5a2c7b1f09b1f991006605930d346baf3a77f9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2025 14:09:11 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 5/6] edit numbers --- .../parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml | 14 +++++++------- 1 file changed, 7 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml index 84ec39c52..21fc0677e 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml @@ -1,12 +1,12 @@ description: OBR forecast for council tax per household. values: - 2023-01-01: 1851.4 - 2024-01-01: 1970.1 - 2025-01-01: 2060.1 - 2026-01-01: 2152.7 - 2027-01-01: 2252.9 - 2028-01-01: 2354.3 - 2029-01-01: 2460.4 + 2023-01-01: 1_851.4 + 2024-01-01: 1_970.1 + 2025-01-01: 2_060.1 + 2026-01-01: 2_152.7 + 2027-01-01: 2_252.9 + 2028-01-01: 2_354.3 + 2029-01-01: 2_460.4 metadata: label: Council tax uprating reference: From a548769d91d708da55ae09fc7294aa0f65a4c803 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2025 14:26:13 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 6/6] add comments --- .../parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml | 20 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 11 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml index 21fc0677e..996f61e67 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml @@ -1,16 +1,18 @@ description: OBR forecast for council tax per household. values: - 2023-01-01: 1_851.4 - 2024-01-01: 1_970.1 - 2025-01-01: 2_060.1 - 2026-01-01: 2_152.7 - 2027-01-01: 2_252.9 - 2028-01-01: 2_354.3 - 2029-01-01: 2_460.4 + 2023-01-01: 1_851.4 # 44.5bn / 24.041m households = £1,851 per household + 2024-01-01: 1_970.1 # 47.7bn / 24.209m households = £1,970 per household + 2025-01-01: 2_060.1 # 50.2bn / 24.367m households = £2,060 per household + 2026-01-01: 2_152.7 # 52.8bn / 24.525m households = £2,153 per household + 2027-01-01: 2_252.9 # 55.6bn / 24.686m households = £2,253 per household + 2028-01-01: 2_354.3 # 58.5bn / 24.844m households = £2,354 per household + 2029-01-01: 2_460.4 # 61.5bn / 24.998m households = £2,460 per household metadata: label: Council tax uprating reference: - title: OBR March 2025 EFO href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/ - # Table A.5: Current receipts - # Household population data from: gov.ons.household \ No newline at end of file + # Calculations based on: + # - Council tax receipts from OBR March 2025 EFO, Table A.5: Current receipts (£bn) + # - Household population data from ons.household.yaml + # - Per household = Total receipts (£bn) / Number of households (millions) × 1000 \ No newline at end of file