gate_w1 amendment 2 (draft — ceremony pending): family-A concept cells#169
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DRAFT proposal (ceremony pending). Demotes 7 structurally-unclearable cells to report-only: the C1 fingerprint (fingerprint_reversal_not_realized), the two 18-24 participation cells (population_concept_delta_head_spouse_universe, a 22.1pp head/spouse-vs-all-person gap), and the four 65+ marital/coresident cells (cohort_vintage_hazard_frame_mismatch, divorce over-accumulation -- a cohort-vintage hazard/frame mismatch; six permitted-lever construction-attempts each fail). Zero threshold movement; gates.yaml untouched. Family-A faithful OC recomputes 0.922/0.9481 -> 0.9344/0.9623 on the residual 47 cells (removing 6 family-A cells, unlike amendment 1's invariance); overall gate OC 0.9623 x I(C2) on the 48-cell surface (55 -> 48 gated). No-self-rescue is over-determined: both candidate 1 (PR #162) and candidate 2 (PR #167) still fail family A (0/5 seeds on the 47) AND family C (C2 tau 0.333) -- the rescue set is empty. Consistency bindings in tests/test_gate_w1_amendment2_proposal.py string- bind the section-7 flip text/roll-ups and section-8 history (amendment-1 fix-B standard, mutation-checked). Tier artifact 879 -> 897 (CI-equivalent recount). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Verdict: AMEND THE AMENDMENT. Adversarial round on the gate_w1 amendment-2 proposal (head 1. The whittling question, answered plainly. The boundary between demoted and retained cells tracks one principle — demote iff the committed forensics establishes that no contract-permitted lever reaches the cell; retain every cell with a live permitted lever, however badly the built candidates miss it — and the proposer applied it against self-interest:
2. BLOCKER — the per-cell impossibility claims are false for the female 65+ cells on the committed record; §4c/§5/§6.3/§8 must be corrected before this text becomes history. The proposal argues the 65+ group at the male cells' magnitudes and then asserts the conclusion for the quad and for all 7 cells:
3. My construction attempts (the levers the proposal's table does not contain) — all fail; candidate-independence HOLDS at gate level. I implemented and ran the missed entry-timing family with the committed v2 machinery bit-for-bit (same q1 model, same CANDIDATE_16 simulate, same stream salts; K=8, full sha-verified frame):
R1/R2 are the sharpest result of this round: the intuitive "seed old cohorts from old-cohort train data" lever the six-row table never tries makes the 65+ cells worse — the certified hazards' old-age dissolution erodes any short-window entry stock below the stationary level, and PSID's own 65+/55-64 entry stocks (0.538–0.681 F) sit below the frame everywhere. Together with R3, the achievable set over the entire permitted entry-state family is [0.42, 0.58] F / [0.60, 0.72] M against needs ≥0.56–0.59 F / ≥0.77–0.79 M. The 65+ demotion is not premature, and the one cell my attempts can reach (coresident F, via the stationary ceiling) is the one candidate 1 already reached — finding 2's point, not a rescue. 4. BLOCKER (candor) — the retained surface's passability is oversold by omission; two unpassability risks are already visible in committed artifacts. §5 says the residual 47 "still hold candidate-quality misses (the c3 levers …)" and calls C2 "its empirical burden"; §2a says C2 "holds under both tails and is untouched." The committed record is more specific and worse:
5. OC and σ arithmetic: the recomputes are exact; the §3 σ ranges describe only the 18-24 pair. From the frozen floor sigmas × locked tolerances (the derivations basis): 53-cell p_seed 0.921986576938052 → 0.922, p_gate 0.9480909495222698 → 0.9481; 47-cell p_seed 0.9344024116783913 → 0.9344, p_gate 0.962342065413138 → 0.9623 — ledger-exact, and removal raises p_seed as claimed. Demoted-cell faithful pass-probs 0.996536–0.998496 → round-3 min 0.997 / max 0.998 ✓. Partition arithmetic 53/52 → 47/58, 2/0 → 1/1, 55/77 → 48/84 verified against gates.yaml. But §3's "miss the hard cells by 0.23–0.44 ln against a sampling σ of ~0.05–0.07 (3–8σ)" fits only the 18-24 cells (σ 0.0720/0.0722; scores 0.23–0.44 across both candidates). The 65+ cells miss by 0.109–0.201 ln against σ 0.0274–0.0544; the honest multiple range across the six cells and both candidates is 2.0σ–6.6σ — and the sub-3σ end is exactly the female cells that sometimes pass (finding 2). The systematic-not-stochastic crux survives (mean-of-20 draw noise is 0.002–0.007, far below every miss); the stated ranges don't. Fix with fix A. 6. No-self-rescue: clean, over-determined, recomputed per-seed. On the residual 47: candidate 1 passes 0/5 seeds (21/20/17/22/23 cells fail per seed), candidate 2 passes 0/5 (11/9/12/12/12) — the doc's 17–23 and 9–12 ranges are exact. C2 unreversed for both (τ 0.333); C1 unreversed (τ 0.667); each candidate fails both surviving families independently of the 7 demoted cells, so the rescue set is verifiably empty. The demoted male cells were 0/5 for both (rbar 0.866–0.934 vs windows; 0.701–0.729 vs 0.753–0.787). Forensics artifacts carry 7. Bindings: 18/18 green and genuinely mutation-fragile. All 18 proposal tests pass in the CI-equivalent venv (0.53 s). Mutation battery (each applied to the real doc, suite rerun, tree restored;
