Endogenous Industry Heat by LukasFrankenQ · Pull Request #1943 · PyPSA/pypsa-eur

LukasFrankenQ · 2025-12-11T15:30:52Z

Adds industry process heat demands heat100-200, heat200-500 and heat>500 by subtracting them from industry biomass and methane demands

if

config["sector"]["industry_t"]["endogen"] == True.

Temperature splits are process-aware, based on Fraunhofer ISI research Fleiter et al. (2025), Hydrogen Infrastructure in the Future CO2-Neu....

The PR does not cover steelworks. Its endogenisation is in a separate PR.

Changes to the Model

With industry heat endogenous, all existing industry-related components remain, heat demands are purely subtracted from biomass and methane industry demands, and are added as separate loads with the respective supply opportunities.

The changes to prepare_sector_network are largely identical to the previous PR by @lisazeyen, and the heat generation technologies added are the same. The temperature bands are chosen to match potentially interesting alternative renewable heat supply such as solar thermal and geothermal, which could be added to the model if desired.

The logic for exogenous heating remains untouched. There was a very sensible proposition by @koen-vg to set the exogenous heat supply mix in the config, as is done with industry production pathways. However, the volume of content this approach would add to the config was, in my estimation, too large.
Therefore, this PR introduces a new rule that builds (planning-horizons–unaware) heat-endogenous ratios and then simply infers endogenous industry demands (including the temperature bands) in build_industry_energy_demand_per_node, following the same logic as exogenous demand using ratios_intermediate.
As a result, industry_energy_demands_per_node consists essentially two concatenated dataframes. Level 0 in columns == "exogenous" contains the old dataframe and == "endogenous" is the new one.
Based on the endogenisation-switch in config, prepare_sector_network pulls the respective columns.

Towards Validation

Comparing exogenous and endogenous 2030 industry demands shows that the PR removes the vast majority of (industry) solid biomass and most of (industry) methane demand. Exogenous heat presumes electrification, likely explaining why the total energy demand is lower in the exogenous case.

The PR uses Fleiter et al. (2025) to estimate temperature band distributions for each industry process, and uses alternative process-specific sources to fill data gaps in between. Again, no steelworks in this PR.

These are very distinct between industries; however, they still yield largely similar temperature distributions between countries:

Spatial heterogeneity might only manifest in higher spatial resolutions.

Here, and in the previous iterations, we are aiming to align with Agora's estimate of industry heating demand at a total of around 1850 TWh/a:

Considering we are not including steelworks, we are doing quite well:

ToDos and Food for Thought

Need to ensure process emissions, HVC disaggregation, current electricity, etc. are synergising correctly with current methods.
After talking to @Irieo, it could be very valuable to either introduce a switch that endogenises only a subset of industries, or even represent each industry sector individually.
Think about synergy with @toniseibold’s steel endogenisation and the addition of individual cement production sites.
Other supply technologies: currently, we only consider electrified heating in heat100-200 and low-temperature heat, but in some sectors, electrification of higher-temperature demands is feasible.
As noted by @toniseibold, there appears to be some inconsistency in the biomass boiler's efficiency.

Happy about any feedback, and all the best,
Lukas

@lisazeyen @millingermarkus @Irieo @koen-vg @toniseibold @fneum @bobbyxng @p-glaum

PS: Are the pictures readable, or do they throw an error when clicked on?

Checklist

I tested my contribution locally and it works as intended.
Code and workflow changes are sufficiently documented.
[N/A] Changed dependencies are added to pixi.toml (using pixi add <dependency-name>).
Changes in configuration options are added in config/config.default.yaml.
Changes in configuration options are documented in doc/configtables/*.csv.
For new data sources or versions, these instructions <https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/data_sources.html>_ have been followed.
A release note doc/release_notes.rst is added.

…ric arc

Endogenous industry sector ratios: - Swap the Pulp/Paper PRODCOM mappings, which were crossed (pulp -> paper products, paper -> pulp products). - Fix the pharmaceuticals backup share: heat>500 was 1.0, making the row sum to 2.0; set to 0.0 so the bands sum to 1.0. - Override the Fleiter 2025 Mechanical pulp row (100% heat<100) with 100% heat100-200, reflecting TMP/CTMP refiner steam at 130-170 C (Rehfeldt et al. 2018). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

LukasFrankenQ · 2026-06-16T20:36:39Z

@fneum @Irieo @toniseibold I think this is now in a quite good state, and could maybe even be merged, some notes:

@Irieo By default it now applies endogenous heating to all industry sectors (except steel), but the config allows them to be switched on or off individually, so you could do an endogenous heat treatment of any subset of industry sectors.
@fneum A central point we had talked about half a year ago was about the accounting of biomass emissions--that should now be fixed, biomass boilers are wired directly to spatial.biomass.
@toniseibold There are definitely some conflicts with endogenous cement, but I would argue its most practical to deal with it after of our PRs is merged, if that is cool :P [ insert meme about first-PR-to-merge ]
@lkstrp there is this weird deletion of a full file, please let me know if that is a concern, I am being told that its okay

w-tusche

Thanks for working on this and pushing it further!

