oipd computes the probabilities implied by the options market for an asset’s future prices.
- It does this by taking listed options data, fitting an arbitrage-free implied volatility curve or surface, and then transforming that fitted object into a probability distribution over future asset prices. In practice, that provides two core capabilities in one library:
- Volatility modeling: fit single-expiry smiles and multi-expiry volatility surfaces for pricing and risk work.
Probability extraction: compute market-implied probability distributions, cumulative probabilities, quantiles, and distributional moments.
Checklist
oipd computes the probabilities implied by the options market for an asset’s future prices.
Probability extraction: compute market-implied probability distributions, cumulative probabilities, quantiles, and distributional moments.
Checklist
masterbranch