The de-vacuousing holds (the ledger strip is proven before the prose assertions run). Fix A/B should extend the ledger + bindings to the corrected per-cell claims. 8. Hygiene: clean. 9. Text corrections (non-blocking beyond fixes A/B). (i) §4a's anchor sentence is garbled: "…the Mermin Table 1 payroll-savings ordering, in which PPI (−0.14) already ranks below NRA→70 (−0.50) is false — Mermin has PPI (−0.14) above NRA (−0.50) in signed savings…" — two drafts spliced; the intended (correct) content is that Mermin's signed order has PPI above NRA while the required magnitude reversal is the falsified hypothesis. Rewrite. (ii) §1/§2a/§8's "two empirical candidate confirmations" for C1 should note the two runs are bit-identical (one computation; the analytic Q5 leg is what carries the demotion — it does). (iii) v2 module docstring says the entry model "lands 0.467" at 25-34F where the committed q1 model value is 0.577 — stale figure in a non-amendment file; flag for the flip PR's hygiene sweep, no action here. Required before verification round:
The demotion set of 7 is ratifiable once the record says true things about each of the 7. The construction-attempt method was applied and the amendment survives it — including two levers its own table missed — which is precisely what the record should be able to say, in the proposer's corrected words rather than the referee's. |
… (referee 4953763322) Adversarial referee round (PR #169 comment 4953763322) ruled AMEND THE AMENDMENT; demotion set of 7 survives, grounds and candor corrected. Zero threshold movement; gates.yaml untouched; OC numbers unchanged (referee reproduced them exact). F1 (per-cell truth): the blanket "no candidate can clear any of the 7" was false -- candidate 1 PASSED coresident_spouse.65+|female 4/5 seeds. The 65+ quad now carries TWO machine reasons: cohort_vintage_hazard_frame_mismatch (married pair + coresident-65+|male, the stationary ceiling ~0.577 F / ~0.717 M the deployment cannot reach; married-65+|female caps 2-3/5 by ceiling-vs-window, Q1 entry-0 0.5767 vs Q6 entry-0.58 0.5728) and scored_duplicate_of_demoted_married_quantity (coresident-65+|female, deployed coresident/married ratio 1.0, straddles an easier window; demoted on duplicate/composition-blind grounds not impossibility). Per-seed pass records added to the doc + ledger + bindings; the c1 4/5 pass stated plainly. F2 (candor): the 48-cell surface is stated NOT KNOWN PASSABLE -- Q7 graded REFUTED for hh_size (all 5 cells 0/5 both candidates; "not closable by these two entry-state levers alone"); C2 is one bit-identical measurement (deployed cap_150k 16.7y vs Smith rank-4 1y; corrected-tail tau -1/3; robust only for the elim<->+2pp pair). Series forecast added: amendment-3 risks (5 hh_size + C2 cap_150k) pre-named, each reopenable only via the same forensics-then-ceremony standard. F3: section-3 sigma range corrected 3-8 -> 2.0-6.6 (0.11-0.44 ln vs 0.027-0.072 sigma; sub-3sigma end = the female cells that sometimes pass). F4: the referee's per-band-entry (0.4228/0.6004), entry-55 (0.4951/0.6090), and max-entry-bound construction-attempts incorporated into the 4c table (cite 4953763322). F9: section-4a Mermin sentence rewritten; C1 empirical legs qualified as one bit-identical measurement. Tests: 24 bindings (from 18), mutation-checked incl. the corrected sentences. Tier artifact 897 -> 903 (CI-equivalent recount). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Fixes round — AMEND THE AMENDMENT addressed (head
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| # | Finding | Fix | Bound by |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Per-cell impossibility false: candidate 1 passed coresident_spouse.65+|female 4/5 |
§4c rebuilt with per-cell grounds: the married pair + coresident_spouse.65+|male carry cohort_vintage_hazard_frame_mismatch (stationary ceiling ~0.577 F / ~0.717 M the deployment cannot reach; married-65+|female caps 2–3/5 by ceiling-vs-window, not the +0.12 magnitude); coresident_spouse.65+|female carries a new reason scored_duplicate_of_demoted_married_quantity (deployed coresident/married ratio 1.0 on every seed → duplicate of the demoted married quantity, straddling a slightly easier window; the 0.998 sampling-σ OC overprices a boundary cell). The 4/5 pass is stated plainly in §1/§4c/§6/§8. |
test_per_cell_pass_records_bound_to_committed_artifacts (recomputes every per-seed count from the cubes), test_65plus_two_machine_reasons_grounds_are_per_cell_true, test_ceiling_vs_window_65plus_female_arithmetic_bound (Q1 0.5767 / Q6 0.5728 / window edges / ratio 1.0), test_section8_history_figures_bound (asserts the false blanket sentence is absent) |
