gate_w1 amendment 3: demote the hh_size quad + pair-scope C2 (ratified after five-round ceremony) (#180)

* gate_w1 amendment 3 (ceremony pending): hh_size demotion + pair-scoped C2

Proposal (DRAFT) to demote the four family-A household-size cells
hh_size_share.{1,3,4,5plus} to report-only (uniform machine reason
no_permitted_entry_state_lever_reaches_cell) and re-scope the family-C gated
binary C2 from the full 4-element ordering to the pair-scoped elim<->+2pp swap
(the cap_150k/+1pp legs report-only,
anchor_ordering_internally_inconsistent_under_certified_swap). hh_size_share.2
stays gated (candidate 3 clears it 5/5). Zero threshold movement; gates.yaml
UNTOUCHED -- the flip is a separate ratified PR.

Evidence: W1 forensics 3 (runs/gate_w1_forensics3_v1.json, registration 4959668253,
grading 4960691167). Q10 -- the cap_150k entailment: the same above-wage-base
compression correction that certifies the elim<->+2pp swap mechanically lifts
cap_150k to rank 2 (deployed A/B 1.694 PV), so the 4-element ordering is internally
inconsistent as a representative-frame transport target (elim>+2pp <=> A/B>0.1613 vs
the Smith-adjacency window A/B in (0.1613, 0.184), overshot ~10x); the above-cap
share owns 0.9925 of the gap; contract-permitted lever restoration enumerates EMPTY;
the pair-scoped C2 is anchor-supported (Smith 2015 p.3: elim +21yr > +2pp +18yr) and
realised 3/3 across c1/c2/c3. Q11 -- the hh_size levers are exhausted: the roster-
ceiling probe reaches terminal coresidence only 0.111 (capped by the certified
parental-exit hazard, not the seed) and does not close size-1; three candidates
deep, all named levers deployed; the residual needs a non-entry-state household
model. Both surfaces were pre-named in the ratified amendment-2 series forecast
before c3 ran.

The whittling question, head-on (section 3): the post-amendment 44-cell surface (43
family-A joints + the pair-scoped C2) would be PASSABLE by the already-committed
candidate-3 model -- c3 lands 43/43 of the surviving family-A cells in-band on all
five seeds and realised the elim<->+2pp swap -- a first for this gate. The demotion
boundary is the permitted-lever line applied prospectively (pre-named before c3
ran), not a post-hoc fit to c3; candidates 1 (PR #162), 2 (PR #167), and 3 (PR #176)
all STAND FAIL (no self-rescue; c3's committed FAIL was scored under the current
contract). A candidate-4 registration of the unchanged c3 model follows the flip,
subject to the standing independent bit-exact reproduction addendum.

OC recompute (frozen floor sigmas): family A 47 -> 43 gated, p_seed 0.9344 ->
0.9403, p_gate 0.9623 -> 0.9684; the gate OC moves from 0.9623 x I(C2) to 0.9684 x
I(pair-swap) on the residual 44-cell surface (48 -> 44 gated, 84 -> 88 report-only;
cube shape [20,47,5] -> [20,43,5]).

Machine-checkable ledger + section-7 flip text string-bound to
tests/test_gate_w1_amendment3_proposal.py (23 artifact-tier tests binding every
load-bearing figure -- forensics-3 shares/mirror/ceiling, per-cell pass records from
all three cubes, OC before/after, partition roll-ups; mutation battery >=6 incl. the
blanket-impossibility-reintroduction and whittling-section-deletion guards). Tier
manifest recount: artifact 965 -> 988 (rebased onto the gate_m6 lock, #177). gates.yaml
byte-identical to origin/master.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* gate_w1 amendment 3 fixes round 1: scope the C2 impossibility to the pinned frame

Addresses the adversarial referee round (PR #180 comment 4962052314, verdict AMEND
THE AMENDMENT -- recommendation survives on every recomputed probe P1/P2/P4/P5/P6).
Two grounds-precision findings; the demote-quad + pair-scope-C2 recommendation is
UNCHANGED.

