Use SSA actual SSI payments target

Author: MaxGhenis

policyengine_us_data/calibration/chunked_matrix_assembler.py

@@ -380,7 +380,9 @@ def run_single_chunk(self, chunk_id: int) -> ChunkResult:
                 continue
             try:
                 hh_vars[variable] = chunk_sim.calculate(
-                    variable, state.time_period, map_to="household"
+                    variable,
+                    state.time_period,
+                    map_to="household",
                 ).values.astype(np.float32)
             except Exception as exc:
                 logger.warning(
@@ -394,7 +396,9 @@ def run_single_chunk(self, chunk_id: int) -> ChunkResult:
                 continue
             try:
                 target_entity_vars[variable] = chunk_sim.calculate(
-                    variable, state.time_period, map_to=entity_key
+                    variable,
+                    state.time_period,
+                    map_to=entity_key,
                 ).values.astype(np.float32)
             except Exception as exc:
                 logger.warning(

policyengine_us_data/db/etl_national_targets.py

@@ -32,6 +32,7 @@
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGET_SOURCE,
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGET_YEAR,
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGETS_2024,
+    get_ssi_annual_payment_target,
 )
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.target_variables import (
     target_variable_components,
@@ -798,7 +799,13 @@ def extract_national_targets(year: int = DEFAULT_YEAR):
             source = "CBO Budget Projections"
             notes = f"CBO projection for {variable_name}"
             if variable_name == "ssi":
-                source = SSI_CBO_TARGET_SOURCE
+                ssi_target = get_ssi_annual_payment_target(time_period)
+                if ssi_target is None:
+                    source = SSI_CBO_TARGET_SOURCE
+                else:
+                    value = ssi_target["value"]
+                    source = ssi_target["source"]
+                    notes = ssi_target["notes"]
             cbo_targets.append(
                 {
                     "variable": variable_name,

policyengine_us_data/utils/loss.py

@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.soi import pe_to_soi, get_soi, get_tracked_soi_row
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.ssi_targets import (
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGETS_2024,
+    get_ssi_annual_payment_target,
 )
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.target_variables import (
     target_variable_components,
@@ -248,6 +249,11 @@ def _add_ssi_recipient_targets(loss_matrix, targets_array, sim, time_period):
 
 
 def _cbo_program_target_value(sim, variable_name: str, time_period):
+    if variable_name == "ssi":
+        ssi_target = get_ssi_annual_payment_target(time_period)
+        if ssi_target is not None:
+            return ssi_target["value"]
+
     param_name = CBO_PARAM_NAME_MAP.get(variable_name, variable_name)
     return sim.tax_benefit_system.parameters(time_period).calibration.gov.cbo._children[
         param_name
@@ -1339,7 +1345,11 @@ def build_loss_matrix(dataset: type, time_period):
 
     for variable_name in CBO_PROGRAMS:
         label = f"nation/cbo/{variable_name}"
-        loss_matrix[label] = sim.calculate(variable_name, map_to="household").values
+        loss_matrix[label] = sim.calculate(
+            variable_name,
+            time_period,
+            map_to="household",
+        ).values
         if any(loss_matrix[label].isna()):
             raise ValueError(f"Missing values for {label}")
         targets_array.append(_cbo_program_target_value(sim, variable_name, time_period))