| F2 | Retained surface's passability oversold; Q7 REFUTED + C2 record omitted | §5/§9 + §8 now state the 48-cell surface is NOT KNOWN PASSABLE; Q7's REFUTED verbatim ("not closable by these two entry-state levers alone"; all 5 hh_size cells 0/5 both candidates); the full C2 record (bit-identical runs, cap_150k 16.7y vs Smith rank-4 1y, corrected-tail τ −1/3, pair-only robustness). Series forecast added: amendment-3 risks (5 hh_size + C2 cap_150k) pre-named, each reopenable only via the same forensics-then-ceremony standard. |
test_retained_surface_not_known_passable_candor, test_c2_record_bound_and_amendment3_forecast (recomputes the corrected-tail τ = −0.3333 and cap_150k 16.7 from the artifacts) |
| F3 | §3 "3–8σ" describes only the 18-24 pair | Corrected to the true per-cell 2.0σ–6.6σ (0.11–0.44 ln vs σ 0.027–0.072); the sub-3σ end is named as the female cells that sometimes pass | test_sigma_range_corrected_2_to_6p6 (recomputes the range from candidate scores × floor σ; asserts "3–8σ" absent) |
| F4 | Table missing the referee's constructions | §4c incorporates R1 per-band entry (0.4228/0.6004), R2 entry-55 (0.4951/0.6090), R3 max-entry bound, citing comment 4953763322; the achievable-set bound [0.42,0.58]F / [0.60,0.72]M vs needs ≥0.56–0.59F / ≥0.77–0.79M is stated | test_q6_contract_adjudication_says_65plus_unfixable_by_permitted_lever (asserts R1/R2 landed values + the comment id in §4c) |
| F9 | §4a Mermin sentence garbled; C1 legs | §4a rewritten (Mermin signed order has PPI above NRA; the falsified hypothesis is the magnitude reversal); C1's two candidate legs qualified as one bit-identical measurement, the analytic Q5 leg carrying the demotion | test_c1_non_reversal_bound_and_runs_bit_identical (asserts the two runs' fingerprints are byte-equal) |
Verification standard held. Bindings 24/24 green in the CI-equivalent venv (was 18; +6 for the per-cell/ceiling/σ/C2/candor evidence). Mutation battery re-run against the corrected sentences — all caught: reintroducing "no candidate can clear any of the 7" in §8, drifting the coresident-F pass 4→3, mislabeling the coresident-F reason, σ 2.0→3.0, cap_150k 16.7→15.0, the §7 roll-up, a ceiling window-edge digit, and a full removal of the "not known passable" candor. Tier manifest recounted CI-equivalent (artifact 897 → 903 = the +6 new bindings; tier_counts.json + README-tiers.md). gates.yaml byte-identical to master; the draft moves nothing.
Ready for the verification round.
Verification round — gate_w1 amendment 2 (head
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| Cell | c1 | c2 | Ledger/doc |
|---|---|---|---|
earnings_participation.18-24|female |
0/5 | 2/5 | ✓ |
earnings_participation.18-24|male |
0/5 | 0/5 | ✓ |
marital_share.married.65+|female |
2/5 [T,F,T,F,F] | 1/5 | ✓ |
marital_share.married.65+|male |
0/5 | 0/5 | ✓ |
coresident_spouse.65+|female |
4/5 [T,T,T,T,F], scores 0.1289/0.1645/0.1420/0.1563/0.1731 vs tol 0.168 | 2/5 | ✓ — stated plainly in §1/§4c/§6/§8 |
coresident_spouse.65+|male |
0/5 | 0/5 | ✓ |
- Stationary-ceiling arithmetic: Q1 entry-0 65+F = 0.5766873… → 0.5767 ✓; Q6 entry-0.58 = 0.5727633… → 0.5728 ✓; implied |slope| 0.0068/unit ≈ "~0.007" ✓; Q1 65+M = 0.7123 (the doc's "~0.717" is the referee's R3 max-entry bound; either reading leaves the male cells ≥4.5pp short of their windows). Married-F per-seed lower edges recompute to [0.5619, 0.5950, 0.5798, 0.5853, 0.5904] ✓ (= ledger); c1 deployed rbar 0.5696–0.5867 ("0.570–0.587" ✓) clears exactly the two edges below the ceiling → 2/5 ✓, c2 1/5 ✓; "caps 2–3/5, never 4" is consistent with the committed records and the edge geometry (three edges ≥ 0.5853). Male windows: married needs 0.7739–0.7869 ("≥0.774–0.787" ✓), coresident 0.7528–0.7727 ("≥0.753–0.773" ✓), 0/5 both candidates ✓.
- Duplication claim: deployed coresident/married ratio = 1.000000 on every seed, both candidates, both sexes ✓; both artifacts'
spec_resolutionsstatecoresident_spouseis RE-GENERATED as(terminal marital_state == married)✓; frame coresident/married ratio 0.9726–0.9918 ("~0.97–0.99" ✓); tolerance 0.168 vs 0.163 ✓ — the identical deployed value straddling the easier window at 4/5 while failing the married window at 2/5 is exactly what the cubes show. - 18-24: concept gap 22.1pp pooled / 17.3 F / 27.6 M, PSID 0.865 vs CPS 0.644, threshold flag true ✓; F support 0.8149 admits only the two loosest upper edges (0.8462/0.8495; others 0.7654–0.7929 = "0.765–0.793") ✓; M support 0.9287 vs ceilings 0.7496–0.8140 ("0.750–0.814") ✓. Divorce excess +0.120/+0.127, deployed/frame married 0.573/0.691 and 0.707/0.856, widowhood not realized ✓.
- Blanket-impossibility hunt: §8's banned sentence is gone and the binding forbids its return ✓; §1's and §3's group-level statements are true at group level and §3 explicitly disambiguates ("the group is not 'no candidate can clear any cell'") ✓; §5's "no more and no fewer" now carries the plus-clause and is true as a set identity ✓. Two per-cell-false survivors found — one blanket-impossibility rephrasing (§2c, fix 1) and one false retained-cell record (§3.1, fix 2).
