Add state-specific Medicaid takeup rates and Section 1931 deprivation rules

changelog_entry.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+- bump: minor
+  changes:
+    added:
+    - State-specific Medicaid takeup rates calibrated against administrative enrollment data. Rates range from 53% (Utah) to 99% (Colorado), replacing the uniform 93% national rate.
+    - Deprivation requirement parameter for Medicaid parent eligibility in non-expansion states (TX, FL, GA, etc.).
+    - is_single_parent_household variable to determine if a person qualifies under Section 1931 deprivation rules.
+    changed:
+    - Medicaid parent eligibility (is_parent_for_medicaid_nfc) now checks deprivation requirement for non-expansion states, correctly excluding married parents who don't meet Section 1931 criteria.

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicaid/eligibility/categories/parent/requires_deprivation.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+description: >
+  Whether the state requires a child to be "deprived of parental support"
+  for parent Medicaid eligibility. This is based on Section 1931 criteria
+  which applies to non-expansion states using pre-ACA AFDC rules.
+  In practice, this means two-parent households generally do not qualify
+  unless one parent is incapacitated or unemployed.
+metadata:
+  label: Medicaid parent eligibility requires deprivation
+  unit: bool
+  period: year
+  breakdown:
+    - state_code
+  reference:
+    - title: Section 1931 Medicaid Eligibility
+      href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1396u-1
+    - title: KFF - Medicaid Eligibility for Parents
+      href: https://www.kff.org/medicaid/state-indicator/medicaid-income-eligibility-limits-for-parents/
+# Non-expansion states that use Section 1931 deprivation rules
+# These states did NOT expand Medicaid and have very restrictive parent eligibility
+AL:
+  2018-01-01: true
+FL:
+  2018-01-01: true
+GA:
+  2018-01-01: true
+KS:
+  2018-01-01: true
+MS:
+  2018-01-01: true
+NC:
+  2018-01-01: true
+  2023-12-01: false  # NC expanded Medicaid
+SC:
+  2018-01-01: true
+SD:
+  2018-01-01: true
+TN:
+  2018-01-01: true
+TX:
+  2018-01-01: true
+WI:
+  2018-01-01: true  # WI has unusual partial expansion but keeps deprivation
+WY:
+  2018-01-01: true
+# Expansion states - no deprivation requirement
+AK:
+  2018-01-01: false
+AR:
+  2018-01-01: false
+AZ:
+  2018-01-01: false
+CA:
+  2018-01-01: false
+CO:
+  2018-01-01: false
+CT:
+  2018-01-01: false
+DC:
+  2018-01-01: false
+DE:
+  2018-01-01: false
+HI:
+  2018-01-01: false
+IA:
+  2018-01-01: false
+ID:
+  2018-01-01: false
+IL:
+  2018-01-01: false
+IN:
+  2018-01-01: false
+KY:
+  2018-01-01: false
+LA:
+  2018-01-01: false
+MA:
+  2018-01-01: false
+MD:
+  2018-01-01: false
+ME:
+  2018-01-01: false
+MI:
+  2018-01-01: false
+MN:
+  2018-01-01: false
+MO:
+  2018-01-01: false
+MT:
+  2018-01-01: false
+ND:
+  2018-01-01: false
+NE:
+  2018-01-01: false
+NH:
+  2018-01-01: false
+NJ:
+  2018-01-01: false
+NM:
+  2018-01-01: false
+NV:
+  2018-01-01: false
+NY:
+  2018-01-01: false
+OH:
+  2018-01-01: false
+OK:
+  2018-01-01: false
+OR:
+  2018-01-01: false
+PA:
+  2018-01-01: false
+RI:
+  2018-01-01: false
+UT:
+  2018-01-01: false
+VA:
+  2018-01-01: false
+VT:
+  2018-01-01: false
+WA:
+  2018-01-01: false
+WV:
+  2018-01-01: false

