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Add non-UK household benefit receipt planning doc (#842)#1720

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Add non-UK household benefit receipt planning doc (#842)#1720
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vahid-ahmadi/issue-842-non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan

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Summary

  • Account for non-UK household benefit receipt #842 flagged that PolicyEngine UK's calibration implicitly assumes all DWP/HMRC outturn lands on FRS households, but it doesn't — exported State Pension, care-home residents, EU-treaty Child Benefit residue, and administrative leakage all sit outside the FRS sampling frame, inflating PolicyEngine's per-household estimates.
  • Persist the plan in-repo at docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md.
  • Three-phase route:
    • Phase 1 — quantify the gap per programme using DWP "Benefits paid outside the UK" statistics, the F&E in the Benefit System release, and Stat-Xplore caseload breakdowns. Per-programme table sketched.
    • Phase 2 — subtract the out-of-scope share from policyengine-uk-data calibration targets via a new private_household_share field on programs.yaml rows (default 1.0).
    • Phase 3 (optional) — keep an additive correction for headline fiscal aggregates rather than synthesising overseas / institutional households, since synthesis would need strong unverifiable assumptions.
  • Pure documentation; the implementation lives mostly in policyengine-uk-data — only the private_household_share field would be added to this repo.

Test plan

  • Markdown lints cleanly (table, links).
  • Docs build job picks up the new page under assumptions/.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

#842 flagged that calibrating to DWP/HMRC outturn implicitly assumes
all benefit expenditure lands on FRS households — it doesn't, because
exported State Pension, care-home residents, EU-treaty Child Benefit
residue, and admin leakage end up overweighting FRS-household
aggregates.

Persist the plan in-repo. The page proposes:

- Phase 1: quantify the gap per programme using DWP "Benefits paid
  outside the UK" statistics, the F&E in the Benefit System release,
  and Stat-Xplore residence/tenure breakdowns;
- Phase 2: subtract the out-of-scope share from policyengine-uk-data
  calibration targets via a new private_household_share field on
  programs.yaml rows;
- Phase 3 (optional): keep an additive correction for headline-fiscal
  aggregates rather than synthesising overseas / institutional
  households (which would need strong unverifiable assumptions).

Pure docs; the implementation lives mostly in policyengine-uk-data.
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