2. Principle coherence — scored_duplicate_of_demoted_married_quantity is PRINCIPLED. Ruled explicitly: this is quantity-level deduplication, not demotion of an inconvenient passing cell, on four grounds. (a) The duplication is identity, not correlation: ratio exactly 1.0 on every committed seed for every committed candidate, because every committed deployment regenerates coresident as (married) — the gate was scoring one deployed number twice under two names, so demoting the married quantity while gating its alias would be a nominal demotion; the boundary principle survives restated at the quantity level (demote iff no permitted lever reaches the quantity; a bit-identical alias is the same quantity under another name). (b) Single mechanism, single disposition: the mechanism adjudicated unreachable (stationary ceiling vs frame window) is the same behind both cells; the coresident window is merely translated (frame ratio 0.97–0.99, tol 0.168 vs 0.163) so it happens to straddle the ceiling — keeping it gated would re-certify under the loose window what the tight window was just adjudicated to un-certify. (c) The forfeited pass is a false certificate: it would certify a 65+ composition the same run gets +0.120 divorced wrong, and its 0.998 half-normal OC is maximally mispriced for a boundary-straddling cell — the headline-vs-achievable defect this amendment exists to cure. (d) It cannot whittle: both candidates remain 0/5 on the residual 47 (recomputed below), so the demotion rescues nothing; and the ratio==1.0 condition is machine-checkable per candidate, which keeps the rider narrow — merely-correlated cells cannot be swept in under this reason. One forward-looking guard, non-blocking: the ground is deployment-contingent — if a future candidate models spousal coresidence separately (ratio ≠ 1.0), the duplicate ground dissolves for that world; re-gating is then available only via the standing ceremony path, which report-only + §10 already enforce. State it at flip time if convenient.
3. Candor bindings — VERIFIED. "Not known passable" present in §1/§5/§9 prose + §8 history (NOT KNOWN PASSABLE) ✓. Q7: pre_registration_proves_3_4_5plus false, joint construction clears only size-2 (score 0.1159 vs tol 0.123; sizes 1/3/4/5+ out), all five hh_size cells 0/5 for both candidates ✓, and both quotes are verbatim in gate_w1_forensics2_v1.json ("not closable by these two entry-state levers alone"; "a coresidence-composition repair beyond the initial roster") ✓. C2 record: fingerprint blocks bit-identical across the two candidate artifacts ✓ (C1 block too ✓); deltas elim 41.0 / cap_150k 16.745 / +2pp 5.705 / +1pp 2.551 ✓; Smith rank-4 cap_150k = 1 year ✓; corrected-tail order [cap_150k, elim, +1pp, +2pp] gives τ = (2−4)/6 = −1/3 vs required ✓; c2_note verbatim: "only the committed elimination<->+2pp pair is asserted robust, not the full C2 ordering" ✓. Series forecast pre-names the hh_size cells + C2 cap_150k, reopenable only via forensics-then-ceremony, with the C2 expiry condition (byte-carried panel in candidate 3) ✓. One harmonization note (N2) on "five" vs the ledger's four.
4. Bindings + mutations. 24/24 green in 0.52–0.57 s in a disposable env (fresh uv venv + editable install — the worktree/shared-venv trap avoided; test_contract_identity 8/8 green there too), and the +6 delta vs the proposal commit is exactly the six claimed tests (plus the telling rename of test_no_self_rescue_demoted_cells_were_failing_for_both_candidates to the corrected-wording binding). CI-equivalence: the CI invocation is plain pytest -q, and CI itself ran it green on this exact head (item 6); locally I additionally ran the full unit tier (223 passed / 2 skipped, 2,376 deselected = the full 2,601 collected), whose test_tier_policy validates the manifest against the complete pre-deselection inventory. Mutation battery — the fixes lane's eight re-run plus six of my own, each applied to the real doc, suite rerun, file restored, git diff clean and 24 green after:
| # | Mutation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| FM1 | reintroduce "no contract-consistent candidate can clear any of the 7 cells" in §8 | CAUGHT — test_section8_history_figures_bound |
| FM2 | ledger coresident-F pass 4→3 | CAUGHT — test_per_cell_pass_records… + test_65plus_two_machine_reasons… |
| FM3 | ledger coresident-F reason mislabeled to ceiling | CAUGHT |
| FM4 | σ multiple 2.0→3.0 | CAUGHT |
| FM5 | cap_150k 16.7→15.0 | CAUGHT |
| FM6 | §7 roll-up 48/84→49/83 | CAUGHT |
| FM7 | window-edge digit 0.5619→0.5629 | CAUGHT |
| FM8 | full removal of "not known passable" | CAUGHT |
| MM1 | §7 flip list: coresident-F reason flipped | CAUGHT — test_section7_flip_list…and_reasons |
| MM2 | ledger drops c2_cap_150k_adjacency from amendment-3 risks |
CAUGHT |
| MM3 | §4c prose-only ceiling tweak 0.5767→0.5776 (ledger intact) | MISSED |
| MM4 | §2c quad sentence strengthened to the original blocker's form | MISSED |
| MM5 | §1 "clears on 4 of 5"→"3 of 5" (§4c intact) | MISSED |
| MM6 | §3.1 "failing 5/5 for both candidates"→"4/5" | MISSED |
MM3/MM5 are the known, accepted limits of string-binding (the ledger is the bound record, and any one surviving occurrence satisfies a prose-presence assert — dropping only §5's "not known passable" instance is likewise tolerated while the full removal is caught) — no action. MM4/MM6 are not: they show the two false sentences below sit exactly where no binding reaches.
