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Update Capture placeholder site
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content/_index.md

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title = "Local Conformal Calibration of Dynamics Uncertainty from Semantic Images"
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title = "Particle-based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces"
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[extra]
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display_title = "Local Conformal Calibration of Dynamics Uncertainty from Semantic Images "
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display_title = "Particle-based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces"
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authors = [
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{name = "Luís Marques", url = "https://marquesluis.com/"},
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{name = "Luís Marques", url = "https://marquesluis.com/", contribution = true},
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{name = "Kristian Popov", url = "https://www.linkedin.com/in/kristian-c-popov/", contribution = true},
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{name = "Dmitry Berenson", url = "https://berenson.robotics.umich.edu/"}
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]
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venue = {name = "17th International Workshop on the Algorithmic Foundations of Robotics (WAFR) 2026", url = "https://algorithmic-robotics.org/"}
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contribution = "denotes equal contribution."
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venue = {name = "Under Review", url = ""}
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buttons = [
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# {name = "ArXiv", url = ""},
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# {name = "PDF", url = ""},
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# {name = "Code", url = "https://github.com/UM-ARM-Lab/ocular_code"}
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]
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katex = true
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large_card = true
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favicon = true
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large_card = false
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favicon = false
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<!-- <div class="abstract-with-figure"> -->
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<!-- <div class="text-column"> -->
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We introduce **O**bservation-aware **C**onformal **U**ncertainty **L**ocal-C**a**lib**r**ation (**OCULAR**), a conformal prediction-based algorithm that uses perceptual information to provide uncertainty quantification guarantees for unseen test-time environments. While previous conformal approaches lack the ability to discriminate between state-action space regions leading to higher or lower model mismatch, and require environment-specific data, our method uses data collected from visually similar environments to provably calibrate a given linear Gaussian dynamics model of arbitrary fidelity. The prediction regions generated from **OCULAR** are guaranteed to contain the future system states with, at least, a user-set likelihood, despite both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty—i.e., uncertainty arising from both stochastic disturbances and lack of data. Our guarantees are non-asymptotic and distribution-free, not requiring strong assumptions about the unknown real system dynamics. Our calibration procedure enables distinguishing between observation-velocity-action inputs leading to higher and lower next-state-uncertainty, which is helpful for probabilistically-safe planning. We numerically validate our algorithm on a double-integrator system subject to random perturbations and significant model mismatch, using both a simplified sensor and a more realistic simulated camera. Our approach appropriately quantifies uncertainty both when in-distribution and out-of-distribution, being comparatively volume-efficient to baselines requiring environment-specific data.
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<!-- </div> -->
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More comming soon! Stay tuned.
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More comming soon! Stay tuned.

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templates/index.html

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<a href="{{ author.url | default(value = this.path ~ '#') | safe }}" target="_blank">
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{{- author.name -}}
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</a>
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{%- if author.contribution -%}
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<sup><small></small></sup>
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{%- endif -%}
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{%- if not loop.last -%}
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&comma;
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{%- endif -%}
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{%- if author.contribution -%}
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<sup><small>*</small></sup>
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{%- endif -%}
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{%- if not loop.last -%}
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&#32;
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{% endif %}
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</h2>
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{% if this.extra.contribution %}
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<p>
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<sup><small>*</small></sup>{{ this.extra.contribution }}
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<sup><small></small></sup>{{ this.extra.contribution }}
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</p>
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{% endif %}
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<div>

templates/macros/seo.html

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{% macro seo(page) %}
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{% set url = get_url(path = page.path, trailing_slash = true) %}
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{% set card_file = page.extra.card | default(value = 'card.jpg') %}
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{% set card = get_url(path = page.path ~ card_file) %}
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{% if page.extra.card %}
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{% set card = get_url(path = page.path ~ page.extra.card) %}
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{% endif %}
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<meta property="og:title" content="{{ page.title }}">
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<meta name="author" content="{{ page.extra.authors | map(attribute = 'name') | join(sep = ', ') }}">
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{% if page.description %}
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{% endif %}
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<link rel="canonical" href="{{ url | safe }}">
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<meta property="og:url" content="{{ url | safe }}">
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<meta property="og:image" content="{{ card | safe }}">
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<meta property="og:image:type" content="image/png">
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{% if page.extra.card %}
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<meta property="og:image" content="{{ card | safe }}">
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{% endif %}
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<meta property="og:type" content="article">
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{% if page.extra.card %}
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<meta name="twitter:card" content="{% if page.extra.large_card %}summary_large_image{% else %}summary{% endif %}">
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<meta property="twitter:image" content="{{ card | safe }}">
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{% endif %}
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{% if page.extra.venue.date or page.date %}
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<meta property="article:published_time" content="{{ page.extra.venue.date | default(value = page.date) | date(format='%+') }}">
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{% endif %}
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<meta name="twitter:card" content="{% if page.extra.large_card %}summary_large_image{% else %}summary{% endif %}">
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<meta property="twitter:image" content="{{ card | safe }}">
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<meta property="twitter:title" content="{{ page.title }}">
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<script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BlogPosting","author":[{% for author in page.extra.authors %}{"@type":"Person","name":"{{ author.name }}"}{% if not loop.last %},{% endif %}{% endfor %}],{% if page.extra.venue.date or page.date %}"dateModified":"{{ page.updated | default(value = page.extra.venue.date) | default(value = page.date) | date(format='%+') }}","datePublished":"{{ page.extra.venue.date | default(value = page.date) | date(format='%+') }}",{% endif %}{% if page.description %}"description":"{{ page.description }}",{% endif %}"headline":"{{ page.title }}","image":"{{ card | safe }}","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"{{ url | safe }}"},"url":"{{ url | safe }}"}</script>
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{% endmacro %}
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<script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BlogPosting","author":[{% for author in page.extra.authors %}{"@type":"Person","name":"{{ author.name }}"}{% if not loop.last %},{% endif %}{% endfor %}],{% if page.extra.venue.date or page.date %}"dateModified":"{{ page.updated | default(value = page.extra.venue.date) | default(value = page.date) | date(format='%+') }}","datePublished":"{{ page.extra.venue.date | default(value = page.date) | date(format='%+') }}",{% endif %}{% if page.description %}"description":"{{ page.description }}",{% endif %}"headline":"{{ page.title }}",{% if page.extra.card %}"image":"{{ card | safe }}",{% endif %}"mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"{{ url | safe }}"},"url":"{{ url | safe }}"}</script>
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{% endmacro %}

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