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Add 2025 ACA and Medicaid target coverage
1 parent ac4db66 commit 030f761

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‎.gitignore‎

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## old (not clean) targets
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!healthcare_spending.csv
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!medicaid_enrollment_2024.csv
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!medicaid_enrollment_2025.csv
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!eitc.csv
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!spm_threshold_agi.csv
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!population_by_state.csv
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!aca_spending_and_enrollment_2024.csv
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!aca_spending_and_enrollment_2025.csv
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!real_estate_taxes_by_state_acs.csv
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!snap_state.csv
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!age_state.csv
@@ -29,6 +31,7 @@ docs/.ipynb_checkpoints/
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## ACA PTC state-level uprating factors
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!policyengine_us_data/storage/aca_ptc_multipliers_2022_2024.csv
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!policyengine_us_data/storage/aca_ptc_multipliers_2022_2025.csv
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## Calibration run outputs (weights, diagnostics, packages, config)
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policyengine_us_data/storage/calibration/

‎changelog.d/ecps-2025-target-coverage.changed.md‎

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Add 2025 ACA and Medicaid calibration target artifacts, plus year-aware ACA target loading and state uprating factors for 2025 builds.

‎policyengine_us_data/calibration/unified_matrix_builder.py‎

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from policyengine_us_data.db.create_database_tables import create_or_replace_views
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from policyengine_us_data.storage import STORAGE_FOLDER
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from policyengine_us_data.utils.census import STATE_NAME_TO_FIPS
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from policyengine_us_data.utils.census import STATE_ABBREV_TO_FIPS, STATE_NAME_TO_FIPS
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from policyengine_us_data.calibration.calibration_utils import (
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get_calculated_variables,
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apply_op,
@@ -1689,11 +1689,22 @@ def _get_uprating_info(
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def _load_aca_ptc_factors(
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self,
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) -> Dict[int, Dict[str, float]]:
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csv_path = STORAGE_FOLDER / "aca_ptc_multipliers_2022_2024.csv"
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csv_candidates = {}
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for path in STORAGE_FOLDER.glob("aca_ptc_multipliers_2022_*.csv"):
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suffix = path.stem.removeprefix("aca_ptc_multipliers_2022_")
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if suffix.isdigit():
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csv_candidates[int(suffix)] = path
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eligible_years = [
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year for year in csv_candidates if year <= self.time_period
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] or sorted(csv_candidates)
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csv_path = csv_candidates[max(eligible_years)]
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df = pd.read_csv(csv_path)
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result = {}
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for _, row in df.iterrows():
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fips_str = STATE_NAME_TO_FIPS.get(row["state"])
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if fips_str is None:
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fips_str = STATE_ABBREV_TO_FIPS.get(row["state"])
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if fips_str is None:
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continue
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fips_int = int(fips_str)

‎policyengine_us_data/storage/README.md‎

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• Date: 2024
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• Location: https://www.cms.gov/files/document/health-insurance-exchanges-2024-open-enrollment-report-final.pdf
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- **aca_spending_and_enrollment_2025.csv**
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• Source: CMS “Effectuated Enrollment: Early 2025 Snapshot and Full Year 2024 Average”, Table 2 and Table 3
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• Date: March 15, 2025 snapshot
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• Location: https://www.cms.gov/files/document/effectuated-enrollment-early-snapshot-2025-and-full-year-2024-average.pdf
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• Notes: `enrollment` is APTC enrollment by state; `spending` is monthly APTC enrollment multiplied by average monthly APTC for APTC recipients
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- **medicaid_enrollment_2024.csv**
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• Source: MACPAC Enrollment Tables, FFY 2024
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• Date: 2024
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• Location: https://www.medicaid.gov/resources-for-states/downloads/eligib-oper-and-enrol-snap-december2024.pdf#page=26
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- **medicaid_enrollment_2025.csv**
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• Source: Medicaid.gov performance indicator dataset, latest final-report month available in the March 2026 release
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• Date: November 2025 final reports
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• Location: https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/State-Medicaid-and-CHIP-Applications-Eligibility-Deter/pi-dataset-march-2026release
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- **district_mapping.csv**
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• Source: created by the script `policyengine_us/storage/calibration_targets/make_district_mapping.py`
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• Notes: this script is not part of `make data` because of the length of time it takes to run and the