5. Invariants — ALL VERIFIED. gates.yaml byte-identical to origin/master (cmp clean); all 55 cells still gated; the diff touches exactly the 4 claimed files. OC: 53-cell p_seed 0.9219865769381 / p_gate 0.9480909495223 → 0.922/0.9481 = the floors headline ✓; 47-cell p_seed 0.9344024116784 / p_gate 0.9623420654131 → 0.9344/0.9623 ✓ (own half-normal implementation from frozen floor σ × locked tolerances); demoted passprobs 0.996536–0.998496 → 0.997/0.998 ✓. §7 flip text string-bound (all 7 cells, all 4 reasons, the coresident-F→duplicate mapping regex-bound); roll-ups 47/58, 1/1, 48/84 recompute from gates.yaml (52+25+0 = 77 report-only now ✓). No-self-rescue: c1 passes 0/5 on the residual 47 (per-seed fails 21/20/17/22/23), c2 0/5 (11/9/12/12/12), C2 unreversed both (τ 0.3333), C1 unreversed (τ 0.6667) — over-determined, rescue set verifiably empty ✓. §8 history draft: figures bound and recomputed; placeholder pattern matches the amendment-1 precedent; evidence chain (#162/#167/#163/#168 + 4953763322) correct; the entry is correctly NOT yet in gates.yaml. σ: ln misses 0.1092–0.4358 → 0.11–0.44 ✓, σ 0.0274–0.0722 → 0.027–0.072 ✓, per-seed multiple min 2.01 → 2.0 ✓; the stated 6.6 upper sits between the mean-of-seeds max (6.54) and the per-seed max (7.27) — the binding asserts exactly that bracketing, and the stated range understates the worst per-seed multiple (conservative direction; N3). Draw noise recomputes to 0.0024–0.0071 ("0.002–0.007") ✓. Tier manifest live-verified CI-equivalently: unit 225 / artifact 903 / integration_psid 797 / reproduction_legacy 520 / oracle_policyengine 156, total 2,601 — every tier exact; 897→903 = precisely the +6 new bindings; README table consistent.
6. Fresh CI on 8e713ef: mergeable: MERGEABLE, mergeStateStatus: CLEAN; gh pr checks 169 exit 0 — build, lint, pytest 3.11 (3m9s), pytest 3.13 (3m5s) all pass; both workflow runs confirmed on head_sha 8e713ef… via the API; deploy "skipping" is the draft norm. The PR remains a draft.
Required fixes (all text-tier; the demotion set, ledger, tests, and arithmetic need no change):
- §2c (introduced by the fixes commit — not present at
6e183a5): "These ceilings sit below the frame's pass windows (§4c), which is why the 65+ cells cannot be cleared by any permitted entry-state lever." False forcoresident_spouse.65+|femaleon the committed record — candidate 1 cleared it 4/5 under a permitted deployment, and the ceiling does not sit below that cell's window: the coresident-F lower edges are [0.5478, 0.5759, 0.5717, 0.5769, 0.5813], so the ~0.577–0.581 ceiling sits inside the window on 4 of 5 seeds — which is §4c's own story. This is the F1 defect class re-instantiated for the same cell, one section earlier. Rescope to the per-cell truth (e.g., "…which is why the married pair andcoresident_spouse.65+|malecannot be cleared by any permitted entry-state lever,married-65+|femalecaps at 2–3/5, and thecoresident-65+|femalewindow straddles the ceiling — §4c") and extend a binding to pin §2c (MM4 shows the sentence is currently unreachable by the suite). - §3.1: "the retained surface keeps cells failing 5/5 for both candidates —
hh_size_share.{1..5plus},marital_share.married.25-34|male,earnings_participation.35-44|female,marital_share.never_married.25-34|male" — false for the last cell: candidate 1 passedmarital_share.never_married.25-34|maleon seed 1 (score 0.1707 vs tol 0.192; flags [T,F,F,F,F] = 4/5-fail; candidate 2 is 0/5). The sentence was inherited verbatim from finding 1 of the adversarial round (4953763322) — the round's own retained-surface record carried a per-cell inaccuracy, and this ceremony's standard applies to it too. The whittling conclusion is untouched (a 1/5-passing cell retained gated is still retention against self-interest; its Q6 CPS-anchored entry lever is still live). Correct to the per-cell record and bind it (MM6 shows §3.1 is unbound). The other three "5/5" claims (§5/§8/§9 — hh_size-only) recompute true and need no change. - PR body refresh before ratify-by-merge. The body still describes the pre-fix state: one machine reason for the whole 65+ quad (no
scored_duplicate_of_demoted_married_quantity), "18 bindings", "artifact 879 → 897", and none of the mandated candor (no per-cell pass records, no "not known passable", no series forecast). Under ratify-by-merge the body becomes the permanent merge-commit message; amendment 1's fixes round included exactly this "PR-body precision corrections" step. Bring the body to the fixed state (two-reason table, coresident-F 4/5 stated plainly, 24 bindings, artifact 903, candor + forecast).