Upon testing the PR code for an own project I ran in to the problem that options and spatial in the new functions in prepare_sector_network.py are global. My suggestion is to pass these as arguments to the functions (as is done for options in the other functions in prepare_sector_network.py and as I suggest in PR2232 for spatial).

Some further comments on a stray pass and a minor unnecessarily complex if condition.

bus2 and bus3 are not consistent throught out the newly added links:
Sometimes it is:
bus2="co2 atmosphere",
bus3=spatial.co2.nodes,
(e.g. ["industry_t"]["heat100-200"]["biomass"])

other times:
bus2=spatial.co2.nodes,
bus3="co2 atmosphere",
(e.g., "heat200-500" biomass and methane links)

w-tusche · 2026-07-13T13:55:24Z

+    """
+
+    logger.info("Add industry heat in the temperature band 100-200 °C.")
+    pass


Function stops here, remove pass.

w-tusche · 2026-07-13T13:58:43Z

        )


+def add_t_industry100_200(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run):


Add options, spatial as parameters:
def add_t_industry100_200(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run, options, spatial):

w-tusche · 2026-07-13T14:00:30Z

+
+    if (
+        options["industry_t"]["heat100-200"]["biomass"]
+        or not options["industry_t"]["endogen"]


Cleanup, or not is not required, as "endogen" is required for "heat100-200".

if options["industry_t"]["heat100-200"]["biomass"]:

w-tusche · 2026-07-13T14:01:16Z

+        options["industry_t"]["heat100-200"]["biomass"]
+        or not options["industry_t"]["endogen"]
+    ):
+        logger.info(


Open question

w-tusche · 2026-07-13T14:02:40Z

+        )
+
+
+def add_t_industry200_500(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run):


Add options, spatial as parameters:

def add_t_industry200_500(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run, options, spatial):

w-tusche · 2026-07-13T14:06:44Z

+            p_nom_extendable=True,
+            p_min_pu=must_run,
+            efficiency=costs.at["direct firing gas", "efficiency"],
+        )


It seems like the lifetime is missing. (lifetime=costs.at["direct firing gas", "lifetime"],)

w-tusche · 2026-07-13T14:08:53Z

+
+        must_run = options["industry_t"]["must_run"]
+
+        add_t_industry100_200(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run)


Pass arguments options and spatial add_t_industry100_200(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run, options, spatial)

w-tusche · 2026-07-13T14:09:08Z

+        must_run = options["industry_t"]["must_run"]
+
+        add_t_industry100_200(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run)
+        add_t_industry200_500(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run)


Pass arguments options and spatial add_t_industry200_500(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run, options, spatial)

w-tusche · 2026-07-13T14:09:21Z

+
+        add_t_industry100_200(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run)
+        add_t_industry200_500(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run)
+        add_t_industry500(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run)


Pass arguments options and spatial add_t_industry500(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run, options, spatial)

LukasFrankenQ added 11 commits December 8, 2025 15:45

split industry heat demands into temperature bands

e07ca33

aligned rule order with graph structure

9e55ec9

expanded industry heat endogenisation to per_node_today

5e9fd11

moved heat band calculation to dedicated endogenous script

9689d90

finalised move of endogenous heat shares to dedicated script

6cbe89b

added docstrings

1cf0468

merged exogenous and endogenous ratios into nodal industry demands

6658506

towards integration of endogenous heat in prepare_sector_network

df2d482

added endogenous industry option to config

3247093

fixed bugs in prepare_sector_network

faea957

system averages taken for unavailable product-demand combinations

699332c

LukasFrankenQ added the enhancement label Dec 17, 2025

LukasFrankenQ and others added 16 commits December 18, 2025 16:00

endogenous ind heat ratios now includes HVC recycling and DRI + Elect…

e02fb59

…ric arc

fixed bug that caused reaccuring carrier columns

219c3af

endogenous heating no longer takes methanol, etc from exogenous demands

ab54d15

harmonised industry heat supply naming

df8f88e

added colors for industry heat bands

aa8026a

Merge branch 'master' into endog

93bd62f

merged with upstream

d4296e6

adjusted licensing

0f8a8cc

merged with origin

4b14728

Merge remote-tracking branch 'upstream/master' into endog

53d2b98

docs: add release note for endogenous industry process heat

a67060f

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

rewired industry biomass boilers to draw from spatial.biomass

a041a0d

slight code simplification

69c7975

fixed process emission treatment

6384b20

added industry-sector-specific endogenous heat

3e32e3c

LukasFrankenQ marked this pull request as ready for review June 16, 2026 20:30

w-tusche suggested changes Jul 13, 2026

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Endogenous Industry Heat#1943

Endogenous Industry Heat#1943
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		)


		def add_t_industry100_200(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run):

		)


		def add_t_industry200_500(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run):


		must_run = options["industry_t"]["must_run"]

		add_t_industry100_200(n, nodes, industrial_demand, costs, must_run)

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Changes to the Model

Towards Validation

ToDos and Food for Thought

Checklist

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