‎policyengine_us_data/storage/aca_ptc_multipliers_2022_2025.csv‎

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state,enroll_2022,aptc_2022,enroll_2025,aptc_2025,vol_mult,val_mult
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AK,18576,695.4,24249,1008.66,1.3053940568475453,1.450474547023296
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AL,200963,713.19,446956,611.48,2.224071097664744,0.8573872320139093
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AR,73925,451.83,143734,508.4,1.9443219479201894,1.1252019564880598
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AZ,159471,448.69,370817,458.26,2.32529425412771,1.021328757048296
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CA,1586076,476.02,1751717,559.49,1.1044344659398415,1.1753497752195285
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CO,132564,373.95,202916,465.8,1.5307021514136567,1.2456210723358738
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CT,78832,657.22,128440,783.8,1.629287598944591,1.1925991296673868
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DC,2232,343.0,3458,489.13,1.549283154121864,1.4260349854227405
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DE,27345,607.2,45885,588.14,1.678003291278113,0.9686100131752304
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FL,2544476,552.78,4472539,591.39,1.7577446201103881,1.069846955389124
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GA,612951,466.22,1408787,573.3,2.2983680587844706,1.229676976534683
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HI,17724,576.23,19676,577.9,1.1101331527871812,1.0028981483088348
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IA,62355,598.02,117890,471.05,1.8906262529067437,0.787682686197786
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ID,57637,453.64,100605,406.51,1.7454933462879747,0.8961070452341063
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IL,266563,508.89,395850,542.1,1.485014799503307,1.0652596828391205
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IN,121953,459.49,289683,427.8,2.375365919657573,0.9310322313869726
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KS,93793,531.71,182303,579.53,1.9436738349343767,1.0899362434409734
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KY,56614,484.54,77424,526.97,1.367576924435652,1.0875675898790607
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LA,89229,658.46,276294,593.53,3.0964596711831356,0.9013911247456184
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MA,179791,377.37,294241,409.73,1.6365724646951183,1.0857513845827702
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MD,134906,374.94,181274,405.13,1.3437059878730375,1.0805195497946338
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ME,52938,470.92,53808,607.03,1.016434319392497,1.2890299838613777
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MI,248623,392.06,470840,449.38,1.8937910008325858,1.1462021119216446
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MN,69218,342.85,91520,363.43,1.3221994278944784,1.0600262505468863
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MO,216351,548.21,383029,564.46,1.7704054984723898,1.029641925539483
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MS,129385,569.78,320193,575.98,2.474730455616957,1.0108813928182807
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MT,43431,501.35,67185,544.77,1.546936519997237,1.0866061633589308
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NC,608078,580.69,888059,573.88,1.460435996697792,0.9882725722846957
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ND,26577,452.14,38239,485.74,1.4388004665688376,1.0743132658026275
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NE,90106,614.95,127135,602.33,1.4109493263489667,0.979478006341979
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NH,35528,336.67,47900,340.5,1.3482323800945732,1.0113761249888615
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NJ,272035,490.07,457128,546.69,1.6804014189350636,1.1155345154773808
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NM,27522,472.35,60742,591.28,2.2070343725019983,1.251783635016407
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NV,86938,434.76,94596,464.67,1.088085762267363,1.068796577422026
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NY,118805,361.6,118526,433.79,0.9976516139893102,1.1996404867256636
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OH,196185,438.57,513517,500.44,2.6175140810969237,1.1410721207560937
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OK,173176,558.99,289763,559.31,1.673228391924978,1.0005724610458147
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OR,109031,491.48,106167,531.17,0.9737322412891747,1.0807560836656627
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PA,325333,499.67,421996,538.87,1.2971201814755957,1.0784517781735945
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RI,27386,401.71,36438,471.54,1.3305338494121084,1.1738318687610467
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SC,271359,513.06,587715,523.46,2.165820923573569,1.0202705336607807
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SD,38076,641.7,50340,599.92,1.3220926567916798,0.9348916939379771
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TN,238632,544.86,592946,592.36,2.4847715310603773,1.0871783577432734
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TX,1656384,503.86,3713574,540.82,2.2419764982033152,1.0733537093637122
46+
UT,235188,370.03,395357,462.92,1.6810253924519958,1.251033699970273
47+
VA,264517,508.29,326268,405.46,1.23344813376834,0.7976942296720375
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VT,22625,566.36,30280,946.45,1.338342541436464,1.6711102478988629
49+
WA,147712,420.54,226813,445.26,1.5355082863951472,1.0587815665572835
50+
WI,181848,531.3,271589,585.19,1.4934945668910298,1.1014304536043669
51+
WV,20466,1007.49,63036,1103.76,3.0800351802990327,1.0955542983056903
52+
WY,32278,813.47,43457,915.98,1.3463349649916352,1.1260157104748791

