Paper: the transport ladder, the disability gate, and a gate amended by its own evidence

[MaxGhenis]

Carries paper/paper.qmd through every merged wave since the gate-2b pass (#149) — the gate-2c ladder and verified pass, the disability gate, the transport gate and its self-amendment, the interim benefit seam, the deployment infrastructure, and a full tally recomputation. Prose drafted in the paper's voice; every number verified from merged artifacts, PR bodies, issue-#42 registrations/gradings, gates.yaml, and runs/*.json.

Sections added / changed

• Tally (What failure buys) — recomputed: forty-two registered runs across six gates (13/16/9/2/1/1), thirty-seven failures against five passes, six gates locked with five ratified amendments (two gate 1, two gate 2, one transport — verified from gates.yaml amendment_history, not six), ten forensics rounds, six external-anchor replications, fifty forecasts registered / forty-nine graded (the open one = W1 candidate 2).
• The gate-2c candidate ladder + The first gate-2c pass (Gate-2c candidate 1: couple formation from certified components (registration 4950250151) #155/Gate-2c candidate 2: earnings-conditioned first-marriage timing (registration 4950370498) #157, verification 4950580430) — two candidates, the shortest family ladder; new table {#tbl-ladder-2c}; the all-gate-2-tranches-passed milestone (4950584695).
• The disability gate (M4) — floors M4 disability gate: floors and anchor evidence base #153 (round-1 restoring the occupancy-stock teeth), lock M4 disability gate flip: lock ratified 2026-07-12 (ceremony record inside) #159 (start-wave weight fix), candidate 1 PASS 5/5 (M4 candidate 1: disability hazards under the locked gate_m4 (PASS 5/5) #161) with the both-constructions gap adjudication (4951142927).
• The transport gate (W1) — design W1 transport gate: design #151, floors W1 transport gate: floors evidence base #154 + the owned Fix tier manifest: unit 199 per CI collection #158 tier-manifest process violation, lock W1 transport gate flip: lock ratified 2026-07-12 (ceremony record inside) #160, candidate 1 FAIL 0/5 (W1 candidate 1: first full transport deployment (registration 4950931131) #162), forensics 1 (W1 forensics 1: the five transport mechanisms (registration 4951218279) #163), amendment 1 full ceremony (gate_w1 amendment 1 (draft — ceremony pending): family-B DI bands #164/gate_w1 amendment 1 flip (ceremony record inside) #165). Introduces the fourth referee class (a gate can itself be wrong; the ceremony catches it post-lock).
• The interim benefit seam (W2, W2 interim seam: caregiver-credit full tax-benefit incidence (registration 4950247511) #156) — gross $41.35B → net $36.02B, offsets enumerated, 4/4 expectations, 6e-8 seam gap; states the PolicyEngine-executes / Axiom-cross-validates division.
• Hardening the ledger extended with the contract-identity / env-sidecar / generic-evaluator infrastructure (Contract identity + env sidecars + generic evaluator (#106 P0-2) #152) and the household candidate-9 registry port (Household-composition component registry + c9 compatibility certificate #150).
• Section retitled → Three gates passed, a gate amended, and the projection roadmap; the "two things are true" and capability-roadmap paragraphs updated.

Verification

• Frozen sections byte-identical — all 54 deleted lines are inside the six intended edit regions; the YAML front matter, Introduction–Scoring, gate-1/2a/2b mechanics, @sec-surface, Related work, Status, and References are untouched.
• Always-runnable suite green inline (worktree, CI-equivalent): 1029 passed, 41 skipped, 1466 deselected — including test_paper_figures (the three committed SVGs still rebuild byte-for-byte).
• uvx black --check -l 79 . and uvx ruff check . clean; no .py, no committed artifact, and no gates.yaml block changed, so no tier refresh.

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