Refresh ACA and Medicaid enrollment targets

* Refresh Medicaid enrollment targets

* Refresh ACA marketplace targets

* Add target refresh changelog

Author: MaxGhenis

changelog.d/870.added.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Add 2026 ACA Marketplace and Medicaid enrollment calibration targets.

policyengine_us_data/storage/calibration_targets/aca_spending_and_enrollment_2026.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+state,enrollment,spending
+AK,19249,18228803.00
+AL,415172,281486616.00
+AR,139372,108570788.00
+AZ,295299,163890945.00
+CA,1577627,913446033.00
+CO,191153,97679183.00
+CT,123873,117927096.00
+DC,3012,1445760.00
+DE,36026,25938720.00
+FL,4295772,3178871280.00
+GA,1180015,811850320.00
+HI,16702,9486736.00
+IA,93877,46844623.00
+ID,92090,37020180.00
+IL,382114,262894432.00
+IN,250156,120325036.00
+KS,170974,119168878.00
+KY,71435,45289790.00
+LA,270419,182262406.00
+MA,292196,108404716.00
+MD,172309,66166656.00
+ME,43597,33526093.00
+MI,402911,215960296.00
+MN,68982,28213638.00
+MO,316392,201858096.00
+MS,298865,214585070.00
+MT,56892,36581556.00
+NC,662864,437490240.00
+ND,32183,14868546.00
+NE,111189,74941386.00
+NH,36748,13890744.00
+NJ,418531,232703236.00
+NM,68362,45050558.00
+NV,85980,44365680.00
+NY,89718,37860996.00
+OH,387729,202782267.00
+OK,237649,148292976.00
+OR,71031,37291275.00
+PA,400008,246404928.00
+RI,35699,17528209.00
+SC,524034,303415686.00
+SD,42465,24120120.00
+TN,514288,397030336.00
+TX,3877775,2586475925.00
+UT,350154,174726846.00
+VA,288477,132987897.00
+VT,23336,22099192.00
+WA,187093,114500916.00
+WI,228117,155347677.00
+WV,49659,61775796.00
+WY,36186,40781622.00

policyengine_us_data/storage/calibration_targets/medicaid_enrollment_2026.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+state,enrollment
+AK,197303
+AL,741054
+AR,717460
+AZ,1550145
+CA,11317458
+CO,1048404
+CT,880077
+DC,221109
+DE,225267
+FL,3425630
+GA,1668068
+HI,362596
+IA,580005
+ID,290877
+IL,2672120
+IN,1335294
+KS,326481
+KY,1185030
+LA,1248524
+MA,1386431
+MD,1197502
+ME,313752
+MI,2029635
+MN,1135395
+MO,1114809
+MS,504317
+MT,189764
+NC,2512861
+ND,98270
+NE,294967
+NH,154244
+NJ,1478452
+NM,637738
+NV,680798
+NY,5817285
+OH,2456737
+OK,891840
+OR,1112951
+PA,2706010
+RI,264991
+SC,859665
+SD,122120
+TN,1221648
+TX,3688051
+UT,291325
+VA,1479460
+VT,144677
+WA,1721857
+WI,1019688
+WV,448685
+WY,53702

tests/unit/calibration/test_loss_targets.py

@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ def test_aca_targets_roll_forward_to_2025():
 
 def test_aca_targets_use_latest_available_year():
     _, data_year = _load_aca_spending_and_enrollment_targets(2026)
-    assert data_year == 2025
+    assert data_year == 2026
 
 
 def test_aca_targets_fall_back_to_earliest_available_year():
@@ -50,6 +50,14 @@ def test_aca_national_targets_annualize_2025_state_file():
     assert spending == pytest.approx(143_951_057_388.72)
 
 
+def test_aca_national_targets_annualize_2026_state_file():
+    spending, enrollment, data_year = _get_aca_national_targets(2026)
+
+    assert data_year == 2026
+    assert enrollment == 20_035_756
+    assert spending == pytest.approx(156_175_881_600.0)
+
+
 def test_medicaid_targets_roll_forward_to_2025():
     targets, data_year = _load_medicaid_enrollment_targets(2025)
 
@@ -58,6 +66,14 @@ def test_medicaid_targets_roll_forward_to_2025():
     assert int(targets["enrollment"].sum()) == 69_185_225
 
 
+def test_medicaid_targets_roll_forward_to_2026():
+    targets, data_year = _load_medicaid_enrollment_targets(2026)
+
+    assert data_year == 2026
+    assert len(targets) == 51
+    assert int(targets["enrollment"].sum()) == 68_022_529
+
+
 def test_medicaid_targets_fall_back_to_earliest_available_year():
     _, data_year = _load_medicaid_enrollment_targets(2023)
     assert data_year == 2024
@@ -71,6 +87,14 @@ def test_medicaid_national_targets_use_2025_values():
     assert spending == pytest.approx(1_000_645_800_000.0001)
 
 
+def test_medicaid_national_targets_use_2026_enrollment():
+    spending, enrollment, data_year = _get_medicaid_national_targets(2026)
+
+    assert data_year == 2026
+    assert enrollment == 68_022_529
+    assert spending == pytest.approx(1_000_645_800_000.0001)
+
+
 class _FakeArrayResult:
     def __init__(self, values):
         self.values = np.asarray(values, dtype=np.float32)