policyengine_us_data/utils/ssi_targets.py

@@ -3,6 +3,39 @@
 SSI_CBO_TARGET_SOURCE = (
     "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51313-2026-02-ssi.xlsx"
 )
+SSI_ANNUAL_PAYMENT_TARGET_SOURCE = (
+    "https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_asr/2024/sect01.html"
+)
+SSI_OACT_PAYMENT_DATE_TARGET_SOURCE = (
+    "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/ssir/SSI25/IV_C_Payments.html"
+)
+SSI_OACT_CY2024_PAYMENT_DATE_ALL = 63_080_000_000
+SSI_OACT_FY2024_PAYMENT_DATE_ALL = 57_600_000_000
+SSI_ANNUAL_PAYMENT_TARGET_NOTES = (
+    "SSA SSI Annual Statistical Report, 2024, Table 2; Federal SSI total "
+    "annual payments for all recipients, excluding federally administered "
+    "state supplementation. ASR allocates payments to the month due, so this "
+    "target aligns with annual `ssi` over January-December benefit months. "
+    "Do not replace it with OACT payment-date accounting; OACT Table IV.C2 "
+    "reports FY2024 all Federal SSI payments of $57.600B because fiscal-year "
+    "payment-date totals can contain 11, 12, or 13 monthly payments. The "
+    "smaller gap between ASR CY2024 and OACT FY2024 is not a pure 12-vs-11 "
+    "month comparison: OACT Table IV.C1 reports CY2024 all Federal SSI "
+    "payments of $63.080B on a payment-date basis, $5.480B above OACT "
+    "FY2024, and OACT obligations are not reduced for certain recovered "
+    "overpayments remitted directly to Treasury that ASR nets out."
+)
+SSI_ANNUAL_PAYMENT_TARGETS = {
+    2024: {
+        "value": 59_665_127_000,
+        "source": SSI_ANNUAL_PAYMENT_TARGET_SOURCE,
+        "notes": SSI_ANNUAL_PAYMENT_TARGET_NOTES,
+    },
+}
+
+
+def get_ssi_annual_payment_target(year) -> dict | None:
+    return SSI_ANNUAL_PAYMENT_TARGETS.get(int(str(year)[:4]))
 
 
 SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGET_YEAR = 2024

tests/unit/calibration/test_loss_targets.py

@@ -378,10 +378,10 @@ def test_add_ssi_recipient_targets_adds_total_and_age_counts():
     )
 
 
-def test_legacy_cbo_ssi_target_uses_cbo_projection():
+def test_legacy_cbo_ssi_target_uses_ssa_actual_when_available():
     sim = _FakeCBOProgramTargetSimulation()
 
-    assert _cbo_program_target_value(sim, "ssi", 2024) == 57_000_000_000
+    assert _cbo_program_target_value(sim, "ssi", 2024) == 59_665_127_000
     assert _cbo_program_target_value(sim, "snap", 2024) == 1_000.0
 
 

tests/unit/test_etl_national_targets.py

@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@
     load_state_acs_rent_targets,
 )
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.ssi_targets import (
-    SSI_CBO_TARGET_SOURCE,
+    SSI_ANNUAL_PAYMENT_TARGET_SOURCE,
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGETS_2024,
 )
 
@@ -442,7 +442,7 @@ def test_extract_national_targets_includes_ssi_count_targets():
     }
 
 
-def test_extract_national_targets_uses_ssi_cbo_target(monkeypatch):
+def test_extract_national_targets_uses_ssi_ssa_actual_when_available(monkeypatch):
     class FakeIncomeBySource:
         _children = {
             target["parameter"]: 0
@@ -488,9 +488,17 @@ class FakeTaxBenefitSystem:
         target for target in raw_targets["cbo_targets"] if target["variable"] == "ssi"
     )
 
-    assert ssi_target["value"] == 57_000_000_000
-    assert ssi_target["source"] == SSI_CBO_TARGET_SOURCE
-    assert ssi_target["notes"] == "CBO projection for ssi"
+    assert ssi_target["value"] == 59_665_127_000
+    assert ssi_target["source"] == SSI_ANNUAL_PAYMENT_TARGET_SOURCE
+    assert "SSA SSI Annual Statistical Report, 2024, Table 2" in ssi_target["notes"]
+    assert "month due" in ssi_target["notes"]
+    assert "annual `ssi` over January-December benefit months" in ssi_target["notes"]
+    assert "OACT Table IV.C2" in ssi_target["notes"]
+    assert "$57.600B" in ssi_target["notes"]
+    assert "OACT Table IV.C1" in ssi_target["notes"]
+    assert "$63.080B" in ssi_target["notes"]
+    assert "$5.480B above OACT FY2024" in ssi_target["notes"]
+    assert "recovered overpayments" in ssi_target["notes"]
 
 
 def test_load_national_targets_uses_medicaid_enrolled_for_enrollment_counts(