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Fail ECPS calibration on household count drift#1150

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fix-ecps-household-weight-total-guard
Open

Fail ECPS calibration on household count drift#1150
MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit into
mainfrom
fix-ecps-household-weight-total-guard

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented May 28, 2026

Summary

  • Validates final Enhanced CPS household weights against the source/prior household count, not just a broad 100M-200M range.
  • Applies the same guard to the reweighted CPS path.
  • Adds regression tests for accepting close totals and rejecting inflated totals like the old local clone-prior artifact.

Local validation

  • uv run ruff check policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/enhanced_cps.py tests/unit/datasets/test_enhanced_cps_seeding.py
  • uv run pytest tests/unit/calibration/test_loss_targets.py tests/unit/datasets/test_enhanced_cps_seeding.py (46 passed)

Local build note

A full local make data-legacy attempt is blocked in this shell by missing Hugging Face auth for private policyengine/irs-soi-puf; the failure occurs before any data build code runs.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis force-pushed the fix-ecps-household-weight-total-guard branch from 1967ba0 to a1232ba Compare May 28, 2026 01:09
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