‎policyengine_us_data/storage/calibration_targets/aca_spending_and_enrollment_2025.csv‎

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state,enrollment,spending
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AK,24249,24458996.34
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AL,446956,273304654.88
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AR,143734,73074365.6
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AZ,370817,169930598.42
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CA,1751717,980068144.33
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CO,202916,94518272.8
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CT,128440,100671272.0
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DC,3458,1691411.54
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DE,45885,26986803.9
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FL,4472539,2645014839.21
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GA,1408787,807657587.1
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HI,19676,11370760.4
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IA,117890,55532084.5
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ID,100605,40896938.55
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IL,395850,214590285.0
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IN,289683,123926387.4
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KS,182303,105650057.59
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KY,77424,40800125.28
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LA,276294,163988777.82
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MA,294241,120559364.93
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MD,181274,73439535.62
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ME,53808,32663070.24
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MI,470840,211586079.2
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MN,91520,33261113.6
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MO,383029,216204549.34
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MS,320193,184424764.14
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MT,67185,36600372.45
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NC,888059,509639298.92
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ND,38239,18574211.86
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NE,127135,76577224.55
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NH,47900,16309950.0
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NJ,457128,249907306.32
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NM,60742,35915529.76
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NV,94596,43955923.32
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NY,118526,51415393.54
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OH,513517,256984447.48
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OK,289763,162067343.53
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OR,106167,56392725.39
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PA,421996,227400984.52
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RI,36438,17181974.52
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SC,587715,307645293.9
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SD,50340,30199972.8
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TN,592946,351237492.56
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TX,3713574,2008375090.68
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UT,395357,183018662.44
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VA,326268,132288623.28
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VT,30280,28658506.0
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WA,226813,100990756.38
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WI,271589,158931166.91
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WV,63036,69576615.36
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WY,43457,39805742.86

‎policyengine_us_data/storage/calibration_targets/medicaid_enrollment_2025.csv‎

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state,enrollment
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AK,199460
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AL,752535
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AR,723536
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AZ,1579905
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CA,11554412
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CO,1046707
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CT,882013
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DC,242274
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DE,227234
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FL,3447907
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GA,1698374
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HI,364787
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IA,585282
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ID,293777
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IL,2719408
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IN,1431868
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KS,333620
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KY,1200890
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LA,1274536
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MA,1405793
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MD,1209670
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ME,314237
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MI,2131207
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MN,1158706
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MO,1133140
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MS,509631
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MT,192806
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NC,2527040
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ND,100854
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NE,299026
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NH,159398
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NJ,1514284
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NM,640061
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NV,679632
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NY,5894332
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OH,2508352
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OK,913130
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OR,1124039
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PA,2732233
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RI,263719
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SC,875777
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SD,122031
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TN,1233717
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TX,3776984
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UT,298758
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VA,1503054
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VT,146362
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WA,1722640
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WI,1030040
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WV,451904
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WY,54143

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