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lectures/_static/quant-econ.bib

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chapter = {23},
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year = {2018}
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}
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@article{hicks1937mr,
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author = {John R. Hicks},
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title = {Mr. {K}eynes and the ``{C}lassics''; A Suggested Interpretation},
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journal = {Econometrica},
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volume = {5},
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number = {2},
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pages = {147--159},
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year = {1937}
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}
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@article{tobin1992old,
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author = {James Tobin},
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title = {An Old {K}eynesian Counterattacks},
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journal = {Eastern Economic Journal},
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volume = {18},
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number = {4},
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pages = {387--400},
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year = {1992}
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}
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@article{hansen1983stochastic,
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author = {Lars Peter Hansen and Kenneth J. Singleton},
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title = {Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns},
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journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
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volume = {91},
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number = {2},
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pages = {249--265},
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year = {1983}
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}
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@article{Weil_1989,
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author = {Philippe Weil},
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title = {The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle},
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journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
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volume = {24},
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number = {3},
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pages = {401--421},
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year = {1989}
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}
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@article{hansen1995discounted,
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author = {Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent and Thomas D. Tallarini, Jr.},
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title = {Robust Permanent Income and Pricing},
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journal = {Review of Economic Studies},
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volume = {66},
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number = {4},
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pages = {873--907},
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year = {1999}
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}
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@book{Sargent_Stachurski_2025,
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author = {Thomas J. Sargent and John Stachurski},
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title = {Dynamic Programming: Finite States},
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publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
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year = {2025},
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doi = {10.1017/9781009540780}
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}
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@unpublished{piazzesi2015trend,
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author = {Monika Piazzesi and Juliana Salomao and Martin Schneider},
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title = {Trend and Cycle in Bond Premia},
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note = {Working paper, Stanford University, March 2015},
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year = {2015}
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}
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@article{hansen2020twisted,
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author = {Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent},
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title = {Macroeconomic Uncertainty Prices when Beliefs are Tenuous},
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journal = {Journal of Econometrics},
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volume = {223},
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number = {1},
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pages = {222--250},
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year = {2021}
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}
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@article{szoke2022estimating,
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author = {B{\'a}lint Sz{\H{o}}ke},
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title = {Estimating Robustness},
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journal = {Journal of Economic Theory},
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volume = {199},
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pages = {105225},
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year = {2022},
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doi = {10.1016/j.jet.2021.105225}
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}

lectures/doubts_or_variability.md

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For origins of the names **multiplier** and **constraint** preferences, see {cite:t}`HansenSargent2001`.
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The risk-sensitive preference specification used here comes from {cite:t}`hansen1995discounted`, which adjusts specifications used earlier by
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{cite:t}`jacobson1973optimal`, {cite:t}`Whittle_1981`, and {cite:t}`Whittle_1990` to accommodate discounting in a way that preserves time-invariant optimal decision rules.
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{cite:t}`Jacobson_73`, {cite:t}`Whittle_1981`, and {cite:t}`Whittle_1990` to accommodate discounting in a way that preserves time-invariant optimal decision rules.
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```
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*Type I agent (Kreps--Porteus--Epstein--Zin--Tallarini)* with

lectures/risk_aversion_or_mistaken_beliefs.md

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Robust control theory formalises this idea by having the agent optimally distort probability assessments toward a worst-case scenario, producing belief distortions that look like the "mistakes" identified by PSS but that arise from a coherent response to model uncertainty rather than from ignorance.
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(See {doc}`Robustness <rob>` for the decision-theoretic foundations of multiplier and constraint preferences.)
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(See {doc}`Robustness <robustness>` for the decision-theoretic foundations of multiplier and constraint preferences.)
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### Hansen's dubious agent
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- {doc}`Likelihood Ratio Processes <intermediate:likelihood_ratio_process>` develops the mathematical properties of likelihood ratios, the central device organising this lecture, including their martingale structure and statistical applications.
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- {doc}`Divergence Measures <intermediate:divergence_measures>` covers Kullback-Leibler divergence and relative entropy in detail, providing the information-theoretic foundations for the entropy constraints used in the robust control sections.
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- {doc}`Affine Models of Asset Prices <intermediate:affine_risk_prices>` extends the linear Gaussian state-space framework to affine and exponential-quadratic stochastic discount factors, developing risk-neutral pricing formulas closely related to those derived here.
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- {doc}`Robustness <rob>` introduces the multiplier and constraint preferences that formalise fear of model misspecification, providing the decision-theoretic foundations for the Hansen and Szőke worst-case analysis developed here.
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- {doc}`Robustness <robustness>` introduces the multiplier and constraint preferences that formalise fear of model misspecification, providing the decision-theoretic foundations for the Hansen and Szőke worst-case analysis developed here.
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- {doc}`The Hansen-Jagannathan Bound <hansen_jagannathan_1991>` derives bounds on the stochastic discount factor from asset return data, offering an empirical discipline on the likelihood ratios and risk prices studied in this lecture.

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