Remove SSI fiscal-year calibration variable

Author: MaxGhenis

policyengine_us_data/calibration/sanity_checks.py

@@ -36,9 +36,7 @@
     "income_tax_before_credits",
 ]
 
-COMPUTED_KEY_MONETARY_VARS = [
-    "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays",
-]
+COMPUTED_KEY_MONETARY_VARS = []
 
 TAKEUP_VARS = [
     "takes_up_snap_if_eligible",
@@ -665,6 +663,9 @@ def _append_finite_check(var: str, vals) -> None:
 
 
 def _computed_key_monetary_values(h5_path: str, period: int) -> dict[str, np.ndarray]:
+    if not COMPUTED_KEY_MONETARY_VARS:
+        return {}
+
     try:
         from policyengine_us import Microsimulation
 

policyengine_us_data/calibration/target_config.yaml

@@ -205,7 +205,7 @@ include:
     geo_level: national
   - variable: social_security_survivors
     geo_level: national
-  - variable: ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays
+  - variable: ssi
     geo_level: national
   - variable: person_count
     geo_level: national

policyengine_us_data/db/etl_national_targets.py

@@ -27,13 +27,11 @@
     get_geographic_strata,
 )
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.ssi_targets import (
-    SSI_PAYMENT_TARGET_SOURCE,
+    SSI_CBO_TARGET_SOURCE,
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGET_NOTES,
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGET_SOURCE,
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGET_YEAR,
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGETS_2024,
-    get_ssi_payment_target_notes,
-    scale_ssi_fiscal_year_target_for_single_year_data,
 )
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.target_variables import (
     target_variable_components,
@@ -781,14 +779,13 @@ def extract_national_targets(year: int = DEFAULT_YEAR):
         "income_tax_positive",
         "snap",
         "social_security",
-        "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays",
+        "ssi",
         "unemployment_compensation",
     ]
 
     # Mapping from target variable to CBO parameter name (when different)
     cbo_param_name_map = {
         "income_tax_positive": "income_tax",  # CBO param is income_tax
-        "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays": "ssi",
     }
 
     cbo_targets = []
@@ -800,12 +797,8 @@ def extract_national_targets(year: int = DEFAULT_YEAR):
             ).calibration.gov.cbo._children[param_name]
             source = "CBO Budget Projections"
             notes = f"CBO projection for {variable_name}"
-            if variable_name == "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays":
-                value = scale_ssi_fiscal_year_target_for_single_year_data(
-                    value, time_period
-                )
-                source = SSI_PAYMENT_TARGET_SOURCE
-                notes = get_ssi_payment_target_notes(time_period)
+            if variable_name == "ssi":
+                source = SSI_CBO_TARGET_SOURCE
             cbo_targets.append(
                 {
                     "variable": variable_name,
@@ -951,14 +944,6 @@ def load_national_targets(
         for _, target_data in direct_targets_df.iterrows():
             target_year = target_data["year"]
             _register_target_variable(session, target_data["variable"])
-            if target_data["variable"] == "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays":
-                _deactivate_replaced_national_target(
-                    session,
-                    stratum_id=us_stratum.stratum_id,
-                    old_variable="ssi",
-                    new_variable="ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays",
-                    period=target_year,
-                )
             # Check if target already exists
             existing_target = session.exec(
                 select(Target).where(

policyengine_us_data/utils/loss.py

@@ -28,7 +28,6 @@
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.soi import pe_to_soi, get_soi, get_tracked_soi_row
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.ssi_targets import (
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGETS_2024,
-    scale_ssi_fiscal_year_target_for_single_year_data,
 )
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.target_variables import (
     target_variable_components,
@@ -100,13 +99,12 @@
     "income_tax_positive",
     "snap",
     "social_security",
-    "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays",
+    "ssi",
     "unemployment_compensation",
 ]
 
 CBO_PARAM_NAME_MAP = {
     "income_tax_positive": "income_tax",
-    "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays": "ssi",
 }
 
 HARD_CODED_TOTALS = {
@@ -251,12 +249,9 @@ def _add_ssi_recipient_targets(loss_matrix, targets_array, sim, time_period):
 
 def _cbo_program_target_value(sim, variable_name: str, time_period):
     param_name = CBO_PARAM_NAME_MAP.get(variable_name, variable_name)
-    value = sim.tax_benefit_system.parameters(
-        time_period
-    ).calibration.gov.cbo._children[param_name]
-    if variable_name == "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays":
-        return scale_ssi_fiscal_year_target_for_single_year_data(value, time_period)
-    return value
+    return sim.tax_benefit_system.parameters(time_period).calibration.gov.cbo._children[
+        param_name
+    ]
 
 
 ACA_SPENDING_TARGETS = {

policyengine_us_data/utils/ssi_targets.py

@@ -1,97 +1,8 @@
 """Shared SSI calibration targets."""
 