Non-blocking notes: N1 — §5's parenthetical enumerates 5 of the 6 unreachable cells (omits earnings_participation.18-24|female, whose ≥4/5-unreachability §4b establishes: the 0.8149 support fits only the two loosest windows, 0.846/0.850, exceeding the other three upper edges 0.765–0.793 → caps 2/5); the set identity is true, the enumeration is short one example — tidy with fix 1 or at flip. N2 — prose says "the five hh_size cells" as amendment-3 risks while the bound ledger (and fix B's own wording) names four (1/3/4/5plus; size-2 is the one cell Q7's joint levers clear); conservative direction, and §8's parenthetical facts are true of all five — harmonize prose vs ledger at flip time. N3 — σ 6.6 upper: see item 5; no action. N4 — earnings_participation.35-44|female per-seed scores are bit-identical between the two candidate runs (0.1168/0.1388/0.0965/0.1000/0.0994), i.e. the interior earnings machinery was byte-carried like the fingerprint panel; harmless here, but the same candidate-3 expiry logic the doc applies to C2 would apply if a third identical vector appears.
The corrected grounds are true, the boundary principle survives its own exception (ruled principled above), the candor is real and bound, and every number in the record is the number in the artifacts. Fix the two sentences, refresh the body, and this is ratifiable — the verification round should then have nothing left to say, which is the point.
…ndings (verification 4954135376)
The verification round (comment 4954135376, verdict FURTHER FIXES) ruled the
scored_duplicate_of_demoted_married_quantity ground PRINCIPLED but caught two
per-cell-false survivors introduced/inherited by the fixes commit, plus a stale
body and one hh_size count (note N2).
- §2c: the fixes commit re-instantiated the F1 blanket ("the 65+ cells cannot be
cleared by any permitted entry-state lever") — false for
coresident_spouse.65+|female, which candidate 1 clears 4/5 because the ~0.577
stationary ceiling sits INSIDE that cell's lower window on 4 of 5 seeds
(lower edges [0.5478, 0.5759, 0.5717, 0.5769, 0.5813]). Rewritten to per-cell
truth: ceiling-below-window holds for the married pair + coresident male; the
coresident-female window straddles the ceiling, which is why its ground is
duplication, not unreachability. Bound by
test_section2c_no_blanket_65plus_impossibility_coresident_inside_window (MM4).
- §3.1: dropped marital_share.never_married.25-34|male from the "5/5 for both
candidates" list — candidate 1 clears it 1/5 (seed 1 0.1707 vs tol 0.192,
flags [T,F,F,F,F]). The complete gate-eligible 5/5-fail retained set is
hh_size_share.{1..5plus} + marital_share.married.25-34|male +
earnings_participation.35-44|female; never_married is retained a fortiori.
Bound by test_section3_1_5of5_fail_list_per_cell_true_excludes_never_married
(MM6).
- §4c: folded the verifier's principled ruling + deployment-contingent guard into
the duplicate ground — ratio==1.0 is a machine-checkable identity per candidate
(both deployments' spec_resolutions regenerate coresident_spouse as
(terminal marital_state == married), bit-identical); the ground dissolves for a
future candidate modeling coresidence separately, and re-gating then requires
the standing forensics-then-ceremony path. Cites comment 4954135376.
- N2: reconciled the amendment-3 hh_size risk count to FOUR (sizes 1/3/4/5+) in
§1/§5/§8/§9 prose — Q7's joint lever clears only size-2. All five hh_size cells
still fail 5/5. Bound in test_c2_record_bound_and_amendment3_forecast.
Frontmatter + §11 checklist updated to record the verification round and this
fixes-2 revision.
Bindings 24 -> 26; artifact tier 903 -> 905, total 2,601 -> 2,603
(tests/tier_counts.json + tests/README-tiers.md, enforced by test_tier_policy).
Mutation battery re-run against the corrected sentences: prior FM1-8 / MM1-2 stay
caught, and the MM4 / MM6 analogues the verification round found unbound are now
caught. gates.yaml byte-identical to origin/master; the draft moves nothing.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Fixes 2 — verification round (4954135376, FURTHER FIXES) addressed (head
|
| # | Item (verification round) | Fix | New / extended binding |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | §2c blanket — the fixes commit re-instantiated the F1 blanket ("the 65+ cells cannot be cleared by any permitted entry-state lever"), false for coresident_spouse.65+|female |
Rewritten to per-cell truth: the ceiling-below-window relation holds for the married pair + coresident male; for coresident female the ~0.577 ceiling sits inside the (lower) window on 4 of 5 seeds (lower edges [0.5478, 0.5759, 0.5717, 0.5769, 0.5813]) — which is why candidate 1 clears it 4/5 and its ground is duplication, not unreachability |
test_section2c_no_blanket_65plus_impossibility_coresident_inside_window — recomputes from candidate 1's cube that the deployed value (== married rbar, ratio 1.0) is inside the coresident-F window on exactly 4/5, forbids the blanket + its paraphrases, requires the per-cell correction. MM4 now CAUGHT. |
| 2 | §3.1 false 5/5 — marital_share.never_married.25-34|male listed as failing 5/5 for both candidates (candidate 1 passes seed 1, 0.1707 vs tol 0.192, [T,F,F,F,F]) |
