You signed in with another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You signed out in another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You switched accounts on another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.Dismiss alert
Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: lectures/additive_functionals.md
+9-6Lines changed: 9 additions & 6 deletions
Display the source diff
Display the rich diff
Original file line number
Diff line number
Diff line change
@@ -1093,6 +1093,13 @@ plt.legend()
1093
1093
plt.show()
1094
1094
```
1095
1095
1096
+
These plots help explain the *peculiar property* of the multiplicative martingale.
1097
+
1098
+
The rapid growth of variance, skewness, and kurtosis reveals that the distribution of $\widetilde M_t$ becomes increasingly right-skewed over time while $E[\widetilde M_t] = 1$ for all $t$.
1099
+
1100
+
This means that most probability density concentrates near zero, while a long right tail preserves the unit mean.
1101
+
1102
+
1096
1103
### Simulating a multiplicative martingale again
1097
1104
1098
1105
Next, we want a program to simulate the likelihood ratio process $\{ \tilde{M}_t \}_{t=0}^\infty$.
After accomplishing this, we want to display and study histograms of $\tilde{M}_T^i$ for various values of $T$.
1104
1111
1105
-
Here is code that accomplishes these tasks.
1106
-
1107
-
### Sample paths
1108
-
1109
-
Let's write a program to simulate sample paths of $\{ x_t, y_{t} \}_{t=0}^{\infty}$.
1112
+
Let's first write a program to simulate sample paths of $\{ x_t, y_{t} \}_{t=0}^{\infty}$.
1110
1113
1111
1114
We'll do this by formulating the additive functional as a linear state space model and putting the [LinearStateSpace](https://github.com/QuantEcon/QuantEcon.py/blob/master/quantecon/lss.py) class to work via our `AMF_LSS_VAR` class {ref}`defined above <amf_lss>`.
1112
1115
@@ -1261,7 +1264,7 @@ plt.tight_layout()
1261
1264
plt.show()
1262
1265
```
1263
1266
1264
-
These probability density functions help us understand mechanics underlying the **peculiar property** of our multiplicative martingale
1267
+
These probability density functions again help us understand mechanics underlying the **peculiar property** of our multiplicative martingale
1265
1268
1266
1269
* As $T$ grows, most of the probability mass shifts leftward toward zero.
1267
1270
* For example, note that most mass is near $1$ for $T =10$ or $T = 100$ but
0 commit comments