-from datetime import date, timedelta
-
 SSI_CBO_TARGET_SOURCE = (
     "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51313-2026-02-ssi.xlsx"
 )
-SSI_PAYMENT_TIMING_SOURCE = "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/ssir/SSI24/IV_C_Payments.html"
-SSI_PAYMENT_RULE_SOURCE = "https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/cfr20/416/416-0502.htm"
-SSI_PAYMENT_TARGET_SOURCE = (
-    f"{SSI_CBO_TARGET_SOURCE}; {SSI_PAYMENT_TIMING_SOURCE}; {SSI_PAYMENT_RULE_SOURCE}"
-)
-
-
-def _as_fiscal_year(year) -> int:
-    return int(str(year)[:4])
-
-
-def _is_new_years_day_observed(day: date) -> bool:
-    new_years_day = date(day.year, 1, 1)
-    next_new_years_day = date(day.year + 1, 1, 1)
-    return (
-        day == new_years_day
-        or (new_years_day.weekday() == 6 and day == date(day.year, 1, 2))
-        or (next_new_years_day.weekday() == 5 and day == date(day.year, 12, 31))
-    )
-
-
-def _is_labor_day(day: date) -> bool:
-    return day.month == 9 and day.weekday() == 0 and day.day <= 7
-
-
-def _is_federal_holiday_affecting_ssi_payment(day: date) -> bool:
-    return _is_new_years_day_observed(day) or _is_labor_day(day)
-
-
-def _ssi_payment_date(year: int, month: int) -> date:
-    payment_date = date(year, month, 1)
-    while payment_date.weekday() >= 5 or _is_federal_holiday_affecting_ssi_payment(
-        payment_date
-    ):
-        payment_date -= timedelta(days=1)
-    return payment_date
-
-
-def _ssi_fiscal_year_benefit_months(year) -> list[date]:
-    fiscal_year = _as_fiscal_year(year)
-    fiscal_year_start = date(fiscal_year - 1, 10, 1)
-    fiscal_year_end = date(fiscal_year, 9, 30)
-
-    benefit_months = []
-    for calendar_year in (fiscal_year - 1, fiscal_year):
-        for month in range(1, 13):
-            payment_day = _ssi_payment_date(calendar_year, month)
-            if fiscal_year_start <= payment_day <= fiscal_year_end:
-                benefit_months.append(date(calendar_year, month, 1))
-    return benefit_months
-
-
-def get_ssi_fiscal_year_payment_count(year) -> int:
-    """Return SSI benefit months with payment dates in the federal fiscal year."""
-    return len(_ssi_fiscal_year_benefit_months(year))
-
-
-def get_ssi_single_year_available_payment_count(year) -> int:
-    """Return fiscal-year SSI benefit months available from a single-year H5."""
-    fiscal_year = _as_fiscal_year(year)
-    return sum(
-        benefit_month.year == fiscal_year
-        for benefit_month in _ssi_fiscal_year_benefit_months(year)
-    )
-
-
-def scale_ssi_fiscal_year_target_for_single_year_data(value, year) -> float:
-    """Scale full fiscal-year SSI outlays to months computable from one H5 year."""
-    return (
-        float(value)
-        * get_ssi_single_year_available_payment_count(year)
-        / get_ssi_fiscal_year_payment_count(year)
-    )
-
-
-def get_ssi_payment_target_notes(year) -> str:
-    fiscal_year = _as_fiscal_year(year)
-    available_count = get_ssi_single_year_available_payment_count(year)
-    payment_count = get_ssi_fiscal_year_payment_count(year)
-    return (
-        "CBO SSI federal fiscal-year outlays scaled to the benefit months "
-        "computable from a single-year PolicyEngine-US-data H5 using "
-        "policyengine-us ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays; "
-        f"FY{fiscal_year} has {payment_count} SSI benefit months paid in the "
-        f"federal fiscal year, of which {available_count} are benefit months "
-        f"in calendar year {fiscal_year}"
-    )
 
