Add three lectures on contract theory and one lecture on survey data and robustness (#343)

* Tom's April 3 edits of Phelan-Townsend DP^2 lecture

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* Tom's second May 21 edits

* Tom's May 22 edits of toc and two lectures

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---------

Co-authored-by: thomassargent30 <ts43@nyu.edu>

Author: HumphreyYang

lectures/_static/lecture_specific/subjective_beliefs_business_cycles/bbh_macro_quarterly.csv

@@ -1320,6 +1320,37 @@ @book{Roman2005
   publisher={Springer}
 }
 
+
+@article{Spear_Srivastava_87,
+  author   = {Stephen E. Spear and Sanjay Srivastava},
+  title    = {{On Repeated Moral Hazard with Discounting}},
+  journal  = {Review of Economic Studies},
+  year     = 1987,
+  volume   = {54},
+  number   = {4},
+  pages    = {599-617},
+  month    = {},
+  keywords = {},
+  doi      = {10.2307/2297484},
+  abstract = {In this paper, we analyze optimal contracts in an infinitely repeated agency model in which both the principal and agent discount the future. We show that there is a stationary representation of the optimal contract when the agent's conditional discounted expected utility is used as a state variable. This representation reduces the multi-period problem to a static variational problem which can be analyzed using standard variational techniques. This reduction is used to obtain several properties of the contract.},
+  url      = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v54y1987i4p599-617..html}
+}
+
+@article{Phelan_Townsend_91,
+  author   = {Christopher Phelan and Robert M. Townsend},
+  title    = {{Computing Multi-Period, Information-Constrained Optima}},
+  journal  = {Review of Economic Studies},
+  year     = 1991,
+  volume   = {58},
+  number   = {5},
+  pages    = {853-881},
+  month    = {},
+  keywords = {},
+  doi      = {10.2307/2297941},
+  abstract = {This paper presents a detailed theoretical derivation and justification for methods used to compute solutions to a multi-period (including infinite-period), continuum-agent, unobservedeffort economy. Actual solutions are displayed illustrating cross-sectional variability in consumption and labour effort in the population at a point in time and variability for a typical individual over time. The optimal tradeoff between insurance and incentives is explored and the issue of excess variability is addressed by consideration of the analogue full-information economy and various restricted-contracting regimes.},
+  url      = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v58y1991i5p853-881..html}
+}
+
 @article{PhelanStacchetti2001,
   author={Christopher Phelan and Ennio Stacchetti},
   title={Sequential Equilibria in a Ramsey Tax Model},
@@ -1342,6 +1373,199 @@ @article{APS1990
   pages = {1041-1063}
 }
 