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicaid/takeup_rate.yaml

@@ -1,12 +1,116 @@
 description: Percentage of people who do enroll in Medicaid, if eligible.
-values:
-  2018-01-01: 0.93
 metadata:
   label: Medicaid takeup rate
   unit: /1
   period: year
   economy: false
   household: false
+  breakdown:
+    - state_code
   reference:
     - title: KFF "A Closer Look at the Remaining Uninsured Population Eligible for Medicaid and CHIP"
-      href: https://www.kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/a-closer-look-at-the-remaining-uninsured-population-eligible-for-medicaid-and-chip/#:~:text=the%20uninsured%20rate%20dropped%20to,States%20began%20the
+      href: https://www.kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/a-closer-look-at-the-remaining-uninsured-population-eligible-for-medicaid-and-chip/
+    - title: State-specific rates derived from MACPAC enrollment targets vs modeled eligibility
+      href: https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/program-information/medicaid-and-chip-enrollment-data/report-highlights/index.html
+AK:
+  2018-01-01: 0.88
+AL:
+  2018-01-01: 0.92
+AR:
+  2018-01-01: 0.79
+AZ:
+  2018-01-01: 0.95
+CA:
+  2018-01-01: 0.78
+CO:
+  2018-01-01: 0.99
+CT:
+  2018-01-01: 0.89
+DC:
+  2018-01-01: 0.99
+DE:
+  2018-01-01: 0.86
+FL:
+  2018-01-01: 0.98
+GA:
+  2018-01-01: 0.73
+HI:
+  2018-01-01: 0.88
+IA:
+  2018-01-01: 0.84
+ID:
+  2018-01-01: 0.78
+IL:
+  2018-01-01: 0.85
+IN:
+  2018-01-01: 0.99
+KS:
+  2018-01-01: 0.92
+KY:
+  2018-01-01: 0.87
+LA:
+  2018-01-01: 0.79
+MA:
+  2018-01-01: 0.94
+MD:
+  2018-01-01: 0.95
+ME:
+  2018-01-01: 0.92
+MI:
+  2018-01-01: 0.91
+MN:
+  2018-01-01: 0.89
+MO:
+  2018-01-01: 0.89
+MS:
+  2018-01-01: 0.75
+MT:
+  2018-01-01: 0.83
+NC:
+  2018-01-01: 0.94
+ND:
+  2018-01-01: 0.91
+NE:
+  2018-01-01: 0.79
+NH:
+  2018-01-01: 0.84
+NJ:
+  2018-01-01: 0.74
+NM:
+  2018-01-01: 0.84
+NV:
+  2018-01-01: 0.93
+NY:
+  2018-01-01: 0.86
+OH:
+  2018-01-01: 0.82
+OK:
+  2018-01-01: 0.77
+OR:
+  2018-01-01: 0.92
+PA:
+  2018-01-01: 0.64
+RI:
+  2018-01-01: 0.94
+SC:
+  2018-01-01: 0.93
+SD:
+  2018-01-01: 0.88
+TN:
+  2018-01-01: 0.92
+TX:
+  2018-01-01: 0.76
+UT:
+  2018-01-01: 0.53
+VA:
+  2018-01-01: 0.82
+VT:
+  2018-01-01: 0.93
+WA:
+  2018-01-01: 0.98
+WI:
+  2018-01-01: 0.91
+WV:
+  2018-01-01: 0.83
+WY:
+  2018-01-01: 0.70

policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hhs/medicaid/takes_up_medicaid_if_eligible.yaml

@@ -1,13 +1,15 @@
 - name: Seed above takeup rate
   period: 2025
   input:
+    state_code: CA
     medicaid_take_up_seed: 1
   output:
     takes_up_medicaid_if_eligible: false
 
 - name: Seed below takeup rate
   period: 2025
   input:
-    medicaid_take_up_seed: 0.9
+    state_code: CA
+    medicaid_take_up_seed: 0.5
   output:
     takes_up_medicaid_if_eligible: true

policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/ssa/ssi/eligibility/test_meets_ssi_resource_test.py

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+from policyengine_us import Simulation
+
+
+def test_meets_ssi_resource_test_microsim_branch():
+    sim = Simulation(
+        situation={
+            "people": {
+                "person1": {
+                    "ssi_resource_test_seed": {"2024": 0.1},
+                },
+                "person2": {
+                    "ssi_resource_test_seed": {"2024": 0.9},
+                },
+            },
+            "households": {
+                "household1": {
+                    "members": ["person1", "person2"],
+                },
+            },
+        }
+    )
+    sim.dataset = "mock"
+    result = sim.calculate("meets_ssi_resource_test", "2024")
+    assert result[0] == True  # 0.1 < 0.4 pass_rate
+    assert result[1] == False  # 0.9 >= 0.4 pass_rate

policyengine_us/variables/gov/hhs/medicaid/eligibility/categories/parent/is_parent_for_medicaid_nfc.py