 
 SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGET_YEAR = 2024

tests/unit/calibration/test_hourly_wage_income_consistency.py

@@ -62,23 +62,14 @@ def test_run_sanity_checks_adds_hourly_wage_income_consistency(tmp_path):
     assert by_check["hourly_wage_income_consistency_overtime"]["status"] == "WARN"
 
 
-def test_run_sanity_checks_keeps_raw_ssi_and_checks_computed_outlays(
-    tmp_path, monkeypatch
-):
+def test_run_sanity_checks_keeps_raw_ssi_without_computed_outlays(tmp_path):
     h5_path = tmp_path / "sample.h5"
     with h5py.File(h5_path, "w") as h5:
         _write_period_dataset(h5, "household_weight", [1.0, 1.0])
         _write_period_dataset(h5, "ssi", [100.0, 0.0])
 
-    monkeypatch.setattr(
-        "policyengine_us_data.calibration.sanity_checks._computed_key_monetary_values",
-        lambda h5_path, period: {
-            "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays": np.array([100.0, np.inf])
-        },
-    )
-
     diagnostics = run_sanity_checks(str(h5_path), period=2024)
     by_check = {diagnostic["check"]: diagnostic for diagnostic in diagnostics}
 
     assert by_check["no_nan_inf_ssi"]["status"] == "PASS"
-    assert by_check["no_nan_inf_ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays"]["status"] == "FAIL"
+    assert "no_nan_inf_ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays" not in by_check

tests/unit/calibration/test_loss_targets.py

@@ -42,9 +42,6 @@
 from policyengine_us_data.db import etl_national_targets
 from policyengine_us_data.utils.ssi_targets import (
     SSI_RECIPIENT_TARGETS_2024,
-    get_ssi_fiscal_year_payment_count,
-    get_ssi_single_year_available_payment_count,
-    scale_ssi_fiscal_year_target_for_single_year_data,
 )
 
 
@@ -381,28 +378,10 @@ def test_add_ssi_recipient_targets_adds_total_and_age_counts():
     )
 
 
-def test_ssi_payment_targets_scale_to_single_year_fiscal_year_coverage():
-    assert get_ssi_fiscal_year_payment_count(2024) == 11
-    assert get_ssi_single_year_available_payment_count(2024) == 9
-    assert get_ssi_fiscal_year_payment_count(2025) == 12
-    assert get_ssi_single_year_available_payment_count(2025) == 9
-    assert get_ssi_fiscal_year_payment_count(2028) == 13
-    assert get_ssi_single_year_available_payment_count(2028) == 10
-
-    assert scale_ssi_fiscal_year_target_for_single_year_data(
-        57_000_000_000, 2024
-    ) == pytest.approx(57_000_000_000 * 9 / 11)
-    assert scale_ssi_fiscal_year_target_for_single_year_data(
-        75_400_000_000, 2028
-    ) == pytest.approx(75_400_000_000 * 10 / 13)
-
-
-def test_legacy_cbo_ssi_target_uses_single_year_fiscal_year_coverage():
+def test_legacy_cbo_ssi_target_uses_cbo_projection():
     sim = _FakeCBOProgramTargetSimulation()
 
-    assert _cbo_program_target_value(
-        sim, "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays", 2024
-    ) == pytest.approx(57_000_000_000 * 9 / 11)
+    assert _cbo_program_target_value(sim, "ssi", 2024) == 57_000_000_000
     assert _cbo_program_target_value(sim, "snap", 2024) == 1_000.0
 
 

tests/unit/calibration/test_target_config.py

@@ -546,10 +546,7 @@ def test_training_config_includes_ssi_recipient_count_targets(self):
         )
 
         include_rules = config["include"]
-        assert {
-            "variable": "ssi_federal_fiscal_year_outlays",
-            "geo_level": "national",
-        } in include_rules
+        assert {"variable": "ssi", "geo_level": "national"} in include_rules
         assert {
             "variable": "person_count",
             "geo_level": "national",