+@article{APS1986,
+  author  = {Dilip Abreu and David Pearce and Ennio Stacchetti},
+  title   = {Optimal Cartel Equilibria with Imperfect Monitoring},
+  journal = {Journal of Economic Theory},
+  volume  = {39},
+  number  = {1},
+  pages   = {251--269},
+  year    = {1986},
+  month   = {June},
+  doi     = {10.1016/0022-0531(86)90028-1}
+}
+
+@article{AguiarGopinath2006,
+  author  = {Mark Aguiar and Gita Gopinath},
+  title   = {Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account},
+  journal = {Journal of International Economics},
+  volume  = {69},
+  number  = {1},
+  pages   = {64--83},
+  year    = {2006},
+  doi     = {10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.05.005}
+}
+
+@article{AguiarGopinath2007,
+  author  = {Mark Aguiar and Gita Gopinath},
+  title   = {Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend},
+  journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
+  volume  = {115},
+  number  = {1},
+  pages   = {69--102},
+  year    = {2007},
+  doi     = {10.1086/511283}
+}
+
+@article{Atkeson1991,
+  author  = {Andrew Atkeson},
+  title   = {International Lending with Moral Hazard and Risk of Repudiation},
+  journal = {Econometrica},
+  volume  = {59},
+  number  = {4},
+  pages   = {1069--1089},
+  year    = {1991},
+  doi     = {10.2307/2938174}
+}
+
+@article{AtkesonLucas1992,
+  author  = {Andrew Atkeson and Robert E. Lucas, Jr.},
+  title   = {On Efficient Distribution with Private Information},
+  journal = {Review of Economic Studies},
+  volume  = {59},
+  number  = {3},
+  pages   = {427--453},
+  year    = {1992},
+  doi     = {10.2307/2297858}
+}
+
+@article{BulowRogoff1989a,
+  author  = {Jeremy Bulow and Kenneth Rogoff},
+  title   = {A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt},
+  journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
+  volume  = {97},
+  number  = {1},
+  pages   = {155--178},
+  year    = {1989},
+  doi     = {10.1086/261596}
+}
+
+@article{BulowRogoff1989b,
+  author  = {Jeremy Bulow and Kenneth Rogoff},
+  title   = {Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?},
+  journal = {American Economic Review},
+  volume  = {79},
+  number  = {1},
+  pages   = {43--50},
+  year    = {1989}
+}
+
+@article{EatonGersowitz1981,
+  author  = {Jonathan Eaton and Mark Gersovitz},
+  title   = {Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis},
+  journal = {Review of Economic Studies},
+  volume  = {48},
+  number  = {2},
+  pages   = {289--309},
+  year    = {1981}
+}
+
+@article{EichengreenPortes1986,
+  author  = {Barry Eichengreen and Richard Portes},
+  title   = {Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences},
+  journal = {European Economic Review},
+  volume  = {30},
+  number  = {3},
+  pages   = {599--640},
+  year    = {1986}
+}
+
+@article{FudenbergHolmstromMilgrom1990,
+  author  = {Drew Fudenberg and Bengt Holmstrom and Paul Milgrom},
+  title   = {Short-Term Contracts and Long-Term Agency Relationships},
+  journal = {Journal of Economic Theory},
+  volume  = {51},
+  number  = {1},
+  pages   = {1--31},
+  year    = {1990},
+  doi     = {10.1016/0022-0531(90)90048-O}
+}
+
+@article{GertlerRogoff1990,
+  author  = {Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff},
+  title   = {North-South Lending and Endogenous Domestic Capital Market Inefficiencies},
+  journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
+  volume  = {26},
+  number  = {2},
+  pages   = {245--266},
+  year    = {1990},
+  doi     = {10.1016/0304-3932(90)90022-V}
+}
+
+@article{GrossmanHart1983,
+  author  = {Sanford J. Grossman and Oliver D. Hart},
+  title   = {An Analysis of the Principal-Agent Problem},
+  journal = {Econometrica},
+  volume  = {51},
+  number  = {1},
+  pages   = {7--45},
+  year    = {1983},
+  doi     = {10.2307/1912246}
+}
+
+@article{GrossmanVanHuyck1988,
+  author  = {Herschel I. Grossman and John B. Van Huyck},
+  title   = {Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation},
+  journal = {American Economic Review},
+  volume  = {78},
+  number  = {5},
+  pages   = {1088--1097},
+  year    = {1988}
+}
+
+@incollection{LindertMorton1989,
+  author    = {Peter H. Lindert and Peter J. Morton},
+  title     = {How Sovereign Debt Has Worked},
+  booktitle = {Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System},
+  editor    = {Jeffrey D. Sachs},
+  publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
+  pages     = {39--106},
+  year      = {1989}
+}
+
+@article{NeuemeyerPerri2005,
+  author  = {Andr{\'e}s Neumeyer and Fabrizio Perri},
+  title   = {Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates},
+  journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
+  volume  = {52},
+  number  = {2},
+  pages   = {345--380},
+  year    = {2005},
+  doi     = {10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.04.011}
+}
+
+@article{Rogerson1985,
+  author  = {William P. Rogerson},
+  title   = {The First-Order Approach to Principal-Agent Problems},
+  journal = {Econometrica},
+  volume  = {53},
+  number  = {6},
+  pages   = {1357--1367},
+  year    = {1985},
+  doi     = {10.2307/1913212}
+}
+
+@article{ThomasWorrall1990,
+  author  = {Jonathan Thomas and Tim Worrall},
+  title   = {Income Fluctuation and Asymmetric Information: An Example of a Repeated Principal-Agent Problem},
+  journal = {Journal of Economic Theory},
+  volume  = {51},
+  number  = {2},
+  pages   = {367--390},
+  year    = {1990}
+}
+
+@article{Tsyrennikov2013,
+  author  = {Viktor Tsyrennikov},
+  title   = {Capital Flows Under Moral Hazard},
+  journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
+  volume  = {60},
+  number  = {1},
+  pages   = {92--108},
+  year    = {2013},
+  doi     = {10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.11.006}
+}
+
 @article{HarrisonKreps1979,
   author={Harrison, J. Michael and Kreps, David M.},
   title={Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets},
@@ -1891,11 +2115,12 @@ @book{LasotaMackey1994
 }
 
 @book{Ljungqvist2012,
-  author  = {Ljungqvist, L and Sargent, T J},
-  publisher = {MIT Press},
+  author  = {Lars Ljungqvist and Thomas J. Sargent},
+  publisher = {The MIT Press},
   title   = {Recursive Macroeconomic Theory},
   edition = {4},
-  year    = {2018}
+  year    = {2018},
+  isbn    = {9780262038669}
 }
 
