Add state income tax calibration targets from Census STC (#497)

Adds ETL pipeline for state-level individual income tax collections
from Census Bureau's Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections
(STC) using FY2023 data for all 50 states + DC ($531B total).

Recreated from PR #493 rebased onto main.

Closes #492

Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: MaxGhenis

Makefile

@@ -61,6 +61,7 @@ database:
 	python policyengine_us_data/db/etl_age.py
 	python policyengine_us_data/db/etl_medicaid.py
 	python policyengine_us_data/db/etl_snap.py
+	python policyengine_us_data/db/etl_state_income_tax.py
 	python policyengine_us_data/db/etl_irs_soi.py
 	python policyengine_us_data/db/validate_database.py
 

changelog_entry.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+- bump: minor
+  changes:
+    added:
+    - Add state income tax calibration targets from Census STC FY2023 data

policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/local_area_calibration/fit_calibration_weights.py

@@ -105,10 +105,11 @@
 targets_df, X_sparse, household_id_mapping = builder.build_matrix(
     sim,
     target_filter={
-        "stratum_group_ids": [4],
+        "stratum_group_ids": [4, 7],  # 4=SNAP households, 7=state income tax
         "variables": [
             "health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b",
             "snap",
+            "state_income_tax",  # Census STC state income tax collections
         ],
     },
 )

policyengine_us_data/db/DATABASE_GUIDE.md

@@ -30,8 +30,9 @@ make promote-database   # Copy DB + raw inputs to HuggingFace clone
 | 4 | `etl_age.py` | Census ACS 1-year | Age distribution: 18 bins x 488 geographies |
 | 5 | `etl_medicaid.py` | Census ACS + CMS | Medicaid enrollment (admin state-level, survey district-level) |
 | 6 | `etl_snap.py` | USDA FNS + Census ACS | SNAP participation (admin state-level, survey district-level) |
-| 7 | `etl_irs_soi.py` | IRS | Tax variables, EITC by child count, AGI brackets, conditional strata |
-| 8 | `validate_database.py` | No | Checks all target variables exist in policyengine-us |
+| 7 | `etl_state_income_tax.py` | No | State income tax collections (Census STC FY2023, hardcoded) |
+| 8 | `etl_irs_soi.py` | IRS | Tax variables, EITC by child count, AGI brackets, conditional strata |
+| 9 | `validate_database.py` | No | Checks all target variables exist in policyengine-us |
 
 ### Raw Input Caching
 
@@ -108,6 +109,7 @@ The `stratum_group_id` field categorizes strata:
 | 4 | SNAP | SNAP recipient strata |
 | 5 | Medicaid | Medicaid enrollment strata |
 | 6 | EITC | EITC recipients by qualifying children |
+| 7 | State Income Tax | State-level income tax collections (Census STC) |
 | 100-118 | IRS Conditional | Each IRS variable paired with conditional count constraints |
 
 ### Conditional Strata (IRS SOI)
@@ -216,6 +218,7 @@ SELECT
         WHEN 4 THEN 'SNAP'
         WHEN 5 THEN 'Medicaid'
         WHEN 6 THEN 'EITC'
+        WHEN 7 THEN 'State Income Tax'
     END AS group_name,
     COUNT(*) AS stratum_count
 FROM strata