@@ -6,10 +6,40 @@ class is_parent_for_medicaid_nfc(Variable):
     entity = Person
     label = "Medicaid parent non-financial criteria"
     definition_period = YEAR
+    documentation = """
+    Determines if a person meets the non-financial criteria for Medicaid
+    parent eligibility.
+
+    In expansion states: Any adult who is not a dependent and has dependents
+    in their tax unit qualifies.
+
+    In non-expansion states (Section 1931 states): The state requires a child
+    to be "deprived of parental support" which typically means single-parent
+    households only. Two-parent households generally do not qualify unless
+    one parent is incapacitated or unemployed.
+
+    References:
+    - 42 USC 1396u-1 (Section 1931)
+    - https://www.kff.org/medicaid/state-indicator/medicaid-income-eligibility-limits-for-parents/
+    """
 
     def formula(person, period, parameters):
         is_dependent = person("is_tax_unit_dependent", period)
         has_dependent_in_tax_unit = (
             person.tax_unit("tax_unit_count_dependents", period) > 0
         )
-        return ~is_dependent & has_dependent_in_tax_unit
+
+        # Basic criteria: not a dependent AND has dependents
+        meets_basic_criteria = ~is_dependent & has_dependent_in_tax_unit
+
+        # Check if state requires deprivation (non-expansion states)
+        state = person.household("state_code_str", period)
+        p = parameters(period).gov.hhs.medicaid.eligibility.categories.parent
+        requires_deprivation = p.requires_deprivation[state]
+
+        # For states requiring deprivation, must be single parent
+        is_single_parent = person("is_single_parent_household", period)
+        requires_deprivation_bool = requires_deprivation.astype(bool)
+        meets_deprivation = ~requires_deprivation_bool | is_single_parent
+
+        return meets_basic_criteria & meets_deprivation

policyengine_us/variables/gov/hhs/medicaid/eligibility/categories/parent/is_single_parent_household.py

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+from policyengine_us.model_api import *
+
+
+class is_single_parent_household(Variable):
+    value_type = bool
+    entity = Person
+    label = "Person is in a single-parent household (for Medicaid deprivation)"
+    definition_period = YEAR
+    documentation = """
+    Determines if a person is a single parent for purposes of Medicaid
+    Section 1931 eligibility in non-expansion states.
+
+    Under Section 1931, states that did not expand Medicaid require a child
+    to be "deprived of parental support" for the parent to qualify. This
+    typically means single-parent households qualify, while two-parent
+    households generally do not (unless one parent is incapacitated/unemployed).
+
+    This variable returns True for:
+    - Head of Household filers with dependents (clearly single parents)
+    - Single filers with dependents
+
+    It returns False for:
+    - Joint filers (married couples)
+    - Married filing separately (still married)
+    """
+
+    def formula(person, period, parameters):
+        filing_status = person.tax_unit("filing_status", period)
+        is_head = person("is_tax_unit_head", period)
+        has_dependents = (
+            person.tax_unit("tax_unit_count_dependents", period) > 0
+        )
+
+        # Single parent = not married AND has dependents AND is the head
+        is_joint = filing_status == filing_status.possible_values.JOINT
+        is_separate = filing_status == filing_status.possible_values.SEPARATE
+        is_married_filing = is_joint | is_separate
+
+        return ~is_married_filing & has_dependents & is_head

policyengine_us/variables/gov/hhs/medicaid/takes_up_medicaid_if_eligible.py

@@ -4,10 +4,11 @@
 class takes_up_medicaid_if_eligible(Variable):
     value_type = bool
     entity = Person
-    label = "Whether a random eligible person unit does not enroll in Medicaid"
+    label = "Whether an eligible person takes up Medicaid"
     definition_period = YEAR
 
     def formula(person, period, parameters):
         seed = person("medicaid_take_up_seed", period)
-        takeup_rate = parameters(period).gov.hhs.medicaid.takeup_rate
+        state = person.household("state_code_str", period)
+        takeup_rate = parameters(period).gov.hhs.medicaid.takeup_rate[state]
         return seed < takeup_rate