cb #36: hp_burn force-tick count + Geo deflect bug fix — team total -3.0% -> +0.36%

Two un-stacked fixes (cb_sim.py), validated by cb_component_diff on 090946:
1. HP-BURN FORCE-TICK COUNT: activate_hp_burns fired flat once-per-cast; now once
   PER activate_hp_burns effect (count derived from the skill's kind-9002
   ForceStatusEffectTick effects via load_game_profiles — Ninja A2/62002 has 3,
   one per hit). Burn stays GLOBALLY SINGULAR on the bar (per-effect force-tick
   count, NOT coexistence — which ballooned to +78% and was ruled out). Venom A1's
   2 activate_poisons still share one budget (separate handler, untouched).
   hp_burn -31.6% -> +3.1% (Ninja -33% -> +7.6%); did NOT balloon (under +20% gate).
2. GEO STONEGUARD DEFLECT BUG: base deflect used buff_mult("strengthen_15", 0.15)
   which resolves to the Strengthen DR factor 0.85 (the 0.15 default never used)
   -> reflected 85% of team damage (~5.7x over). Fixed to the literal 0.15 the
   comment always intended. passive +25.7% -> +0.4% (Geo +40.8% -> -53.5% per-hero).

TEAM TOTAL -3.0% -> +0.36%. Survival green (Magic/Spirit/Void T50, Force wipes);
22 tests pass. Re-baseline LOCKED_TOTAL_DMG 8,628,236.84 -> 10,187,844.20.

HONEST residuals (documented, NOT fitted): Geo per-hero passive now -53.5% under
(the 0.85 bug masked Geo's deeper WM/burn/DEF-mit unders — #32 territory); spurious
small Maneater/Venom passives (Phantom-Touch attribution) offset it at team level;
bonus-proc under-fire left as-is (forcing it makes team passive worse, +6.6%).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SCKiWFsFcWRBkL4kWf1q6b

Author: SnoopLawg

tests/test_cb_sim_regression.py

@@ -130,8 +130,25 @@ class TestCBSimDeterministicSmoke(unittest.TestCase):
     #   owned heroes (Demytha A1 3.2x Count2 -> 6.4 total): Demytha direct
     #   -54.5% -> -8.9% on 090946. (Multi-effect heroes Venom/Ninja were already
     #   summed by load_game_profiles.) Minimal-team total rises accordingly.
+    #   Re-baselined 2026-06-29 — task #36 (HP-burn force-tick COUNT +
+    #   Geo deflect bug). TWO game-truth fixes, net +1.56M on this synthetic
+    #   (crit-off) minimal team; cb_turns unchanged at 23 (both fixes only
+    #   touch OUTGOING boss damage, not hero HP/cadence):
+    #     (1) activate_hp_burns now fires once PER kind=9002 ForceStatusEffectTick
+    #         effect (Ninja A2 = 3 distinct per-hit burns) instead of a flat
+    #         once-per-cast dedupe. Burn stays GLOBALLY singular on the bar; this
+    #         is per-effect force-tick COUNT, NOT coexistence. Closed hp_burn
+    #         -31.6% -> +3.1% on Spirit fixture 090946. (Venom A1's two
+    #         activate_POISONS still collapse to one shared budget — only the
+    #         burn path is per-effect.)
+    #     (2) Geo Stoneguard deflect base was `team_taken *
+    #         buff_mult("strengthen_15", 0.15)` — but that registry entry
+    #         resolves to the Strengthen damage-reduction factor 0.85 (the 0.15
+    #         fallback was never used), so the base reflected 85% of team damage
+    #         (~5.7x over). Now the literal 0.15 (15% deflect). Un-stacks team
+    #         passive +25.7% -> +0.4% and team TOTAL -3.0% -> +0.36% on 090946.
     LOCKED_CB_TURNS = 23
-    LOCKED_TOTAL_DMG = 8_628_236.84  # +multi-hit owned parser (Demytha 6.4x)
+    LOCKED_TOTAL_DMG = 10_187_844.20  # task #36: burn force-tick count + deflect 0.15 fix
     LOCKED_TOTAL_TOL = 20.0  # widened for additive arithmetic noise
 
     def _build_men_team(self):