F1 (primary -- the a2 defect class re-instantiated in the C2 argument): sections
2a/1/4b-c-c/8/10 asserted as a UNIVERSAL that "a frame cannot both realise the
certified swap and reproduce Smith's cap_150k rank / the 4-element ordering is
internally inconsistent as a representative-frame transport target". False as a
universal: the order-survival window is f-conditional (0.1613, 0.0806/f), widening to
~(0.1613, 0.37) at the near-band fraction f~=0.22, and forensics-3's own
order_at_f_deployed_0p22 = [elimination, payroll_plus_2pp, payroll_plus_1pp, cap_150k]
exhibits a representative frame (A/B~=0.22, f~=0.22) that realises the swap AND
reproduces the full 4-element Smith order (tau 1.0). Fix: scope the impossibility to
the PINNED certified frame throughout, and lead with the two dispositive grounds that
carry it -- (1) the pinned/deployed frame measures cap at rank 2 bit-identically
(A_band/B 0.373, cap 16.7yr, reproduced c1/c2/c3), so the pinned transport target
VIOLATES the full order while realising the swap; (2) no published anchor supports the
4-element order on a representative frame. The f-conditional window arithmetic is
retained as analysis with the caveat stated plainly (a swap-consistent full-order
frame exists at other f -- forensics-3 order_at_f_deployed_0p22). The machine reason
anchor_ordering_internally_inconsistent_under_certified_swap is retained (the referee
ruled its under_certified_swap qualifier already scopes correctly) with a new
pinned-frame ledger definition (cap_150k_impossibility block, scope
pinned_certified_frame).

F2 (minor): the fertility lever's "support floor" now reads "support ceiling"/maxed
consistently (it is maxed at the 15-entry certified support, not at a floor); the
lever-exhaustion claim is unaffected.

Bindings: +3 tests (26 total), incl. the pinned-frame-scope + f-conditional
refutation binding, a universal-C2-phrasing mutation guard, and a fertility-
terminology guard. Full mutation battery re-run: all previously-caught still caught +
the two new guards (16 distinct). Tier recount artifact 988 -> 991 (+3). Suite green
(unit+artifact 1217 passed / 41 skipped, 0 failed). gates.yaml UNTOUCHED (byte-
identical to origin/master). Ceremony record updated (section 8 referee_round +
section 11 checklist).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* gate_w1 amendment 3 fixes round 2: scope the §2a restoration clause to the pinned frame + extend the universal-phrasing guard

Responds to verification comment 4962578395 (verdict FURTHER FIXES x2 -- both
grounds-precision text edits, recommendation untouched).

V1 (PR-body squash message; a GitHub edit, not in this commit): the Evidence Q10
bullet carried the round-1 universal ("internally inconsistent as a
representative-frame transport target ... overshot ~10x", f-fixed window, no
caveat) verbatim; rewritten to the pinned-frame grounds (cap at rank 2, A_band/B
0.373 bit-identical; no published representative-frame anchor) with the
f-conditional window (0.1613, 0.0806/f) kept as analysis and the
order_at_f_deployed_0p22 counterexample stated -- mirrors the section-8 history
entry.

V2 (this commit -- section-2a restoration clause): "no unimodal earnings
distribution makes it small enough while landing A/B in the window" was an
unscoped frame-level universal that the fix's own caveat ten lines above
contradicts. Rescoped to the pinned frame's binding constraint: the pinned A/B
1.694 would need f < 0.0476 (= (0.01/r)/AB = 0.01/d_bal_elim, recomputed from the
artifact) to land in-window, far below the measured deployed f 0.220; the
artifact's "small enough (<0.5)" gloss and the "no contract-permitted lever"
conjunct are restored, and the only construction that could move a pinned A/B
that far (tail back-solving) is named as the prohibited identity-in-disguise.

Bindings/guard:
- Ledger field pinned_A_over_B_needs_f_below_round4 0.0476, recomputed from the
  forensics-3 revenue components in
  test_q10_impossibility_scoped_to_pinned_frame_not_universal.
- BANNED_UNIVERSAL_C2_PHRASINGS extended past the round-1 slots to the
  earnings-distribution / representative-frame synonym class -- the verifier's
  M4 ("no earnings distribution of any shape ...") and M4b ("no representative
  frame whatsoever ...") mutations are now caught, along with the section-2a
  slot's "no unimodal earnings distribution makes it small enough".
- The caveat-existence binding tightened from OR to AND (verifier soft spot 2:
  M2b-style deletion of the existence sentence is now caught).

26 module bindings (unchanged function count; +1 bound figure, f<0.0476), tier
artifact 991 unchanged (no new collected item), always-runnable suite 1217
passed / 41 skipped / 0 failed, black -l 79 + ruff clean. gates.yaml
byte-identical to origin/master; only the doc + test changed. Stays DRAFT.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: MaxGhenis