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Document State Pension model + residual aggregate gap (#1632)#1717

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Document State Pension model + residual aggregate gap (#1632)#1717
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Summary

  • State pension undershoot: -£12bn vs OBR, ASP/Protected Payment under-captured #1632 reported a -£12bn State Pension aggregate gap against OBR, with two diagnoses: (1) new_state_pension returned the flat max for every NEW-type retiree, (2) Protected Payment was only computed for BASIC-type recipients.
  • Both have since been fixed on the formula side in PR #1634:
    • new_state_pension now pro-rates against state_pension_reported,
    • additional_state_pension extends Protected Payment to NEW-type retirees too.
  • This PR persists the diagnosis and the post-Pro-rate new_state_pension by reported amount #1634 state of the model in a new docs page at docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/state-pension.md:
    • the three-variable composition (basic_state_pension + new_state_pension + additional_state_pension) and the BASIC / NEW classification settled by PR Fix state_pension_type classifying all pensioners as BASIC #1618,
    • triple-lock uprating with its active / earnings / inflation flags,
    • the residual ~£12bn gap, now narrowed to a data-side ASP under-imputation for BASIC-type retirees who reported exactly the max basic rate — a policyengine-uk-data follow-up rather than a formula gap,
    • references (Pensions Act 2014, SSCBA 1992 Part 2, OBR EFO, HoC Library triple-lock briefing).
  • Pure documentation; no model behaviour change.

Test plan

  • Markdown lints cleanly (tables, admonitions, links).
  • Docs build job picks up the new page under programs/gov/dwp/.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

#1632 reported a -£12 bn State Pension aggregate gap against OBR with
two diagnosed causes: (1) flat-max in new_state_pension regardless of
NI record, (2) Protected Payment missing for NEW-type retirees.

Both have since been fixed on the formula side in PR #1634:

- new_state_pension now pro-rates against state_pension_reported,
- additional_state_pension extends Protected Payment to NEW-type
  recipients too.

This PR persists the diagnosis and the post-#1634 state in a docs page
under programs/gov/dwp/state-pension.md, covering:

- the three-variable composition (BSP + NSP + ASP) and the
  state_pension_type classification fix from #1618,
- triple-lock uprating with its active/earnings/inflation flags,
- the residual ~£12 bn gap, now narrowed to data-side ASP
  under-imputation in policyengine-uk-data (rather than formula
  issues) for BASIC-type retirees reporting exactly the max basic
  rate,
- references to the Pensions Act 2014, SSCBA 1992 Part 2, OBR EFO,
  and the HoC Library triple-lock briefing.
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