 @article{Lucas1978,
@@ -2875,3 +3100,131 @@ @article{szoke2022estimating
   year    = {2022},
   doi     = {10.1016/j.jet.2021.105225}
 }
+
+@article{EichengrehenPortes1986,
+  author  = {Barry Eichengreen and Richard Portes},
+  title   = {Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences},
+  journal = {European Economic Review},
+  year    = {1986},
+  volume  = {30},
+  number  = {3},
+  pages   = {599--640}
+}
+
+@article{bhandari2025survey,
+  title={Survey data and subjective beliefs in business cycle models},
+  author={Bhandari, Anmol and Borovi{\v{c}}ka, Jaroslav and Ho, Paul},
+  journal={Review of Economic Studies},
+  volume={92},
+  number={3},
+  pages={1375--1437},
+  year={2025},
+  publisher={Oxford University Press UK}
+}
+
+@article{BhandariBorovickaHo2024,
+  author    = {Bhandari, Anmol and Borov{\v{c}}ka, Jaroslav and Ho, Paul},
+  title     = {Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models},
+  journal   = {Review of Economic Studies},
+  year      = {2024},
+  volume    = {91},
+  number    = {3},
+  pages     = {1359--1395},
+  doi       = {10.1093/restud/rdad082},
+  note      = {NBER Working Paper No.\ 25192}
+}
+
+@article{IlutSchneider2014,
+  author    = {Ilut, Cosmin L. and Schneider, Martin},
+  title     = {Ambiguous Business Cycles},
+  journal   = {American Economic Review},
+  year      = {2014},
+  volume    = {104},
+  number    = {8},
+  pages     = {2368--2399},
+  doi       = {10.1257/aer.104.8.2368}
+}
+
+@article{ChristianoEichenbaumTrabandt2016,
+  author    = {Christiano, Lawrence J. and Eichenbaum, Martin S.
+               and Trabandt, Mathias},
+  title     = {Unemployment and Business Cycles},
+  journal   = {Econometrica},
+  year      = {2016},
+  volume    = {84},
+  number    = {4},
+  pages     = {1523--1569},
+  doi       = {10.3982/ECTA11776}
+}
+
+@article{Shimer2005,
+  author    = {Shimer, Robert},
+  title     = {The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies},
+  journal   = {American Economic Review},
+  year      = {2005},
+  volume    = {95},
+  number    = {1},
+  pages     = {25--49},
+  doi       = {10.1257/0002828053828572}
+}
+
+@book{Shimer2010,
+  author    = {Shimer, Robert},
+  title     = {Labor Markets and Business Cycles},
+  publisher = {Princeton University Press},
+  year      = {2010},
+  series    = {CREI Lectures in Macroeconomics}
+}
+
+@techreport{Schmidt2016,
+  author      = {Schmidt, Lawrence D. W.},
+  title       = {Climbing and Falling Off the Ladder: Asset Pricing
+                 Implications of Labor Market Event Risk},
+  institution = {University of California, San Diego},
+  type        = {Working Paper},
+  year        = {2016}
+}
+
+@article{MankiwReisWolfers2003,
+  author    = {Mankiw, N. Gregory and Reis, Ricardo and Wolfers, Justin},
+  title     = {Disagreement about Inflation Expectations},
+  journal   = {NBER Macroeconomics Annual},
+  year      = {2003},
+  volume    = {18},
+  pages     = {209--248},
+  doi       = {10.1086/ma.18.3585256}
+}
+
+@article{RavennaWalsh2008,
+  author    = {Ravenna, Federico and Walsh, Carl E.},
+  title     = {Vacancies, Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve},
+  journal   = {European Economic Review},
+  year      = {2008},
+  volume    = {52},
+  number    = {8},
+  pages     = {1494--1521},
+  doi       = {10.1016/j.euroecorev.2008.03.001}
+}
+
+@article{BorovickaHansen2014,
+  author    = {Borov{\v{c}}ka, Jaroslav and Hansen, Lars Peter},
+  title     = {Examining Macroeconomic Models through the Lens of Asset Pricing},
+  journal   = {Journal of Econometrics},
+  year      = {2014},
+  volume    = {183},
+  number    = {1},
+  pages     = {67--90},
+  doi       = {10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.06.006}
+}
+
+@article{CoibionGorodnichenko2015,
+  author    = {Coibion, Olivier and Gorodnichenko, Yuriy},
+  title     = {Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process:
+               A Simple Framework and New Facts},
+  journal   = {American Economic Review},
+  year      = {2015},
+  volume    = {105},
+  number    = {8},
+  pages     = {2644--2678},
+  doi       = {10.1257/aer.20130921}
+}