gate_w1 amendment 3 (ceremony pending): hh_size demotion + pair-scoped C2

Proposal (DRAFT) to demote the four family-A household-size cells
hh_size_share.{1,3,4,5plus} to report-only (uniform machine reason
no_permitted_entry_state_lever_reaches_cell) and re-scope the family-C gated
binary C2 from the full 4-element ordering to the pair-scoped elim<->+2pp swap
(the cap_150k/+1pp legs report-only,
anchor_ordering_internally_inconsistent_under_certified_swap). hh_size_share.2
stays gated (candidate 3 clears it 5/5). Zero threshold movement; gates.yaml
UNTOUCHED -- the flip is a separate ratified PR.

Evidence: W1 forensics 3 (runs/gate_w1_forensics3_v1.json, registration 4959668253,
grading 4960691167). Q10 -- the cap_150k entailment: the same above-wage-base
compression correction that certifies the elim<->+2pp swap mechanically lifts
cap_150k to rank 2 (deployed A/B 1.694 PV), so the 4-element ordering is internally
inconsistent as a representative-frame transport target (elim>+2pp <=> A/B>0.1613 vs
the Smith-adjacency window A/B in (0.1613, 0.184), overshot ~10x); the above-cap
share owns 0.9925 of the gap; contract-permitted lever restoration enumerates EMPTY;
the pair-scoped C2 is anchor-supported (Smith 2015 p.3: elim +21yr > +2pp +18yr) and
realised 3/3 across c1/c2/c3. Q11 -- the hh_size levers are exhausted: the roster-
ceiling probe reaches terminal coresidence only 0.111 (capped by the certified
parental-exit hazard, not the seed) and does not close size-1; three candidates
deep, all named levers deployed; the residual needs a non-entry-state household
model. Both surfaces were pre-named in the ratified amendment-2 series forecast
before c3 ran.

The whittling question, head-on (section 3): the post-amendment 44-cell surface (43
family-A joints + the pair-scoped C2) would be PASSABLE by the already-committed
candidate-3 model -- c3 lands 43/43 of the surviving family-A cells in-band on all
five seeds and realised the elim<->+2pp swap -- a first for this gate. The demotion
boundary is the permitted-lever line applied prospectively (pre-named before c3
ran), not a post-hoc fit to c3; candidates 1 (PR #162), 2 (PR #167), and 3 (PR #176)
all STAND FAIL (no self-rescue; c3's committed FAIL was scored under the current
contract). A candidate-4 registration of the unchanged c3 model follows the flip,
subject to the standing independent bit-exact reproduction addendum.

OC recompute (frozen floor sigmas): family A 47 -> 43 gated, p_seed 0.9344 ->
0.9403, p_gate 0.9623 -> 0.9684; the gate OC moves from 0.9623 x I(C2) to 0.9684 x
I(pair-swap) on the residual 44-cell surface (48 -> 44 gated, 84 -> 88 report-only;
cube shape [20,47,5] -> [20,43,5]).

Machine-checkable ledger + section-7 flip text string-bound to
tests/test_gate_w1_amendment3_proposal.py (23 artifact-tier tests binding every
load-bearing figure -- forensics-3 shares/mirror/ceiling, per-cell pass records from
all three cubes, OC before/after, partition roll-ups; mutation battery >=6 incl. the
blanket-impossibility-reintroduction and whittling-section-deletion guards). Tier
manifest recount: artifact 965 -> 988 (rebased onto the gate_m6 lock, #177). gates.yaml
byte-identical to origin/master.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: MaxGhenis