tools/cb_sim.py

@@ -1796,7 +1796,17 @@ def _cb_turn(self, tick: int):
                         # under on T50 (real ramps 37K->78K/event as the boss
                         # damage ramps). Grounded: Geo deflect was the biggest
                         # remaining per-hero gap (Geo -53.8% @ Spirit 090946).
-                        base_deflect = team_aoe_dmg_taken * buff_mult("strengthen_15", 0.15)
+                        # Deflect 15% of the actual aoe damage allies took.
+                        # NOTE: must be the LITERAL 0.15 — a prior version used
+                        # `buff_mult("strengthen_15", 0.15)`, but that registry
+                        # entry resolves to the Strengthen DAMAGE-REDUCTION
+                        # factor 0.85 (take 85% damage), NOT the 0.15 fallback,
+                        # so the base deflect reflected 85% of team damage (~5.7x
+                        # over). Grounded on 090946: real Geo deflect = 24 events
+                        # / 1.37M; the 0.85 bug put sim base alone at 1.57M.
+                        # Fixed -> team passive +25.7% -> ~0% (task #36).
+                        STONEGUARD_DEFLECT_FRAC = 0.15
+                        base_deflect = team_aoe_dmg_taken * STONEGUARD_DEFLECT_FRAC
                         # Reflect bonus (skill 48805 Effects 488055/488056,
                         # "0.03*TRG_HP" capped at the CB 75K DoT cap): ONE 30%
                         # roll per boss AoE while a Geo-placed burn is on the
@@ -2792,11 +2802,11 @@ def _glance_dampen(sig: str) -> float:
                 return 1.0 - WEAK_HIT_GLANCE_CHANCE
             return 0.0 if glance_this_cast else 1.0
 
-        # HP-Burn activation is once PER SKILL (game-truth: effect 9002 fires
-        # once/skill, not per hit). load_game_profiles emits one activate
-        # effect per hit, so dedupe to a single activation per cast — otherwise
-        # Ninja A2 (3 hits) triggers each burn 3x, ~3x over-attributing burn.
-        _burns_activated_this_cast = False
+        # HP-Burn activation fires once PER activate_hp_burns effect (game-truth
+        # FORCE-TICK COUNT, task #36): a multi-hit attack that places+ticks a
+        # fresh burn each hit (Ninja A2 = 3) produces N distinct instant ticks
+        # per cast. load_game_profiles emits one activate_hp_burns per kind=9002
+        # effect, so the burn handler below does NOT dedupe — see its comment.
         # Same once-per-cast guard for poison activation: Venom A1 loads TWO
         # activate_poisons effects (one per hit) but "activate up to 2 poisons"
         # is ONE budget per cast, not per hit. Grounded (090946): sim 22 vs real
@@ -2971,11 +2981,26 @@ def _glance_dampen(sig: str) -> float:
                                           if s.debuff_type != "poison_5pct"]
 
             elif eff.effect_type == "activate_hp_burns":
-                # Once per skill cast (see _burns_activated_this_cast above) —
-                # NOT once per hit.
-                if _burns_activated_this_cast:
-                    continue
-                _burns_activated_this_cast = True
+                # FORCE-TICK COUNT is per-skill game-truth, NOT once-per-cast.
+                # load_game_profiles emits one activate_hp_burns per kind=9002
+                # ForceStatusEffectTick effect, and a multi-hit attack that
+                # places + ticks a fresh burn EACH hit produces N distinct burn
+                # ticks per cast (Ninja A2 skill 62002 = 3 ApplyDebuff(HP Burn)
+                # +ForceStatusEffectTick pairs -> 3 instant ticks/cast). The
+                # burn stays GLOBALLY SINGULAR on the bar (each hit re-places +
+                # ticks the same one slot), so this is NOT coexistence — the
+                # natural boss-turn tick still credits one slot. We simply fire
+                # one force-tick PER activate effect (no dedupe), deriving the
+                # count from the skill's effects (task #36). This closes the
+                # burn-under (-32%): real Ninja = 83 ticks (~21 A2 casts x3
+                # force + natural), sim previously fired 1 force/cast.
+                #
+                # NOTE: Venom A1's TWO activate_poisons are a SHARED single
+                # budget ("activate up to 2 poisons"), NOT distinct per-hit
+                # ticks, so the poison path below KEEPS its once-per-cast
+                # dedupe (_poisons_activated_this_cast). Only the burn path
+                # is per-effect.
+                #
                 # Ninja A2 / Sicia A2: instantly trigger all HP Burn debuffs
                 # (1 tick each). GAME-TRUTH (clean2 tick log, kind 3014):
                 # activated tick damage credits the BURN'S OWNER (placer =