Use APTC enrollment for ACA take-up rates

Author: daphnehanse11

policyengine_us_data/parameters/take_up/aca.yaml

@@ -6,13 +6,21 @@ metadata:
   reference:
     - title: KFF "A Closer Look at the Remaining Uninsured Population Eligible for Medicaid and CHIP"
       href: https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/state-indicator/distribution-of-eligibility-for-aca-coverage-among-the-remaining-uninsured/
-    - title: KFF State Health Facts, Open Enrollment Marketplace Plan Selections, 2014-2026
-      href: https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/state-indicator/open-enrollment-marketplace-plan-selections/
+    - title: "CMS Effectuated Enrollment: Early 2024 Snapshot and Full Year 2023 Average"
+      href: https://www.cms.gov/files/document/early-2024-and-full-year-2023-effectuated-enrollment-report.pdf
+    - title: CMS "2024 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files"
+      href: https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-reports/marketplace-products/2024-marketplace-open-enrollment-period-public-use-files
+    - title: "CMS Effectuated Enrollment: Early 2025 Snapshot and Full Year 2024 Average"
+      href: https://www.cms.gov/files/document/effectuated-enrollment-early-snapshot-2025-and-full-year-2024-average.pdf
+    - title: CMS "2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files"
+      href: https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-reports/marketplace-products/2026-marketplace-open-enrollment-period-public-use-files
 values:
   2018-01-01: 0.672
-  # Marketplace plan selections / (plan selections + 2023 tax-credit-eligible uninsured).
+  # APTC enrollment / (APTC enrollment + 2023 tax-credit-eligible uninsured).
   # KFF reports 8,163,000 uninsured people eligible for Marketplace tax credits in 2023.
-  2023-01-01: 0.667088
-  2024-01-01: 0.724308
-  2025-01-01: 0.748697
-  2026-01-01: 0.739150
+  # APTC enrollment: 14,793,073 (2023), 19,771,819 (2024), 21,822,894 (2025),
+  # and 20,035,756 (2026).
+  2023-01-01: 0.644408
+  2024-01-01: 0.707784
+  2025-01-01: 0.727772
+  2026-01-01: 0.710519

tests/unit/test_stochastic_variables.py

@@ -39,10 +39,10 @@ def test_aca_rate_loads(self):
 
     def test_aca_rate_uses_marketplace_enrollment_time_series(self):
         assert load_take_up_rate("aca", 2022) == 0.672
-        assert np.isclose(load_take_up_rate("aca", 2023), 0.667088)
-        assert np.isclose(load_take_up_rate("aca", 2024), 0.724308)
-        assert np.isclose(load_take_up_rate("aca", 2025), 0.748697)
-        assert np.isclose(load_take_up_rate("aca", 2026), 0.739150)
+        assert np.isclose(load_take_up_rate("aca", 2023), 0.644408)
+        assert np.isclose(load_take_up_rate("aca", 2024), 0.707784)
+        assert np.isclose(load_take_up_rate("aca", 2025), 0.727772)
+        assert np.isclose(load_take_up_rate("aca", 2026), 0.710519)
 
     def test_head_start_rate_loads(self):
         rate = load_take_up_rate("head_start", 2022)