Removed from the 5/5-fail list; the complete gate-eligible 5/5-fail retained set is hh_size_share.{1..5plus} + marital_share.married.25-34|male + earnings_participation.35-44|female (verified from both cubes). never_married.25-34|male is retained a fortiori (a cell candidate 1 clears 1/5, retained against self-interest), its Q6 lever still live |
test_section3_1_5of5_fail_list_per_cell_true_excludes_never_married — parses the §3.1 5/5-fail clause, forbids never_married.25-34|male in it, recomputes the genuine 5/5-fail set from both cubes, pins the "5/5" count. MM6 (both the reintroduce-membership and the 5/5→4/5 count variants) now CAUGHT. |
| 3 | PR body stale (single 65+ reason, "18 bindings", "879→897", no candor) | Body rewritten via gh pr edit --body-file: two-machine-reason table, coresident-F 4/5 stated plainly, 26 bindings, artifact tier 903→905, not-known-passable candor + series forecast, and the full ceremony history (adversarial 4953763322 → fixes 4953911698 → verification 4954135376 → this round) |
n/a (permanent squash message) |
| 4 | Principled ruling into §4c's duplicate ground | Added the verifier's ruling + deployment-contingent guard: ratio == 1.0 is a machine-checkable identity per candidate (both deployments' spec_resolutions regenerate coresident_spouse as (terminal marital_state == married), bit-identical); the ground dissolves for a future candidate that models coresidence separately (ratio ≠ 1.0), and re-gating then requires the standing forensics-then-ceremony path — citing comment 4954135376 |
test_65plus_two_machine_reasons_... + test_ceiling_vs_window_... (ratio 1.0 per seed both candidates) |
| 5 | N2 — prose "five" vs ledger "four" hh_size amendment-3 risks | Reconciled to four (sizes 1/3/4/5+) in §1/§5/§8/§9: Q7's joint lever clears only size-2 (0.1159 vs tol 0.123), so only these four are at risk. All five hh_size cells still fail 5/5 (the fact is retained) |
Folded into test_c2_record_bound_and_amendment3_forecast — the ledger names exactly the four, Q7 clears size-2 (recomputed), prose names the four sizes |
Mutation battery (each applied to the real doc, suite rerun, file restored, tree clean + 26 green after):
| # | Mutation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| FM1 | reintroduce "clear any of the 7" in §8 | CAUGHT |
| FM2 | ledger coresident-F pass 4→3 | CAUGHT |
| FM3 | ledger coresident-F reason mislabeled to ceiling | CAUGHT |
| FM4 | σ multiple 2.0→3.0 | CAUGHT |
| FM5 | cap_150k 16.7→15.0 | CAUGHT |
| FM6 | §7 roll-up 48/84→49/83 | CAUGHT |
| FM7 | window-edge digit 0.5619→0.5629 | CAUGHT |
| FM8 | full removal of "not known passable" (all case variants) | CAUGHT |
| MM1 | §7 flip list: coresident-F reason flipped | CAUGHT |
| MM2 | ledger drops c2_cap_150k_adjacency |
CAUGHT |
| MM4 | §2c re-blanketed to the original blocker form | CAUGHT (was MISSED) |
| MM6a | §3.1 reintroduce never_married.25-34|male into the 5/5-fail list |
CAUGHT (was MISSED) |
| MM6b | §3.1 count word 5/5 → 4/5 | CAUGHT (was MISSED) |
(MM3/MM5 — prose-only ceiling tweak with the ledger intact, and a single-instance "4 of 5"→"3 of 5" with §4c intact — remain the accepted limits of string-binding, per the verification round; no action.)
Bindings 24 → 26. Tier manifest refreshed CI-equivalent: artifact 903 → 905 (= the +2 new bindings), total 2,601 → 2,603 (tests/tier_counts.json + tests/README-tiers.md, enforced by test_tier_policy against the full pre-deselection inventory). The full always-runnable suite (unit + artifact) is green in a disposable env (1,089 passed / 41 skipped / 1,473 deselected; test_contract_identity green there). black -l 79 + ruff clean.
gates.yaml byte-identical to origin/master; the draft moves nothing. The PR remains a draft — ready for the re-verification round.
Re-verification round — gate_w1 amendment 2 fixes 2 (head
|
…t-only (ratified c50f8bb) (#174) Applies the ratified section-7 flip text 1:1 to gates.gate_w1: the six family-A cells move from view tolerances to report_only with per-cell machine reasons and retained_tolerances (zero threshold movement); the faithful-candidate OC updates to the 47-cell surface (0.9344/0.9623); the fresh-run cube shape narrows to [20, 47, 5]; family C demotes the C1 (ppi_nra) fingerprint to report-only (fingerprint_reversal_not_realized) and gates C2 alone; covers/certification_scope roll-ups move to 48 gated / 84 report-only; the amendment-2 history entry is appended with the full five-round ceremony record. Partition-binding tests polarity-flip to the amended surface; the proposal's untouched-guard becomes the section-7 subset master-compare (no sibling gate moves). Ceremony: adversarial 4953763322 (AMEND) -> fixes 4953911698 -> verification 4954135376 (FURTHER FIXES) -> fixes-2 4954294003 -> re-verification 4954346300 (RATIFY AS-IS); ratified by merge of PR #169 (squash c50f8bb). Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
gate_w1 amendment 2 — the family-A concept cells and the C1 fingerprint (proposal, draft)
Ceremony stage: PROPOSAL (draft). This moves no threshold and edits no
gates.yamlcell —gates.yamlis byte-identical toorigin/master. Theprospective flip happens in a separate ratifying PR, only after this ceremony
(proposal → adversarial referee → fixes → verification → ratify-by-merge → flip)
clears. Mirrors the amendment-1 precedent (#164 / #165).
