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feat: Certified reasoning boundaries with statistical guarantees (CROP) #185

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Description

@acailic

Paper Reference

  • Title: Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes (CROP)
  • Authors: Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Hanjie Chen, Guha Balakrishnan
  • Year: 2026
  • URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30085
  • Venue: arXiv preprint

Paper Summary

Introduces a verifier-agnostic calibration procedure for reasoning trace certification. Given any step-level risk proxy, CROP selects a calibrated threshold and returns the longest contiguous prefix without errors, routing uncertified suffixes for review. Rigorously controls the marginal probability that the returned prefix contains an annotated error.

Proposed Feature

Implement certified reasoning boundaries that visually mark which portions of reasoning traces are statistically certified as error-free:

Core Capabilities

  • Confidence Shading: Color-code reasoning chain segments by confidence level (high/medium/low) based on conformal prediction
  • Error Boundary Markers: Place visual markers where reasoning chains transition from certified to uncertain
  • Review Queue: Automatically flag uncertified trace suffixes for human review
  • Calibration Dashboard: Show calibration metrics and coverage guarantees per session

Technical Approach

  • Implement conformal prediction scoring in the SDK for step-level risk assessment
  • Add confidence annotations to events in the tracing pipeline
  • Build confidence visualization component with color-coded timeline
  • Add filtered review queue in the frontend

Impact

This would give Peaky Peek a unique statistical foundation for failure analysis, going beyond heuristic approaches. Users can trust that certified portions of traces are error-free and focus review attention on uncertain regions.

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enhancement, paper-inspired, analytics

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