Fix onboarding UI jank (Loading flash + canonicalize double-hop)

[RhysSullivan]

Two render flashes in the cloud onboarding flow, both surfaced by watching the
recording from the new auth-routing flow test (#1006). Both are pre-existing —
not introduced by the slug work.

1. create-org: "Create your organization" → "Loading" → back

The whole /create-org header was gated on the pending-invitations atom being
initial or waiting. That atom is keyed on ReactivityKey.auth, so the
create-org submit — which invalidates authWriteKeys — put it into waiting
and flipped the page to "Loading" and back. Invitations are empty for ~every
new user, so a full-page "Loading" was never the right thing to show.

Now the create form renders immediately; the header defaults to "Create your
organization" (→ "You've been invited" only once invitations resolve to >0),
and the skeleton shows only on the genuine first load (initial), in the
invitations slot. A refetch is waiting, not initial, so it no longer
replaces the page.

2. connect-MCP: the app sidebar flashes in

Continue to app / Skip for now navigated to the bare /{-$orgSlug},
which mounts the shell at / and then OrgSlugGate fires a second
navigation to canonicalize / → /<slug>. That double hop is the window where
the shell paints over the still-mounted connect-MCP page. Now it navigates
straight to /<slug> (the page already has the org slug from useAuth), so the
shell mounts once.

Verification

Typecheck, lint, format clean. Re-ran the #1006 auth-routing flow scenario
against this branch's code (green) and re-watched the recording — the
create→loading→create flicker and the sidebar flash on the connect step are
gone. Independent of #1006 (different files); either can merge first.

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commit: 3e44329