Doc:
docs/amendments/gate_w1_amendment_2_family_a_concept_cells.md.Ceremony history
coresident_spouse.65+|female4/5 — and that the retained surface oversold its own passability.scored_duplicate_of_demoted_married_quantityground is ruled principled — but the fixes commit introduced one re-blanketed §2c impossibility sentence (false for the same coresident-F cell) and inherited one per-cell-false §3.1 retained-cell record, and the PR body still described the pre-fix state.hh_sizerisk count to four (verifier note N2), and refreshes this body.What it proposes
W1 forensics 2 (grading 4953311492, verdict "gate_w1 remains unpassable as amended — amendment 2 precedes candidate 3") established that three cell groups on the post-amendment-1 55-cell surface cannot be cleared at the gate-relevant ≥4-of-5-seed level by any contract-consistent candidate. This proposal demotes 7 cells to report-only, each with a per-cell machine reason true on the committed record:
fingerprint.ppi_nrafingerprint_reversal_not_realizedearnings_participation.18-24|{female,male}population_concept_delta_head_spouse_universemarital_share.married.65+|{f,m},coresident_spouse.65+|malecohort_vintage_hazard_frame_mismatchcoresident_spouse.65+|femalescored_duplicate_of_demoted_married_quantitycoresident_spouseis regenerated as(terminal marital_state == married)(deployed ratio 1.0 every seed, bit-identicalspec_resolutions), so it scores the same deployed value as the demoted married quantity against a lower window that the ~0.577 ceiling sits inside on 4/5 seeds. Demoted as a duplicate of a demoted quantity, not on impossibility.Two machine reasons for the 65+ quad, not one — the verification round ruled the duplicate ground principled:
ratio == 1.0is a machine-checkable identity per candidate (one deployed number scored twice under two names), and the ground is deployment-contingent — a future candidate that models spousal coresidence separately (ratio ≠ 1.0) dissolves it, and re-gating is then available only via the standing forensics-then-ceremony path.OC consequence (recomputed — differs from amendment 1)
Amendment 1 left family A byte-identical. This amendment removes 6 cells from family A itself, so the family-A faithful-candidate OC is recomputed on the residual 47-cell surface:
The crux (§3): the headline OC prices sampling noise, not concept/vintage bias — the 6 demoted family-A cells rate ~0.997–0.998 passable under the half-normal model, yet the forensics proves no contract-consistent candidate reaches that idealization (a 2.0σ–6.6σ systematic bias; the sub-3σ end is exactly the female cells that sometimes clear tolerance). Overall gate OC moves from an achievable 0 to 0.9623 × I(C2) on the residual 48-cell surface (47 family-A joints + the C2 fingerprint). 55 → 48 gated, 77 → 84 report-only.
Not known passable + series forecast
The amended 48-cell surface removes proven-unreachable cells; it does not establish a passable surface, and "0.9623 × I(C2)" must not be read as I(C2) being a live coin-flip. Two committed unpassability risks, forecast as amendment-3 candidates now:
cap_150kadjacency — both candidate runs bit-identical, deployedcap_150k16.7 years vs Smith's rank-4 1 year, τ 0.333, corrected-tail τ −1/3. C2 is retained (its failure is not yet proven candidate-independent), but the disclosure is mandatory.Each is reopenable only via the same forensics-then-ceremony standard, never a bare demotion.
No-self-rescue (over-determined, rescue set empty)
Both committed candidates STILL FAIL on the amended 48-cell surface: candidate 1 (#162) and candidate 2 (#167) each pass 0/5 family-A seeds on the residual 47 cells and fail family C (C2 does not reverse, τ 0.333). The demotion rescues neither — over-determined via both surviving families. Per-cell truth: the demoted male cells are 0/5 for both candidates; the female cells sometimes passed (coresident-65+|female 4/5 c1), but removing a sometimes-passed cell cannot turn a 0/5 into ≥4/5 because other retained cells fail every seed.
Tests / verification
tests/test_gate_w1_amendment2_proposal.py— 26 bindings (artifact tier) cross-check every load-bearing figure against the frozen artifacts (forensics 1/2, floors, both candidates, gates.yaml), recompute the OC on both surfaces, the per-seed no-self-rescue, and the per-cell pass records; they string-bind the §7 flip text, the three partition roll-ups, and the §8 history, and check prose assertions outside the ledger fence (de-vacuoused).coresident_spouse.65+|female, the two 65+ machine reasons, the ceiling-vs-window arithmetic, and the corrected 2.0–6.6σ range.test_section2c_no_blanket_65plus_impossibility_coresident_inside_window(MM4) pins §2c to the cube — the ~0.577 ceiling sits inside the coresident-F window on 4/5 seeds, and the false blanket cannot return;test_section3_1_5of5_fail_list_per_cell_true_excludes_never_married(MM6) pins §3.1's 5/5-fail list to the cubes and forbids re-addingmarital_share.never_married.25-34|male(candidate 1 clears it 1/5). Both mutation analogues the verification round found unbound are now caught.gates.yamlstill gates all 55 cells (C1 + the 6 family-A cells gate-eligible), byte-identical to master.artifact903 → 905 (= the +2 new bindings), total 2,601 → 2,603 (tests/tier_counts.json+tests/README-tiers.md, enforced bytest_tier_policy). Mutation battery re-run against the corrected sentences — the prior FM1–8 / MM1–2 set stays caught and the MM4 / MM6 analogues are now caught.Ceremony checklist
gates.yamledit; no threshold moved.gates.yamlper §7 and append the §8 history entry.Evidence chain: candidate 1 (#162), candidate 2 (#167), W1 forensics 1 (#163), W1 forensics 2 (#168); amendment 1 (#164 / #165).
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